By 2028, Gartner research VP Julia Palmer predicts that VMware will [1]lose 35% of its current workloads as Broadcom's licensing changes and rising costs push customers toward competitors like Nutanix and public clouds. The Register reports:

> On Wednesday at the analyst firm's Symposium event in Australia, Palmer pointed out that the Broadcom business unit recently tweaked its licensing program so that hyperscalers can no longer sell VMware subscriptions to users of their hosted VMware services. Customers must instead buy direct from Broadcom and use license portability entitlements for any VMware infrastructure they host in hyperscale clouds. Palmer said that decision shows VMware does not consider hyperscalers strategic partners, and she thinks the feeling is mutual. Hyperscalers nevertheless welcome customers who use them to run VMware workloads "because they know over time they will convert you to 'proper cloud'."

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> Which is one reason she expects VMware will lose so many workloads: Hyperscalers will use their engagements with VMware customers to extol the virtue of public clouds. Palmer thinks VMware customers should heed that pitch. "We are all addicted to hypervisors, and that needs to change," Palmer said, not least because Broadcom's acquisition of VMware shows how lock-in to a virtualization platform can be costly. But she counseled against planning to move all workloads off VMware, as no rival vendor offers a superior platform and a full migration will take three or more years. Palmer instead advised assessing which applications are ripe for modernization and re-platforming, and shifting those -- a job that can take up to a year.



[1] https://www.theregister.com/2025/09/11/gartner_vmware_migration_advice/