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Arizona Charges Kalshi With Illegal Gambling Operation

(Tuesday March 17, 2026 @11:30PM (BeauHD) from the legal-grey-area dept.)


Arizona has [1]filed criminal charges against Kalshi, [2]accusing it of operating an illegal gambling business . "Kalshi may brand itself as a 'prediction market,' but what it's actually doing is running an illegal gambling operation and taking bets on Arizona elections, both of which violate Arizona law," Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes said in a statement. The case could ultimately head to the Supreme Court to decide whether federal oversight by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission overrides state gambling laws. Bloomberg reports:

> While state regulators have taken steps to crack down on what they say is unlicensed betting on Kalshi's site, Arizona appears to be the first state to escalate to criminal charges. The charges cited in the complaint are misdemeanors, which carry less serious penalties than felonies. [...] Prediction market exchanges like Kalshi have said they should continue to be regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission despite opposition from some state officials, who argue the trading should come under state gambling laws.

>

> Arizona's criminal complaint follows Kalshi's move last week to block the state's gaming department from taking enforcement action against the company. "These are the first criminal charges of any kind filed against Kalshi in any court in the United States, but it will likely be the first of several," said Daniel Wallach, a sports and gaming attorney.



[1] https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/27886294-arizona-charges-against-kalshi/

[2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-17/arizona-charges-kalshi-with-operating-illegal-gambling-business


About damn time (Score:3)

by rsilvergun ( 571051 )

I am so tired of calling what are obvious gambling sites "prediction markets"

I find it genuinely frightening that there's a real possibility these gambling sites will get away with calling themselves securities because of how corrupt our national government here in America has become. Our president has sold over 2,000 pardons for literally billions of dollars and he has a 40% approval rating...

I don't even think the scale of corruption is something human beings can comprehend at this point. Never mind the illegal wars and the $5 billion dollars our president's son is on track to get from the companies that talked that President into invading Iran...

I cannot understand how any politically aware person could continue to support any of this. How can you not understand that it's going to bite you in the ass real soon... Christ if you're retired and on a fixed income it's biting you in the ass right now with higher gas prices and in a few months those are going to filter into all the prices. Never mind the extra money you spent on all those tariffs...

I can tell you that the extremely small tax cuts I got from the last round of reform didn't come close to making up for the cost of the tariffs. Because that was the point. The tariffs were used to offset huge tax cuts for the Epstein class that normally could not make it through Congress...

And then there's the Epstein files... And credible proof that the president raped a 13-year-old. The facts have been verified by several small journalist outlets because the big guys have been told don't touch it or else.

I mean I can go on and on and on about how every single institution designed to uphold the rule of law and protect you has collapsed and is failing. I get a lot of people aren't politically aware but for those that are how long do you think you can get away with all this?

I mean it's a big club and you ain't in it

Re: (Score:1)

by Anonymous Coward

> I mean it's a big club and you ain't in it

Your membership in the FASD club isn't something to brag about. Just sayin.

Re: (Score:1)

by anoncoward69 ( 6496862 )

Honestly it's just as much gambling as trading bitcoin or stocks is. Pleas tell me how it's really different in any way?

Re: (Score:2)

by porkchop_d_clown ( 39923 )

Bitcoin doesn't generally provide perverse incentives for people to manipulate political events or assassinate political leaders so they can win bets online.

Re: (Score:1)

by swillden ( 191260 )

> Honestly it's just as much gambling as trading bitcoin or stocks is.

Bitcoin, yes, stocks, no. The difference with stocks is that you're buying something with actual, real-world value, a piece of a functioning company that makes real products and sells them to real customers. Yes, you're hoping that the company will be successful enough to pay you a nice stream of dividends from its profits or, equivalently, to go up in share price, but this is no different from buying any other potentially revenue-generating asset.

When you put money into bitcoin or into a prediction mar

Re: (Score:2)

by sg_oneill ( 159032 )

Whats wild to me is a lot of Silicon Valley Tech Bro types actually treat these fucking things as genuine useful predictors, as if a bunch of gambling addicted basement folk somehow voltron up to form a giant soothsaying oracle..

When I say to people that I think silicon valley has lost its goddamn mind, I encourage people to deep dive on TESCREAL and realise just how profoundly weird some of these people actually are. And they are in charge. And using weird gambling "prediction market" sites to make decisio

Re: (Score:3)

by swillden ( 191260 )

> Whats wild to me is a lot of Silicon Valley Tech Bro types actually treat these fucking things as genuine useful predictors, as if a bunch of gambling addicted basement folk somehow voltron up to form a giant soothsaying oracle..

If it were just "gambling-addicted basement folk" that would indeed be crazy. But the idea -- and the reality -- is that it attracts interest from serious and well-informed people who know stuff and do their research. And prediction markets do have a pretty good track record; they tend to outperform experts a lot of the time. They did much better than pundits or pollsters at predicting Trump's wins, just to name one example.

I'm not worried about serious well-informed people (Score:2)

by rsilvergun ( 571051 )

Anyone can become addicted to gambling but those people will usually eventually figure it out and seek help. Probably after losing a lot of money but before they are homeless.

What I'm worried about is Young men. When it comes to gambling of this type young men are typically the main target because they don't know any better and it's easy to get them into bad habits because you do dumb shit when you're young especially when you're a man chock full of testosterone and something to prove.

We already hav

Re: (Score:2)

by Morromist ( 1207276 )

If I remember correctly predict it predicted trump losing in 2016 winning in 2020 and in 2024. Although the 2020 one predicted Biden until November 3rd when it switched to trump for 1 day, which was kinda funny. I still remember how pissy the people who lost that bet were.

Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

by igreaterthanu ( 1942456 )

There is a massive distinction between prediction markets and gambling. It is not the same thing at all. Notably, with prediction markets you are not betting against the house.

Re: About damn time (Score:2)

by hdyoung ( 5182939 )

You think those so-called prediction markets arent making money off the betting that goes on. Thats so cute. Its good to see that theres still a tiny bit of wide-eyed innocence in this world. Never change, little buddy.

Re: (Score:2)

by jonwil ( 467024 )

For a traditional bookmaker, you win if the thing you bet on happens and the bookie wins if it doesn't happen.

But for these prediction markets, the other side of the bet is some other punter, not the house. The prediction markets should in theory not care which outcome occurs since they should make the same money either way.

If you split those hairs any finer (Score:3)

by rsilvergun ( 571051 )

They're going to turn into dust.

You are putting up money with the expectation that if an event happens you will be paid out a great deal more money than you put up. Meanwhile the house here has structured the events to guarantee that they always come out significantly ahead financially.

That's gambling. That's what we call gambling. That's the definition of gambling.

And there are plenty of ways to gamble without betting against the house over in Las Vegas. These kind of bets have existed in Vegas

The last thing I saw - (Score:2)

by Travco ( 1872216 )

The people got better returns gambling on Sports and they did on Kalshi.

Probably because they were betting on something that they half knew about.

Block accounts from the state (Score:5, Insightful)

by gurps_npc ( 621217 )

Arizona can stop Arizonians from using the gambling web site, they cannot stop non-arizonians from betting on Arizona elections.

Uh-oh!! I'm having TOO MUCH FUN!!