Smartphone Market To Shrink 15% This Year Due To Memory Crisis (theregister.com)
- Reference: 0183947174
- News link: https://mobile.slashdot.org/story/26/06/17/2022201/smartphone-market-to-shrink-15-this-year-due-to-memory-crisis
- Source link: https://www.theregister.com/personal-tech/2026/06/17/smartphone-market-to-shrink-15-percent-this-year-due-to-memory-crisis/5257652
> The firm found that the primary smartphone market (meaning new devices) contracted 4.4 percent in the first quarter of this year, despite sales channels front-loading (meaning stockpiling) product inventory, as device prices begin to rise sharply. As CCS notes, this casts an ominous shadow on the outlook for the rest of the year, and it seems things have worsened since The Register first started reporting on the smartphone memory woes.
>
> Back in January, the forecast was for handset price rises of 6-8 percent, while the most pessimistic outlook was that the global market might contract as much as 5.2 percent. [2]By February, analysts were expecting to see a decline in shipments of around 8 percent across the global market, and for prices to increase by about 14 percent.
>
> The root cause of all this is the AI craze, which has seen huge demand for high-performance GPU-filled servers to process it all. Chipmakers have moved to capitalize on this by prioritizing production of high-margin memory components for those servers, rather than making the plain old DRAM and NAND needed for PCs and phones.
"The memory chip crisis shows no sign of slowing down in the near future, ramping up the pressure on manufacturers and consumers. Memory components now account for more than 30 percent of a manufacturer's bill of materials in some smartphones." said CCS research analyst Ben Hatton. "The full impact has yet to be felt in many regions, but it's clear that device prices will accelerate over the rest of the year."
[1] https://www.theregister.com/personal-tech/2026/06/17/smartphone-market-to-shrink-15-percent-this-year-due-to-memory-crisis/5257652
[2] https://hardware.slashdot.org/story/26/02/27/008259/memory-price-hikes-will-kill-off-budget-pcs-and-smartphones-analyst-warns
can confirm (Score:2)
I was going to buy a new phone last month but then I didn't because of the prices. Moto normally deeply discounts the old model but didn't even do that, their old models stayed fairly expensive, and the new models are very expensive (compared to normal, they still aren't as cracked out as Samsung.)
Re: (Score:2)
> I was going to buy a new phone last month but then I didn't
Same, I forgot to.
"Crisis" (Score:2)
AI shit the bed and we're calling it a "crisis", despite critics for years warning that AI was going to screw up the supply chain.
Re: "Crisis" (Score:2)
Don't forget the "and amount to absolutely jack shit in the end"
Downstream inflation like used cars 5 years ago (Score:2)
It's also cascading down to the used phone market. I haven't bought a brand new top-line phone in 18 years because I'm not a heavy user. I buy used/refurbed models from 3-4 years ago and use them for 3-5 years. Typically I could get them for $150-$275 by timing a purchase with new-model release cycles, when early-adopters flood the market with castoffs, so the level 2 adopters upgrade to a used level 1, etc. This past Christmas season I considered upgrading, but there was noticeable across-the-board inflati
It’s a bubble (Score:2)
If there really was a long term market for vastly more chips, the current manufacturing base would have spent the many billions to ramp up production. Instead, they just are selling to the big players for 3-4x the price+ and are neglecting the consumer market hoping they will just make short term money with nothing else changing. Jokes on them though, China is funding internally owned companies to spin up ram production to make up for demand and if it’s successful it will be a thorn in the establish
Re: (Score:2)
The RAM suppliers aren't good at predicting demand. In 2023 there was an oversupply that tanked their margins. Today there's a "supply crisis". Ramping up now would guarantee another oversupply in 3 more years. It's as simple as that.
Re: (Score:1)
They're ramping up regardless through. Quite a few new fabs are being built and capacity of existing ones is being expanded. Also we're seeing new entrants into the market, like Chinese CXMT that have brought their DDR5 tech to the market. Finally Taiwanese are taking another shot at the DDR market as Nanya is finishing build-out of their Fab 5A which is intended for 10nm grade processes, which means that DDR4 and LPDDR4 supply will soon grow significantly as that fab starts.
And people are keeping them longer? (Score:3, Informative)
Smartphones are so far ahead of what people use them for, perhaps some are not upgrading every year like they use to. Given the price of the upgrades, inflation and everything else going on, maybe people are keeping them longer too.
Excuses (Score:2)
While some may point to $random_crisis_of_the_day as the reason folks aren't replacing their
phones, the reality is probably far easier to explain.
Phones are just stupid expensive all the way around. Especially if you are one of those folks
who have to have the bleeding edge in tech to flash around as nerd cred.
Personally, I don't need eleventy four bazillion giga-pixels across half a dozen camera lenses.
( I have a real camera and enough lenses to outfit a club for that thank you very much )
I neither want nor
Surely it's AI (Score:2)
It couldn't possibly be the fact that there has been zero innovation and a total regression of fundamental phone features and basic usability of phones.
I just had to replace a phone for a family member (Score:3)
And I bought more or less the same phone I bought last year but it was $200 more. So yeah. Nobody is going to be looking to upgrade they're going to hang on to what they've got unless it breaks.
Under normal circumstances there's at least a dozen companies that would be manufacturing ram right now but with antitrust law enforcement Up in smoke nobody is going to take the risk because if they try one of the big ram producers will just temporarily lower their prices and run them out of business.
Elections have consequences and one of them is you don't get cool electronics anymore.
Re: (Score:2)
> And I bought more or less the same phone I bought last year but it was $200 more. So yeah. Nobody is going to be looking to upgrade they're going to hang on to what they've got unless it breaks.
There is a group of people who believe their self worth is based upon owning the newest greatest shiny thing every year. Sales to that group are mostly price insensitive, and they will pay whatever it costs.
There's also people that want tech to use it (Score:2)
Tech is fun.
Also there's a good reason to spend extra money sometimes. I think I've mentioned it before but the newer Qualcomm phones have vastly Superior 5G modems compared to the Samsung ones or heaven help you those cheap Mediatek ones. If you're in an area with good signal you won't notice it but if you're in a dead zone like I am having a more expensive phone with the fancy Qualcomm chipset is the difference between me getting text messages and phone calls and not.
It's not always about keeping
Re:I just had to replace a phone for a family memb (Score:4, Insightful)
> Elections have consequences and one of them is you don't get cool electronics anymore.
I know for you politics [1]is like the square hole that everything fits into [youtu.be], but the RAM shortage is just capitalism being capitalism (and you probably know the famous saying that it's the worst system except for everything else we've tried). It's been explained to death - the RAM manufacturers are worried that if they build more capacity, the AI bubble could pop and then they'd be left holding the bag.
I'm not even sure how you'd fix this situation. Some types of businesses are just extremely expensive to start, which is also why there aren't like 50 different competitors to Disney World.
[1] https://youtu.be/cUbIkNUFs-4
Re: (Score:2)
I don't think I could make it any plainer. If you voted for left-wing candidates that would enforce antitrust law other companies could safely enter the ram market. There have been several companies that talked about it and started to look into it and then they backed off for no apparent reason.
And no the bubble isn't going to pop. Ram manufacturers have orders locked in for the next 3 years. And RAM prices have been elevated for almost 2 years now. There was already a supply chain strain from those blo
Re: (Score:2)
Left-Wing candidates have been in charge off and on about half the time since
I've even been alive and they have yet to do anything other than the typical
politician business-as-usual routine.
They've had ample opportunities to " fix " things and have done exactly squat
with it.
PS - Don't be so quick to throw that " old fart " tag around. Given your Slashdot
ID, you're already sailing on the edges of those waters as it is.
Re: (Score:2)
> And no the bubble isn't going to pop. Ram manufacturers have orders locked in for the next 3 years.
Heck, the story is still on the main page: [1]OpenAI Losses Increased Nearly 8X In 2025, With Spending Hitting $34 Billion [slashdot.org] AI isn't likely to go away, but the current level of spending isn't sustainable. Guess what's going to happen when the purse strings start getting tightened? Yep, those RAM orders might start going *poof* . Irrational exuberance is a well-known phenomenon, and anybody who paid attention during the dot-com boom knows exactly where this is heading.
The other big hole in your theory that th
[1] https://slashdot.org/story/26/06/17/0554244/openai-losses-increased-nearly-8x-in-2025-with-spending-hitting-34-billion
Re: (Score:1)
It takes 3-5 years to build and start a RAM fab.
There are quite a few being built around the world. First ones are expected to be started in about two years.
Your post is nonsense.
Re: (Score:2)
Or you could buy a very capable Moto G Power for $250, unlocked. [1]https://www.amazon.com/Motorol... [amazon.com]
[1] https://www.amazon.com/Motorola-Moto-Power-Unlocked-Camera/dp/B0DP5FW9QQ/ref=sr_1_2?crid=DR90SJM9C4X1&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.DEvpuWe5M_e5PhX2tJ00bjZ7Jc82rzCq1lzAyZi3ESBjbfHJVhaOEAC0M9KcMxL4Q5Ls2Qb1CdWKoJItIsGEYgVtA1WkR29FcLicmBBAorgzoDcx9w0Iy3Tci_FdvETp28Fi82ycLjYF3SA4hLlK7zthaucTbiqLtUToZUb7AIQ2xmWMnYm05iIfOVirdw8-c6gpc85KbYhZRu5IJO_Vm8Zs0t2nTFszqOthTTDDJ8E.OQCq4i7R33tj1l0DRwfuQhC20thX0vVnRTkjXbgeAtM&dib_tag=se&keywords=moto%2Bg%2Bpower&qid=1781750034&sprefix=moto%2Bg%2Bpow%2Caps%2C184&sr=8-2&ufe=app_do%3Aamzn1.fos.5998aa40-ec6f-4947-a68f-cd087fee0848&th=1