Phone users know when to hold ’em, delay upgrades amid inflation
- Reference: 1777575247
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2026/04/30/phone_buyers_opt_to_wait/
- Source link:
Phone makers were already feeling the effects of the [1]AI-driven memory shortage , which has pushed up the cost of the DRAM and NAND flash chips inside every device, making handsets more expensive to build.
Now, inflation linked to events like the Iran war is eating away at the disposable income of buyers around the world, meaning more of them will decide that this isn't the time for a new model, and keep their current handset longer.
[2]
Analyst firm Omdia says that, so far this year, the market has confounded expectations, actually growing by a single percentage point in shipments compared to the first quarter last year, to 298.5 million units.
[3]
[4]
But that was almost certainly due to front-loading, as the vendors accelerated selling their phones into the channel and distribution network ahead of expected memory and component cost increases.
As the macroeconomic headwinds continue to put the squeeze on demand from buyers, a widening gap is forming between channel sell-in and underlying sell-out, Omdia warns. This imbalance could lead to a more pronounced correction in the current second quarter and later in 2026.
[5]
What this means is that the sales channels are full of products, but buyers are going to be fewer and choosier. And with the channels overstuffed, new shipments will likely nosedive in the coming months.
And when it comes to replacement cycles, these have already extended considerably worldwide over the last few years, according to Omdia principal analyst Runar Bjørhovde.
"Currently, there are 5.63 billion active smartphones worldwide - a number that will continue to grow over the next years," he told The Register .
[6]
"Actual new smartphones in 2025 were 1.25 billion. This reflects an average lifetime of 4.2 years before a device is replaced. In 2020, this number was only 3.6 - and we expect it to move towards 4.7 before the end of the decade," he explained.
So replacement cycles have already lengthened since the heady days when it was typical for some folk to get a new device every year or two, possibly because the price tag for premium devices is now well north of $1,000 and there is increasingly little difference between any of them.
"We particularly expect more price elastic consumers to delay their purchases a bit further as device pricing is pushed up due to the memory situation," Bjørhovde added.
Omdia saw a peak in 2024 and 2025 for a refresh of devices bought in 2021 and 2022.
[7]Sorry, Amazon, you couldn't pick a worse time to bring a phone to market: IDC analyst
[8]Old-school rotary phone dials into online meetings, hangs up when you slam it down
[9]Phone-to-satellite use goes into orbit, growing 25% in 8 months
[10]Everyone needs an AI phone. No, don't hang up, it's true
"The next one will likely come through once the worst of the memory crunch starts to settle towards the end of the decade," Bjørhovde said.
One aspect of the current memory situation is that budget entry-level devices will be very difficult, if not impossible, for vendors to maintain, as The Register has [11]reported previously .
"Selling a device for less than $200 when memory a year ago made up 15 percent of the bill of materials, but has now increased by three to five times, is impossible even if you start to reduce quite a lot of other specs," Bjørhovde explained.
There could be a further knock-on effect as well, as market watchers at IDC previously said that elongated refresh cycles for brand new phones mean [12]fewer second-hand devices will become available for those wanting a budget option. ®
Get our [13]Tech Resources
[1] https://www.theregister.com/2026/02/27/memory_drought_pcs_phones_suck/
[2] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/personaltech&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2afPQ_oaR0iJgOy4_7SDI_QAAAEI&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[3] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/personaltech&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44afPQ_oaR0iJgOy4_7SDI_QAAAEI&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[4] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/personaltech&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33afPQ_oaR0iJgOy4_7SDI_QAAAEI&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[5] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/personaltech&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44afPQ_oaR0iJgOy4_7SDI_QAAAEI&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[6] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/personaltech&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33afPQ_oaR0iJgOy4_7SDI_QAAAEI&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[7] https://www.theregister.com/2026/03/20/amazon_phone_worst_possible_time/
[8] https://www.theregister.com/2025/11/24/rotary_phone_online_meetings/
[9] https://www.theregister.com/2026/04/21/phone_to_satellite_services_jump_25_percent/
[10] https://www.theregister.com/2025/09/09/gartner_ai_phone/
[11] https://www.theregister.com/2026/01/15/memory_crisis_smartphones/
[12] https://www.theregister.com/2024/01/23/second_hand_device_market/
[13] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
What?
You mean that Ma and Pa aren't interested anymore in buying little Johnny or Janey a shiny new iThing for $/€/£1500+? That they'd rather buy food, or gas up the auto? Shirley, etc.
I think that budgetary constraints are compounding a situation that was already in play. In the early, heady days of mobiles new phones had snazzy new features that people really wanted and were willing to splash out on well before they needed to. Today new phones have incremental improvements which, no matter how much they are bigged up at the annual press shindigs, don't nudge the dial far enough to make the difference they used to. I think Apple in particular are suffering from (their) AI proving not to be the shelf emptier that they hoped it would.
I'm on old git who sits in the unfashionable end of the distribution of phone buyers so I'll be hanging on to my iPhone 13 Mini as long as it gets security updates because it does everything I need pretty well and can't run AI but mainly because it's small enough to fit in my jacket pocket.
Ditto. Wondering vaguely what could replace the trusty iPhone 13 Mini at some point in the future. Maybe just wait for the direct brain implant.
"I'm on old git who sits in the unfashionable end of the distribution of phone buyers so I'll be hanging on to my iPhone 13 Mini"
From my unfashionable end of the distribution your iPhone whatever puts you way out of sight down the other end.
And, some of us old codgers don't want - or need - an "all in one".
I still prefer to use my canon DSLR for photography, my card for purchases and my fingers to control my coffee machine.
Let alone not needing to use a phone more than a few times a week for actual calls.
Having said that I have no desire to go back to a wired home phone.
"Having said that I have no desire to go back to a wired home phone."
I'll stick with mine. I don't want to have to wait for the wind to be in the right direction or some mysterious phase of the moon that's necessary to be able to make and receive phone calls, especially without them dropping out.
Smartphones have become a mature product ecosystem
Even without inflationary pressures, smartphone upgrades have been offering declining marginal improvements for years. What we see now is a combination of gimmicks and specs for the tech bloggers. The typical user has largely quit caring. They're fast, batteries are good, space+cloud is generally enough, cameras are great, Internet browsing is faster than the desktops people remember from 10 years ago, etc.
Other mobile/wearable formats might be ripe for innovation, but what does the modern smartphone even hypothetically lack? It's a grasp to even say "AI ready silicon" when many users either don't want those features or can access them over the network. Will it be like the old days when people routinely buy that new desktop to meet software system requirements? Speaking of which: seen system requirements in the last 10 years? For nearly everything not niche, it's now down to just OS support and newer than a certain date. If "AI ready silicon" becomes practiically commoditized like the rest of phone hardware before the demand is there, it won't accelerate replacement.
Why do people get new smartphones now? Because the old one broke.
Users have become fine with the replacement cycle essentially being the life of the device. The usual corporate planned obsolescence doesn't even work well here, as a phone which doesn't last "long enough" risks alienating a user from an ecosystem heavy on service revenue.
But some tech types see things differently and can't accept a mature product is fine being mature unless there's an important need for disruption.
"Why do people get new smartphones now? Because the old one broke."
That is it in a nice little nutshell.
And if you don't physically break the phone, one of the supply-chain vendors will brick it for you with an update soon.
Witness the huge number of Samsung Galaxy S series suddenly developing screen issues because an update caused the phone to overheat. Clever.
Another iphone 13 user here. Mine is now on a "sim only" contract costing me a massive £11 per month.
It does everything that I need and there's nothing that a new phone does for me that mine does not already do.
Unless it breaks, or the battery dies I'll keep it and I may even treat it to a new case.
Basically, phones are a mature technology and there is no killer app or function to differentiate a new model from the previous model. I note that the manufacturers are pushing foldable phones as the next big thing, but again, I can't see this as a killer feature.
Another iPhone 13 user here, must have been a popular year as quite a few of us on El Reg still rocking one.
Mine actually has better battery health than my partners 15 Plus which is two years younger.
The biggest fight is keeping the latest OS "up"grades from shitting on the things.
I'm daily driving a 2018 Oneplus 6. Other than the battery now not holding as much charge there is nothing wrong with the hardware, and the software is kept up to date thanks to Lineage OS.
I don't really feel the need to replace the phone while its working for just some incremental improvements in CPU, RAM and cameras.
Market
I am in the market for a new phone, but releases so far have been shite.