Despite Predictions of Collapse for Ocean Current, Researchers Find a Key Component is 'Remarkably Stable' (msn.com)
- Reference: 0175147815
- News link: https://news.slashdot.org/story/24/09/28/0455257/despite-predictions-of-collapse-for-ocean-current-researchers-find-a-key-component-is-remarkably-stable
- Source link: https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/study-a-key-ocean-current-is-holding-strong-despite-a-predicted-slowdown/ar-AA1qWWhp
"But scientists [4]disagree on whether the the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is already slowing, and questions remain as to whether a variety of proxy measurements actually indicate a slowdown" — including a new analysis arguing that the current " [5]has remained remarkably stable ."
> One way to detect AMOC weakening is to monitor the strength of its components such as the Florida Current, which flows swiftly from the Gulf of Mexico into the North Atlantic. The current is a "major contributor" to the AMOC, the researchers write, and a slowdown of the current might indicate a slowdown of the AMOC. Scientists have been tracking its strength since the 1980s using a submarine cable that measures the volume of water it transports.
>
> In the current study, researchers reconsider the data, correcting for a gradual shift in Earth's magnetic field that they say affected the cable measurements. Previous assessments of the uncorrected data showed a slight slowing in the Florida Current. But when they corrected for the shift in Earth's magnetic field, the researchers write, they found that the current "has remained remarkably stable" and not declined significantly over the past 40 years.
The researchers' announcement acknowledges that "It is possible that the AMOC is changing without a corresponding change in the Florida Current..."
[1] https://news.slashdot.org/story/23/07/25/184200/gulf-stream-could-collapse-as-early-as-2025-study-suggests
[2] https://news.slashdot.org/story/24/02/11/2141215/computer-simulations-of-atlantic-ocean-currents-finds-collapse-could-happen-in-our-lifetime
[3] https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/study-a-key-ocean-current-is-holding-strong-despite-a-predicted-slowdown/ar-AA1qWWhp
[4] https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-022-00896-4
[5] https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/reassessing-the-stability-of-the-florida-current-new-insights-from-40-years-of-observations/
Models only include the "knowns" (Score:2)
So they model the biases of the modeler.
Re: (Score:2)
Climate science appears to still be struggling with the unknown unknowns. It's still science and needs to be done. But it's a long way from being useful for making quantitative decisions.
No shit sherlock (Score:2)
Same doomer narrative was going on about Gulf Stream stopping by 2020 back in 2000s. I remember being taught in school how we would likely have Arctic conditions everywhere but in Southern Finland, while much of US East Coast would become tropical.
Doomsday kept getting pushed back as people doing guesswork... I'm sorry "modelling" were telling us that they just had wrong weights, the model was bad, the error rate was wrong and if we increase it to the point where model is pointless it sorta kinda fits with
Nice work. (Score:2)
In general, since scaring people sells, the media are enthusiastic about promoting doomsday scenarios. Nice to see the media noticing some work that's challenging a doomsday scenario.
Reanalyzing data for unsuspected errors (Score:2)
I have a friend who is an atmospheric chemist. She was proud of a grant she received from NASA for review of old data. The story was quite interesting. It has been about 20 years since I heard it, but the details as I recall were this:
She flew out of Wallops Island. Each scientific station, such as atmospheric chemistry, had an assigned position in their research aircraft. One day, unusually big equipment for some other experiment required shifting stations, and she ended up on the right side of the pl
Summary of the summary (Score:2)
We studied a contributing eddie in the larger current. The eddie hasn't changed therefore the studies of the larger current must be wrong and it hasn't changed either.
The real result should be 'further study of the complete phenomenon is required'.
Phew! (Score:2)
This is good news. If say, the Gulf stream were to collapse, our friends in Great Britain would be in for a rough time. That current keeps them a lot warmer than their latitude would suggest.
Re: (Score:1)
They would be fine. It's nothing they haven't [1]been through before. [wikipedia.org]
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/River_Thames_frost_fairs