News: 0181011218

  ARM Give a man a fire and he's warm for a day, but set fire to him and he's warm for the rest of his life (Terry Pratchett, Jingo)

Polymarket Gamblers Threaten To Kill Journalist Over Iran Missile Story (timesofisrael.com)

(Monday March 16, 2026 @06:00PM (BeauHD) from the behind-the-scenes dept.)


An anonymous reader quotes a report from the Times of Israel, written by journalist Emanuel Fabian:

> On Tuesday, March 10, a massive explosion shook the city of Beit Shemesh, just outside Jerusalem, in yet another Iranian ballistic missile attack during the ongoing war. Rescue services scrambled to the scene in search of possible casualties, though as it turned out, the projectile had struck a forested area just outside the city, around 500 meters from homes. On The Times of Israel's liveblog that day, I reported that the missile had hit an open area and no injuries were caused, citing the rescue services, as well as footage that emerged showing the massive explosion caused by the missile's warhead. But what I thought was a seemingly minor incident during the war has [1]turned into days of harassment and death threats against me .

Emanuel began receiving numerous emails, messages and phone calls from individuals urging him to change the report to say the missile had been intercepted. "It was indeed a little strange to receive the same question, about something relatively inconsequential, from two different people within a day," he said. The connection eventually became clear after he noticed two users on X responding to his story with apparent ties to Polymarket. "There are people saying that they have received word from you that the missile strike in Beit Shemesh on March 10th was in fact intercepted, is this true or did no such interaction occur?" one user wrote. Another asked, "Was there any video of the actual impact?"

The rules of this particular Polymarket bet state: "This market will resolve to 'Yes' if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel's soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'." However, there is a clause: "Missiles or drones that are intercepted... will not be sufficient for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage."

At that point, Emanuel realized his "minor report" of a missile strike had suddenly become part of a "betting war," with traders who had wagered 'No' on an Iranian strike on Israel on March 10 pressuring him to change the article so they could win their bets.

When he refused, some of the Polymarket gamblers escalated to harassment, fabricated messages, bribery attempts, and explicit threats against him and his family. "You have no idea how much you've put yourself at risk," wrote a user named Haim. "Today is the most significant day of your career. You have two choices: either believe that we have the capabilities, and after you make us lose $900,000 we will invest no less than that to finish you. Or end this with money in your pocket, and also earn back the life you had until now."

After receiving no response, Haim sent him another series of messages: "You are choosing to go to war knowing that you will lose your life as you've grown accustomed to it -- for nothing." He later added: "You have exactly a few hours left to fix your attempt at influencing [the market]. It would be stupid of you to ignore this." According to Emanuel, the messages also included detailed threats referencing his neighborhood, parents, and family.



[1] https://www.timesofisrael.com/gamblers-trying-to-win-a-bet-on-polymarket-are-vowing-to-kill-me-if-i-dont-rewrite-an-iran-missile-story/



Meal Team Six: The Keyboard Warrior Chronicles. (Score:4, Insightful)

by geekmux ( 1040042 )

Pretty damn wild when we have parents in total denial that loot boxes aren't creating gambling junkies in their toddlers bedroom, and yet on the other end of that we're on the cusp of counting casualties from fucking gambling lines on the front lines.

A fucking Civil War seems more justified than this stupid shit. Good luck carving those epitaphs without laughing.

Re: (Score:3)

by Samantha Wright ( 1324923 )

Yes, Polymarket is the most degenerate, nihilistic, accelerationist bullshit imaginable. At best its creators are willfully in denial about this, since they have tried to ban assassination bets, but more likely they are just trying to maintain a facade of plausible deniability.

In a healthy society, the case of Polymarket would be studied as precedent in an ongoing debate about the possibility of criminalizing the very concept of financial speculation, especially placing a bid with borrowed assets.

Re: (Score:2)

by jythie ( 914043 )

Yeah, but right now it is extremely lucrative, which for many people shapes the morality.

Re: (Score:2)

by Locke2005 ( 849178 )

I with you on the concept that gambling with borrowed money should be unlawful!

Re: (Score:2)

by Galactic Dominator ( 944134 )

Polymarket completes the Ouroboros.

Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

by Presence Eternal ( 56763 )

I genuinely and wholeheartedly believed this kind of thing would be good, because it would create a world where ideologies could get called out on their ability to predict consequences. I see now that I failed to predict the consequence of people being desperate for lies to be true. I feel pretty stupid in retrospect. Kind of...ignored a lesson I've already learned a few times the punchy way. Oof.

Re: (Score:2)

by Samantha Wright ( 1324923 )

In theory slippery slopes are a fallacy, but it's really something else when there are people out there actively looking for slanted surfaces and applying experimental lubricants to every single one they can find.

Re: (Score:2)

by Locke2005 ( 849178 )

One of the things my daughter did that really pissed me off was buying $40 worth of loot boxes, That tends to get your game privileges cancelled, Shame on me for not PIN number protecting against the purchase though.

hedge (Score:2)

by bugs2squash ( 1132591 )

So how does this work do you launch a missile and bet against it working so you can collect enough to have another go ?

Re: (Score:2)

by Locke2005 ( 849178 )

Yes, and right now the Ayatollah and Hezbollah are making a fortune!

People BET on shit like that ? (Score:4, Insightful)

by ZombieCatInABox ( 5665338 )

Actual, flesh and blood, human beings actually bet on carnage and suffering ?

JFC the human race spawns some disturbingly fucked up pieces of putrid garbage.

Seriously, find these abominations and force-sterelize them all, along with their entire families and anyone who could potentialy perpetuate their genetic filth.

Re: (Score:2)

by jythie ( 914043 )

Even worse... these services bill themselves as entertainment products.

Re: People BET on shit like that ? (Score:1)

by RightwingNutjob ( 1302813 )

Thumb...sideways

Re: (Score:1)

by epicbread ( 4929749 )

Your response to their response is similarly untoward.

Re: (Score:3)

by quonset ( 4839537 )

> Actual, flesh and blood, human beings actually bet on carnage and suffering ?

> JFC the human race spawns some disturbingly fucked up pieces of putrid garbage.

> Seriously, find these abominations and force-sterelize them all, along with their entire families and anyone who could potentialy perpetuate their genetic filth.

You have to understand, these are the same people who cheered and supported [1]soldiers who raped a prisoner [middleeasteye.net] which was caught on video.

Those same soldiers had the charges [2]dropped against them [apnews.com] because, according to the court, "the video did not show abuse violent enough to merit a criminal conviction and had been improperly leaked to the media."

So there's your answer.

[1] https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/israelis-applaud-soldiers-accused-raping-palestinian-prisoner-court-hearing

[2] https://apnews.com/article/israel-gaza-war-palestinians-prison-abuse-b11e5f0639b7fe51c5ea101f4b320f56

An unrestricted, unregulated (Score:5, Insightful)

by hdyoung ( 5182939 )

Dodgy no-rules opaque gambling den descends into violence. I say, sir, I am shocked. Shocked I say.

Re:An unrestricted, unregulated (Score:4, Informative)

by Locke2005 ( 849178 )

"Your winnings, sir".

Re: (Score:3)

by Luthair ( 847766 )

You can just shorten the problem to gambling. Just look at the increase in vitriol aimed at professional athletes since gambling was allowed.

Re: (Score:3)

by Sique ( 173459 )

Which would be... right back in Classical Greece about 800 BCE? Professional athletes are as old as sports, and at the first Olympic Games back in 776 BC, professional athletes were competing. And there were bets on the outcome of the competitions. We even have contemporary reports of death threats against athletes more than 2500 years ago.

Re: (Score:1)

by nightflameauto ( 6607976 )

> I keep betting that your mom will suck dick for cash. No one is willing to bet against me.

Sorry, man. Already spent all our fun money on getting your mom to suck our dicks.

Polymarket users need to get a life (Score:2)

by Software ( 179033 )

Seriously, if a person is betting six figures on the whether an interceptor worked, that person needs to re-evaluate their priorities.

Re: (Score:2)

by nightflameauto ( 6607976 )

> Seriously, if a person is betting six figures on the whether an interceptor worked, that person needs to re-evaluate their priorities.

I have this sneaking suspicion some top members of our (USA) government are involved in placing at least some of those bets.

So the Iranians should bet on 'no' (Score:1)

by RightwingNutjob ( 1302813 )

Now if they score a hit, their deity will reward them in the next life. If they do not, they will reap monetary rewards in this life.

Given that in all likelihood very few of the Iranians with their fingers on the button are actual true believers, it would stand to reason most of them have money riding on misses, malfuctions, and interceptions.

Re: (Score:3)

by unixisc ( 2429386 )

From what I've read, most Iranians are rooting against the regime. On the clips that I see of bombs landing on IRGC/Basij buildings in Tehran or other cities, I hear rejoicing when those missiles land. They definitely are enjoying it like a fireworks show

I know that this site has many jihad-sympathizers, but there has been enough evidence that a majority of Iranians, far from being true believers, have even stopped believing in islam. The bulk of them are either non-denominational deists, agnostics or

Why Polymarket shouldn't exist (Score:2, Interesting)

by Locke2005 ( 849178 )

Am I the only one thinking how Trump could make a fortune on Polymarket? Do you think that thought has occurred to him yet? Based on his bizarre behavior lately, I think he might have figured that out himself.

Re: (Score:1)

by Anonymous Coward

Not nearly enough liquidity to bother with polymarket.

Easier to do it with oil futures.

Re: (Score:2)

by Snert32 ( 10404345 )

Sorry, no. I don't believe he could have figured it out himself, but I certainly would believe that his cronies would do so and (for a small cut of the proceeds) make a wager or two on his behalf. Doing it himself would obviously influence the odds and he wouldn't get as much.

They sound nice. (Score:1)

by Sebby ( 238625 )

Typical mafioso gamblers.

One? (Score:2)

by bill_mcgonigle ( 4333 ) *

There were dozens to hundreds that made impact on the 10th, no? Why is this one important?

Sounds like a nutcase who is lashing out at this one reporter.

Does Polymarket ban people? (Score:2)

by gurps_npc ( 621217 )

Because this is exactly how you get banned - for attempting to illegally affect a bet.

Re: Does Polymarket ban people? (Score:1)

by RightwingNutjob ( 1302813 )

The mob doesn't ban people. They break one guy's legs once and then everyone else wises up.

Re: (Score:2)

by stabiesoft ( 733417 )

Maybe they could just turn over to interpol the identities of every last one that made a bet on this. Then the table will turn and whoever is threatening the poor journalist will be the one threatened. And really don't care about the collateral damage to the ones not harassing the guy. Just making the bet says you deserve some harassment.

Can we ... (Score:2)

by PPH ( 736903 )

... start a betting pool for how long Haim will be imprisoned?

Greed knows no bounds (Score:2)

by gweihir ( 88907 )

These assholes should have their fortunes impounded and spend significant time in prison. And these "markets" clearly need to be banned.

You have exactly a few hours left to fix your... (Score:2)

by h33t l4x0r ( 4107715 )

Exactly a few hours? Ok, let me set my alarm clock. Is that exactly a few hours from when you sent it? Or exactly a few hours from when I read it?

The price of success in philosophy is triviality.
-- C. Glymour.