SpaceX rocket set for unintentional Moon landing – well, a piece of it anyway
- Reference: 1777634110
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2026/05/01/spacex_debris_landing/
- Source link:
The upper stage of the Falcon 9 rocket used to launch the Blue Ghost and Hakuto-R lunar lander is set to have its own close encounter with the Moon after loitering in orbit for more than a year, claims astronomer Bill Gray of Project Pluto, who [1]posted a commentary on the object. It is his software that projected the August 5 impact.
The Falcon 9 was [2]launched on January 15, 2025, on a mission to send a pair of landers to the Moon. One, Firefly Aerospace's Blue Ghost, [3]made a successful landing . The other, ispace's Hakuto-R, [4]did not fare so well .
[5]
However, while the first stage of the Falcon 9 landed successfully, the second stage and payload canister remained in space. The latter reentered the atmosphere and was destroyed. The former was in too high an orbit and carried on circling the Earth. Too high for the US military's tracking service to get an accurate fix, but detectable by amateur astronomers and asteroid surveys.
[6]
[7]
Gray notes [8]in his post that: "It doesn't present any danger to anyone, though it does highlight a certain carelessness about how leftover space hardware (space junk) is disposed of."
The object, dubbed 2025-10D is - according to Gray - in an "orbit around the Earth, taking about 26 days to go around us. The orbit is lopsided; at its closest (perigee), the object is about 220,000 kilometers (137,000 miles) away. At its farthest, it gets out to 510,000 km (310,000 miles). For comparison, the moon is about 385,000 km (240,000 miles) away.
[9]
"The orbit of the Moon and of this object, roughly speaking, intersect. Usually, one goes through the intersection point while the other is someplace else. But on August 5, they'll reach that point at the same time."
[10]SpaceX dusts off Falcon Heavy for first flight in 18 months
[11]Amazon tells FCC to bin SpaceX's million-satellite datacenter dream
[12]SpaceX hits back at Amazon in orbital datacenter dispute
[13]SpaceX wants to fill Earth orbit with a million datacenter satellites
As for its speed when it hits the lunar surface, Gray said:
2.43 kilometers a second, or 1.51 miles a second, or 5,400 miles an hour, or 8,700 kilometers an hour.
There is, of course, no air and no sound on the Moon, so a "Mach number" doesn't really make sense. But if there were air, the speed would be about Mach 7, seven times the speed of sound.
There is very little risk from the impact – there are no humans on or around the Moon, and it is highly unlikely debris from the upper stage will strike probes in the vicinity. Will it be visible? "Probably not."
It does, however, highlight concerns about space junk in general, as well as what to do with rocket bodies on lunar trajectories. Gray wrote, "If we have humans on the Moon in the coming years, we might start to worry more about this sort of thing. But it won't be a problem on August 5."
So, SpaceX might be landing on the Moon in August. Just not quite in the manner NASA is expecting. ®
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[1] https://www.projectpluto.com/25010d.htm
[2] https://www.theregister.com/2025/01/15/spacex_sends_landers_to_moon/
[3] https://www.theregister.com/2025/03/03/blue_ghost_private_moon_success/
[4] https://www.theregister.com/2025/06/05/ispace_moon_landing/
[5] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2afTOKFL8mRhzNef3MtA6XAAAAdQ&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[6] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44afTOKFL8mRhzNef3MtA6XAAAAdQ&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[7] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33afTOKFL8mRhzNef3MtA6XAAAAdQ&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[8] https://www.projectpluto.com/25010d.htm
[9] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44afTOKFL8mRhzNef3MtA6XAAAAdQ&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[10] https://www.theregister.com/2026/04/27/spacex_readies_the_first_falcon/
[11] https://www.theregister.com/2026/03/09/amazon_petitions_to_block_spacexs/
[12] https://www.theregister.com/2026/03/23/spacex_amazon_orbital_datacenters/
[13] https://www.theregister.com/2026/02/05/spacex_1m_satellite_datacenter/
[14] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
Here we go again...
"there are no humans on or around the Moon, ".
Once again us earthlings only worry when it's us at risk.without the slightest concern for those that are actually affected.
I've heard the Clangers are frantically negotiating with the Selenites for asylum, as they fear their house are to shallow to survive a direct impact.
"traveling at several times the speed of sound."
Hmmm.
I was about to come here and correct him. I'm surprised an astronomer doesn't realise there is an interplanetary medium and sound waves propagate through it. Most notably, the solar wind is supersonic. Mach numbers are harder to come by.
I guess you never got past the first paragraph before commenting?
There is, of course, no air and no sound on the Moon, so a "Mach number" doesn't really make sense. But if there were air, the speed would be about Mach 7, seven times the speed of sound
Well - if we're really gong to get pedantic.... MACH numbers are dependant on the density of the medium.
IE, the "speed of sound" is different at high atlitude than it is at low altitude, due to the density of the gaseous soup we call "atmosphere".
So - even if the mph or kph figure can be stated directly, the MACH number hasn't been stated "well" (I was going to use accurately, but it's an approximation anyway), because they haven't given the correlatory altitude*.
Given the Moon's lower gravitational pull, IF it had an atmosphere, the density of said atmosphere at any given altitude would not the same as that on Earth....
" MACH numbers are dependant on the density of the medium. "
An excellent point. So what is the speed of sound through lunar rock? If it's anything like the speed of sound through terrestrial rock, the speed of impact might be lower than the speed of the acoustic vibrations it will cause to travel through the moon itself, making the speed of impact subsonic in that context.
(I"m waiting for the Friday afternoon shift to end - can you tell?)
There is, of course, a very sparse layer of gases surrounding the Moon and not a vacuum although it is often considered such.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosphere_of_the_Moon
Small correction (that the 2nd stage didn't have)
> the first paragraph
To be properly pedantic, one would have said "the seventh paragraph"
Re: Small correction (that the 2nd stage didn't have)
Assuming you're not numbering from zero, of course...
Re: Small correction (that the 2nd stage didn't have)
The headline and subhead count as the 0th paragraph. (see icon -- toss-up between that and troll)
Instrumentation
Lets hope lots of orbiting probes get a good view. Knowing exactly when and where it's going to hit this far in advance should hopefully give them a chance to get a good view. Events like this are very rare, where we know all about the impactor and the impact before it happens. It may be an accident, but there's lots of science we can do with it.
Lessons
We have filled our own planet with junk in orbit. Now we are doing it again! We really should lean to tidy up after ourselves!
What about the moon nazi's???
First the Americans bomb the Iranians and now they're going to drop a bomb on the moon nazi's??
"But on August 5, they'll reach that point at the same time."
A nice way of saying that two objects are destined to be coincident in space and time to the extreme prejudice to one.
2026-11-03 might shape up in this fashion when multiple trajectories of insanity are fated to converge.
Possibly more kiss·my·arse… than kismet.