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  ARM Give a man a fire and he's warm for a day, but set fire to him and he's warm for the rest of his life (Terry Pratchett, Jingo)

Only 28% of AI infrastructure projects fully pay off, survey finds

(2026/04/07)


Tech leaders hoping AI might help save money and improve efficiency in IT infrastructure should know that only 28 percent of use cases fully succeed and offer return on investment (ROI).

According to new figures from Gartner, one in five AI projects in IT infrastructure and operations (I&O) fail outright.

Its survey of 782 I&O managers conducted in November and December last year found that 57 percent have suffered at least one failure in applying AI to their area.

[1]

Melanie Freeze, research director at Gartner, said many AI initiatives flopped because of unrealistic expectations.

[2]

[3]

"They assumed AI would immediately automate complex tasks, cut costs, or fix long‑standing operational issues," she said. "When expectations are not realistically set and the results don't appear quickly, confidence drops and projects stall."

"The 20 percent failure rate is largely driven by AI initiatives that are either overly ambitious or poorly scoped. AI that doesn't fit into the organization's operations simply can't deliver ROI."

[4]

I&O leaders most frequently observe AI failures in auto-remediation, self-healing infrastructure, and agent-led management of workflows within and between systems, Gartner found.

Among I&O leaders who faced setbacks, 38 percent said persistent skill gaps continue to hamper AI success. The same proportion cited poor data quality or limited data availability as a direct cause of AI project failure.

The research found tech managers were more successful where the technology was more mature, such as applying GenAI to IT service management (ITSM) and cloud operations, with 53 percent of I&O leaders reporting success in those areas.

[5]If an AI agent screws up while running your business, there's nobody to sue

[6]Leaked memo suggests Red Hat's chugging the AI Kool-Aid

[7]PwC will say goodbye to staff who aren't convinced about AI

[8]AI finally delivers those elusive productivity gains... for cybercriminals

However, there were challenges in getting funding for using AI in tech infrastructure "Many AI initiatives are still funded by individual business units, Freeze said. "However, as AI infrastructure spending continues to rise, CEOs and CFOs need to play a more active role in setting funding criteria and approving major investments."

The findings come against a backdrop of companies struggling to justify AI spending. In February, a survey of almost 6,000 corporate execs across the US, UK, Germany, and Australia found that [9]more than 80 percent detect no discernible impact from AI on either employment or productivity even though 69 percent of businesses currently use some form of AI.

[10]

Another study from Harris Poll, commissioned by Dataiku, found tech leaders would come under pressure to show returns on AI investment in 2026: 98 percent said there was [11]increasing pressure from the board to demonstrate ROI , while 71 percent of the CIOs surveyed believed their AI budget would likely face cuts or a freeze if targets were not met by the end of the first half of the year. ®

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[5] https://www.theregister.com/2026/04/05/ai_agents_liability/

[6] https://www.theregister.com/2026/03/31/red_hat_ai_dev/

[7] https://www.theregister.com/2026/03/19/pwc_ai/

[8] https://www.theregister.com/2026/03/16/interpol_ai_fraud/

[9] https://www.theregister.com/2026/02/18/ai_productivity_survey/

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[11] https://www.theregister.com/2026/02/17/no_roi_no_ai/

[12] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/



cyberdemon

And that's BEFORE slop-mongers have hiked their prices to break-even or above.

28%?

Yet Another Anonymous coward

So that's way higher than non-AI IT infrastructure projects paying off

Re: 28%?

Clausewitz4.1

” So that's way higher than non-AI IT infrastructure projects paying off”

Working in telecom and ISP for quite a few decades, allow me to disagree. The “cloud” indeed took a chunk of customers, but then a lot realized it was cheaper to run things locally, and started to come back.

Re: 28%?

Yet Another Anonymous coward

Unencumbered by vibe coding, a system given the herculean task of paying 1M federal workers in a single federal government in a single country is now nearly $6Bn over budget and so far behind schedule that it is now paying the descendent of people it was supposed to pay.

JohnSheeran

Execs will just tout this like it's the "1 in a million" line from Dumb and Dumber. "So you're saying there's still a chance?"

DJV

Yeah, but (as a great man once said) magicians have calculated that million-to-one chances crop up nine times out of ten.

UCAP

Have an upvoter for the PTerry reference.

Helcat

However, a 1 in 999,999 or 1 in 1,000,001 are guaranteed to fail.

What was the odds of Sgt Colon hitting the Dragon in the vulnerables while standing on one leg singing the Ank-Morpork anthem. With one eye shut as I recall... (and now need to go read the book again!)

Compared with what?

Pete 2

> only 28 percent of use cases fully succeed and offer return on investment (ROI)

On its own, that tells us nothing useful. For example, is that better or worse than non-AI use cases?

I am not sure I've seen any IT project that could claim to have "fully succeeded". Unless you use the [1]barn door method of determining success

[1] https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/origin-of-the-texas-sharpshooter/

Re: Compared with what?

Clausewitz4.1

” For example, is that better or worse than non-AI use cases?”

Compared to “normal” datacenters running baremetal servers, BGP, MPLS, VPS, CDN, etc… I am used to see a 100% success rate every time a company opened a new datacenter.

... that the notions of "hardware", and "software" should be extended by
the notion of LIVEWARE - being that which produces software for use on
hardware. This produces an obvious extension to the concept of MONITORS.
A liveware monitor is a person dedicated to the task of ensuring that the
liveware does not interfere with the real-time processes, invoking the
REAL-TIME EXECUTIONER to delete liveware that adversely affects ...
-- Linden and Wihelminalaan