News: 0175322621

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'We Don't Know Where the Tipping Point Is': Climate Expert on Potential Collapse of Atlantic Circulation

(Friday October 25, 2024 @11:21AM (msmash) from the grave-concerns dept.)


Scientists from 15 countries warned in an open letter that the potential collapse of the Atlantic Ocean's main circulation system (AMOC) has been "greatly underestimated" and [1]could have devastating global impacts , according to oceanographer Stefan Rahmstorf who spoke to The Guardian. The AMOC system, which moves heat through the northern Atlantic and influences weather patterns across Europe, has shown signs of weakening over the past 60-70 years due to global warming, with indicators including a persistent cold spot in the northern Atlantic and record-low salt levels in seawater.

Rahmstorf, who heads the Earth system analysis department at Germany's Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, estimates a 50% chance of the system reaching a critical tipping point this century, which could trigger severe consequences including regional cooling in northwestern Europe, shifting rainfall patterns, and rising sea levels.



[1] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/23/we-dont-know-where-the-tipping-point-is-climate-expert-on-potential-collapse-of-atlantic-circulation



An accurate headline (Score:4, Informative)

by Geoffrey.landis ( 926948 )

An accurate headline, for a change. In fact, we don't know where the tipping points are.

This is a real problem. Should we worry about worst case scenarios when we don't know when, exactly, they get triggered?

Another thing to note is that we don't really know for sure what the effect of the AMOC on European climate is. This is still debated. (Good article here, though: [1]https://www.science.org/doi/10... [science.org] )

[1] https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aaz4876

Sources [Re:An accurate headline] (Score:3)

by Geoffrey.landis ( 926948 )

> The story is from the guardian.

The article is about the open letter from 44 climatologists... but didn't give a link to the letter. That is annoying. For reference, the link is here: [1]https://www.ucl.ac.uk/geograph... [ucl.ac.uk]

(but, the bulk of the Guardian article is a discussion from Stefan Rahmstorf, from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, not the letter itself.)

> Was there no semi-reputable news source willing to publish this?

A couple of other sources:

[2]https://www.euronews.com/green... [euronews.com]

[3]https://oceanographicmagazine.... [oceanograp...gazine.com]

[1] https://www.ucl.ac.uk/geography/sites/geography/files/amoc_letter_final.pdf

[2] https://www.euronews.com/green/2024/10/24/this-tipping-point-would-be-catastrophic-for-europe-but-scientists-are-unsure-when-well-re

[3] https://oceanographicmagazine.com/news/amoc-atlantic-tipping-point-keeping-climate-stable-greatly-underestimated/

Re:An accurate headline (Score:4, Informative)

by Baron_Yam ( 643147 )

Jesus.

"There's this potentially really, really bad thing that is going to happen, but we aren't 100% certain about the exact timing or effects so let's just forget about it".

That has to be the absolute dumbest thing I've read on the Internet this month. And I periodically read about cryptocurrency on Slashdot.

Re: (Score:3)

by 4wdloop ( 1031398 )

Accurate but perhaps highlighting the wrong point.

Typical human would react to "we do not know" with "so nothing to worry about yet". However, we do know that there will be a tipping point and we may have already crossed it. Or be close to it. Or not, but certainly we still contribute to keep going towards it.

The article though is more about effect of the collapse.

Better title: "Collapse of AMOC will be catastrophic and we do not know when exactly it will happen."

Re: (Score:2)

by should_be_linear ( 779431 )

There’s a saying, 'Fuck around and find out,' which pretty much sums up humanity’s response to warnings like this.

Re: (Score:2)

by Rinnon ( 1474161 )

Lambasting poor objectivity from scientists in the form of pure conjecture. *chefs kiss*

Re: (Score:1)

by Black Parrot ( 19622 )

Yeah, we can't know anything for certain, so let's just stop doing science and stop trying to take care of ourselves.

It doesn't matter (Score:5, Insightful)

by Baron_Yam ( 643147 )

It is exceedingly clear that humanity is completely incapable of cooperating to stop making things worse, never mind attempt to undo the damage done in the last century.

We are taking steps, but only where it makes economic sense in the short term. There is no will to say, "we're all going to suffer together to get this done so things aren't much, much worse in 50-100 years".

We will find the tipping point when it is crossed. We will deal with consequences when they happen, and not one minute sooner, so long as there is an immediate economic benefit to doing so.

I'm fine - I'm going to be dead before real problems happen. Right now it's "more powerful and more frequent storms, a bit more heat on average, and the glaciers are disappearing". That's not enough to motivate enough people to drive change. When people are starving because their local agriculture isn't productive enough any longer, when they're migrating in mass to avoid newly inhospitable regions and triggering wars as they cross borders... people will starve and kill each other.

The billionaires will be FINE. And even my kids will be OK, because like many (if not most) people enjoying the luxury of posting on an Internet forum, I'm fucking rich compared to the average human being on this planet. And it's people with money who determine policy while the people without it will suffer.

It's wrong, and there's fuck all a single person can do about it because it's human nature. I vote where it seems like it might help. I try to reduce my personal environmental impact where I can without ending up living in a tent in the woods. And I expect things to continue to show signs of getting worse throughout the rest of my life regardless.

3 mile island and chernobyl hurt clean nuke power! (Score:2)

by Joe_Dragon ( 2206452 )

3 mile island and chernobyl hurt clean nuke power!

Re: (Score:2)

by Rinnon ( 1474161 )

Unfortunately, you nailed it. There's only so much one person, or even the entire group of environmental activists, can do if we aren't going to mandate dramatic change from the top of our society, and enforce those changes with the powers they have at their disposal. Personally I would vote in favour of massive austerity in order to meet some of our targets, but that's not even given as an option at the ballot box; that's how far we are from it happening.

I'm resigned to it at this point. It's a shame when

Fossilista response (Score:1)

by msobel ( 661289 )

Consider the opportunities for skiing in the Cotswolds. Cotswolds are definitely hilly. They are characterized by their rolling hills, picturesque villages, and stunning countryside. This hilly terrain is a major part of their charm and contributes to the region's unique beauty. And with the perfectly natural collapse of the Gulf Stream, there will be plenty of snow.

Old musicians never die, they just decompose.