All IT Work To Involve AI By 2030, Says Gartner (theregister.com)
- Reference: 0179091984
- News link: https://it.slashdot.org/story/25/09/08/2031235/all-it-work-to-involve-ai-by-2030-says-gartner
- Source link: https://www.theregister.com/2025/09/08/ai_impact_it_departments/
> All work in IT departments [1]will be done with the help of AI by 2030 , according to analyst firm Gartner, which thinks massive job losses won't result. Speaking during the keynote address of the firm's Symposium event in Australia today, VP analyst Alicia Mullery said 81 percent of work is currently done by humans acting alone without AI assistance. Five years from now Gartner believes 75 percent of IT work will be human activity augmented by AI, with the remainder performed by bots alone.
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> Distinguished VP analyst Daryl Plummer said this shift will mean IT departments gain labor capacity and will need to show they deserve to keep it. "You never want to look like you have too many people," he advised, before suggesting technology leaders consult with peers elsewhere in a business to identify value-adding opportunities IT departments can execute. Plummer said Gartner doesn't foresee an "AI jobs bloodbath" in IT or other industries for at least five years, adding that just one percent of job losses today are attributable to AI. He and Mullery did predict a reduction in entry-level jobs, as AI lets senior staff tackle work they would once have assigned to juniors.
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> The two analysts also forecast that businesses will struggle to implement AI effectively, because the costs of running AI workloads balloon. ERP, Plummer said, has straightforward up-front costs: You pay to license and implement it, then to train people so they can use it. AI needs that same initial investment but few organizations can keep up with AI vendors' pace of innovation. Adopting AI therefore creates a requirement for near-constant exploration of use cases and subsequent retraining. Plummer said orgs that adopt AI should expect to uncover 10 unanticipated ancillary costs, among them the need to acquire new datasets, and the costs of managing multiple models. The need to use one AI model to check the output of others -- a necessary step to verify accuracy -- is another cost to consider. AI's hidden costs mean Gartner believes 65 percent of CIOs aren't breaking even on AI investments.
[1] https://www.theregister.com/2025/09/08/ai_impact_it_departments/
If I wanted the wrong solution, my manager (Score:2)
If the wrong solution was good enough, my manager would be taking care of the work he assigns by asking questions of a voice prompt, and the rest of us would stand around and wait to be fired one by one when the AI soliton today falls on its face, and the C suite demands vengeance. What was that Star trek where the computer calculated the cost of war and informed the civilians to show up to the chamber? A bit like that.
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The episode you are looking for is called [1]A Taste of Armageddon [wikipedia.org].
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Taste_of_Armageddon
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And it may prove to be the most prophetic of all ST:TOS episodes. Unfortunately, the C-suite is currently jacking off to it. "No, don't let that pointy-eared freak control the guard's mind! And pass my cocaine!"
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> If the wrong solution was good enough
If you ask the likes of the Klarna or SalesForce CEOs, the wrong solution is already good enough. The greatest decline in software quality has only just begun. Decades ago we used to think that badly optimized code was the worst that could happen if poorly educated people did the programming, then it was unstable code that became a "usual" outcome, but now we have reached the point where "software that does not quite perform its primary function" has become an expected result from the LLM wielding vibe-code
Might be possible... (Score:5, Interesting)
But broadly speaking it's felt like throughout my entire career Gartner has said various things with all the accuracy of coin flipping. I'm shocked that business people have kept citing them time and time again like some grand Oracle as they keep flubbing the details with little or no particular insight than anyone else.
thinks massive job losses won't result?!?!? (Score:2)
That's how you pay for it numbnuts, by firing people. In just 2 years, they've been able to whack 50% of the entry tech workers (see previous /. article [1]https://it.slashdot.org/story/... [slashdot.org] )
The effort is worth something - to the company, if it was just a break even, it wouldn't happen. Even the increased productivity gets sucked up by ownership / shareholders. That's what's happened since the 1970s with technology and there's zero reason to expect it to change. [2]https://www.epi.org/productivi... [epi.org]
Eve
[1] https://it.slashdot.org/story/25/09/08/0423228/theres-50-fewer-young-employees-at-tech-companies-now-than-two-years-ago
[2] https://www.epi.org/productivity-pay-gap/
Anything that can be automated will be automated (Score:2)
If you find yourself doing repetitive things every day that's AI can almost do, it's time to look for another career.
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> If you find yourself doing repetitive things every day that's AI can almost do, it's time to look for another career.
Most of that stuff has already been automated, without the assistance of AI.
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Yep. It is called "libraries", "frameworks" and sometimes even "code generators".
Excellent (Score:2)
That gives me five years to mostly ignore it while they have five years to make it mostly useful.
This just in: Gartner predictions unreliable (Score:2)
These people like to hallucinate when they think it will get them money.
I mean, it already is to some degree (Score:3)
Oh, they meant "genAI". That's probably going to collapse by the end of the year.
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LLM is genAI
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Yep. Or maybe next year if they can keep the stupid excited a bit longer. But there is no way this crap will be profitable anytime this decade.