Involving trepanning tools like the ancient Egyptians used to use and various AI CEO orifices but that would get me on a watch list.

for mentioning 'Trepanning'. Ironically, I was using one earlier today to make a hole in a new rainwater collection tank.

Yep, I'm pretty sure there'd be plenty of people who'd want to line up to watch you doing the deed...

Mines the one with the hand drill in the pocket and the bloody napkin in the other. I'll see myself out.

The 2026 smartphones, as far as I can see, won't be better, just more expensive. And since the Battery of my Xiaomi Mi 9 (the model with Qi) is reaching "about a day standby" instead of five to seven days I switched to still available Xiaomi 15 (normal, the pro/ultra are not worth the extra money).

The "new" Samsungs are showing the trend: Not much better inside, but new price tag for the same speed / RAM / Storage of the previous model. Similar for Pixels etc...

End of last year noticed that StarLabs were having a sale, so picked up a laptop with 64GB of DDR5 for around £1700 which should keep me going for the next decade.

" (normal, the pro/ultra are not worth the extra money) "

They can often be pretty aggressively marked down.

I just got myself a Redmi Note 15 Pro Plus (daft name). On my contract it was €99 for a 24 month renewal (and note, the price didn't change if I didn't renew). Orange gave me an immediate €20 reduction, and by taking photos of the paperwork, Xiaomi dropped €50 into my bank account. So in all I got the mobile contract I would have had anyway, and a new phone that isn't bad for €29...

Funny that all the AI spending by the giants is making AI, and tech in general, unaffordable for the masses, the very people they need to get addicted to it for it to make economic sense. The hype loop bites its own ass

Surely in 2026 there is an abundance of devices that could be used just a bit longer? You know, like the concept of re-use.

The main thing killing this off is batteries that can't be (easily) replaced. RAM, storage, and processing power of a phone 4-5 years old isn't the issue.

Idly wondering if MS will suddenly realise W11 WILL run on those ‘legacy’ PCs after all. And won’t need AI silicon, and they will remove Copilot from those builds.

Stranger things have happened….

it does run on those legacy PCs. You just need to use Rufus to create your install media, for example.

Yeah, and a squadron of Pigs will fly in formation over Buck House on Charles III official birthday.

Win 11 can and does run on non TPM hardware.

My 2012 HP Laptop has been upgraded in RAM and to SSD. It also now runs Win 11 Enterprise, no piracy involved.

They could consider a special edition - as a new purchase of course, for older H/W. OTOH if the extended support wheeze brings in enough money they wouldn't want to kill that and, of course, it establishes the practice of Windows as and annual subscription, preparing the way for Windows 12.

My last refresh cycle involved a Fairphone 4, and a Framework 13 inch laptop ...... both user maintainable and with replaceable batteries!

I do not believe I will need to replace either for several years.

Forced OS updates prevent are preventing any meaningful long term recycling, especially when the new version of the OS is incompatible with older hardware. Maybe the EU should use their weight to ensure that OS vendors provide at least 15 years of free software fixes from the date of launch of any new operating system.

.. the old "RAM Doubler" utilities from back in the day? I was about to make a joke about them making a comeback, but Google informs me that modern OSs actually use memory compression already. Apparently CPUs got so powerful that it became something worth doing from a performance standpoint, and of course the modern implementation is a long way advanced from those sometimes highly questionable utilities from back in the noughties. You learn something new every day.

something worth doing from a performance standpoint

That's why when I edit a Word document, it is still more like a slideshow. I feel like devices in the 90s were more responsive.

But back then your toolbar icons weren't animated. What kind of primitive office memos could you write without window opening effects

Actually in the OS since Server 2016 (Windows 10 1607). Powershell:

Get-MMAgent

Enable-MMAgent -MemoryCompression

Enable-MMAgent -PageCombining

Though test how much performance each gives or takes.

Is this AI bursting its own bubble?

Meanwhile Zorin or Mint will keep that old laptop running with an up-to-date OS for quite some time longer.

"Meanwhile Zorin or Mint will keep that old laptop running with an up-to-date OS for quite some time longer."

Whilst I agree with you, the problem with this standpoint is it's best suited to those technically minded / average Reg readers.

The moment you give someone an old laptop with an unfamiliar OS installed they might use it... up until the point where they can't do something that they were used to on their old Windows or macOS machine. As soon as that happens their stance becomes yeah I need to go and buy a new (Windows or Mac) laptop.

To put it bluntly: the average person doesn't care about their OS, unless or until it changes to one they're unfamiliar with!

The OS's job is to let you run the apps you want/need/have/are forced to run and get out of the way.

If said apps are not available in said OSm the OS is useless. This is not an statement avout the quality and technical merits of said OS, this is just the way the world works.

If you want/need/have/are forced to use FinalCutPro (say, because the customer requests it), then linux or windows will do you no good.

If you want/need/have/are forced to use excel (say, because there are some macros in the spreadsheet your emplotyer use that do not play nice with libre office) then Linux will do you no good.

I use linux for donated laptops, and is very good that that. But is no panacea. And for some people, free hardware with linux on top is of no use

The OS's function is to run applications. The applications' functions are to allow the user to do stuff. As you, williamyf, know quite well as you've told us of your excellent work in using Linux to make computing available to those who would not be able to afford it, it the being able to do stuff that's important.

I'd also tell you about the time I was a contractor for Huawei (2012-2016). The spreadsheets with timesheets for students, exam results, as well as my expense reports had macros that did not play nice with libreoffice.

Word documents (exams, and technical documentation) and ppts that Huawei provided that i had to edit or translate to spanish had their formating borked by LO.

Can i do a presentation in LO? As a matter of fact, during that time I also teached at the Uni (in venezuela, so salary was junk), and all the paperwork and presentations I did in LO + YED, so, yes, I could "do stuff". But I need office to operate on the documents Huawei insist I use.

My options at the time: refuse to work with Huawei for not being open enough and not put food on my table (salaries in venezuela were crap at the time, so the esporadic work with huawei in mexico, colombia and brazil was what really paid the bills). Try to convince the whole of Huawei-Training division to migrate to LO (good luck with that). Use LO to maintain my FOSS purity and do a lot of extra and unpaid work reformating stuff, and take extra risk by re-implementing the macros, or, you know, use windows/macOS + office.

Well, macOS + Office it was!

I though i gave clear enough examples in the OG comment. But I overestimated a part of the audience.

"To put it bluntly: the average person doesn't care about their OS, unless or until it changes to one they're unfamiliar with!"

OK, let's assume this average person has a W10 laptop that can't be upgraded.

Would the Zorin GUI on their old laptop be less familiar than that on a new W11 laptop?

And which would cost them money?

But virtually all other Linux Distros will do the job just as well. My favourite is the latest release of Fedora.

Zorin and Mint are the best distros for "Windows Refugees".

People who DO NOT want to leave Windows, but circumstances force them to leave Windows.

People who DO NOT want to use Linux, but circumstances force them to use Linux.

Asking those people to use fedora or ubuntu will lead to frustration and lower productivity. I've seen it with my own eyes.

That's why, whenever I prepare a machine for donation, I go with Zorin CE if possible, mint otherwise. Mageia or AntiX for 32bit only machines depending on power.

"But virtually all other Linux Distros will do the job just as well."

Zorin & Mint are supposed to be the most Windows victim friendly so that's what I quoted. Personally I think anything running KDE would be preferable as there are plenty of cosmetics to make it look like W10. The unfamiliarity would be sensible menus, the fact that updates appear to be broken because they install so quickly and the lack of advertising.

The counterpart to this is that presumably when the bubble bursts and it turns out AI datacentres are borderline worthless, there's going to be so much memory flooding the market that we can hope to see devices getting far cheaper.

Hopefully the fabs will turn their capacity over to the kind of RAM that consumers can use, because that's not what they are currently making for the AI companies.

I would guess that the winner eats all and the remains of the AI companies that fall will be scooped up by the behemoths that are still standing.

Another visitor from a nearby galaxy, I see !!!

Welcome to planet Earth ... us earthlings have long 'understood' that prices go up BUT never (or very very slowly) come down.

(Especially, in the UK AKA Brexitland !!!)

As far as 'hope to see devices getting far cheaper' is concerned ... keep praying !!!

I don't understand how the 'AI' Tech Bros are thinking, most people are finding it difficult to get kit at a reasonable price BUT these are the same people who will need the 'NEW' kit to take advantage of the 'wonderful' 'AI' !!!

'AI' impacts us all whether we USE it or NOT !!!

It is a perfect opportunity for someone to create a well written bloatware-free OS that look like Windows and runs well on low-spec kit BECAUSE it does not include all the spy-ware/ad-ware/'AI'/tracking etc extras !!!

I wonder what could be available that is almost there !!!???

It mostly comes down to presentaton and a will to actually 'do it' !!!

:)

" I don't understand how the 'AI' Tech Bros are thinking "

As long as they have their billions in the bank, collateral damage is somebody else's problem.

Except it'll all be in annoying form factors that won't fit into consumer grade kit. Does your motherboard support ECC memory?

(I mean, ok, you're here on the Reg, if anyone's is going to it might well be us but most people aren't going to.)

AI uses HBM memory. That CAN NOT be socketed. So is always soldered. So it goes to the scrap pile.

HBM production lines can be retooled to make GDDR, DDR or LP-DDR but that costs money AND the line is out for weeks or months, so sometimes manufactuers opt to mothball the lines instead.

Datacenters use Full Buffered ECC - DIMMs. Even if the mem controller of your processor support it, you need special mobos to use it.

Also, there are modules that allow you to take your older FB-ECC-DIMMs and use them as CLX memory in more advaced servers that would not take the older modules directly.

Those two factors combined mean that: do not expect a flod of FB-ECC-DIMMs on the used market either.

Datacenters do not use normal DIMMs, SO-DIMMs or CAMM2. So again, nothing of that sort flooding the used market.

Come 2028, the only thing we may expect to have in the second hand market for consumers comming out of the datacenters is the future (but inminent) SO-CAMM2 LP-DDR modules...

> AI uses HBM memory. That CAN NOT be socketed.

Indeed, but why exactly? Is it because of the wide (128-bit) data-bus, or because of impedance changes at connectors causing reflections in high-speed signals? If so, could it work at a lower speed, or with a fancier connector?

Would it be impossible to take some post-bubble surplus HBM chips and solder them onto a pluggable module (not necessarily compatible with DIMM) and invent a new PC form-factor?

probably the impedance thing combined with a low power disipation per pin need (driving a socketed HMB produces lots of heat because of the sheer size of the bus concentrated in such small space

Also, there is no mem controller prepared to use socketed HBM.

Something similar happened with LP-DDR, from it's inception it was designed to be soldered. It took YEARS for some bright sparks at Dell to come up with CAMM that opened the door to socketed LP-DDR.

Never underestimate the ingenuity of someone seeing an abundance of potentially valuable material going cheap.

that those 'hobbled' PC's and Phones will be limited in the amount of AI Slop that they can generate. Yes, they can use the cloud but these are a step in the right direction.

Question for the smart bods around here; Has anyone actually found any desktop software that uses the NPU yet?

We've got a lot of PC's bought in the last year that have NPU's; not bought for AI, but just because they come built in to the standard business Intel Ultra5/Ultra7 spec - I've never once seen a single percentage use of the NPU in task manager; I'm really surprised I've not seen apps using it for a co-processor or hardware acceleration, like GPU Compute units;

Here in 2026, is there any practical uses for the NPU, especially outside of AI Model work?

Well there is the knock-on effect of "cold" silicon making the neighboring silicon stay cooler and minimizing thermal hot spots in their vicinity.

Oh, you meant actually practical use-cases for the intended functions of the NPU? Nevermind...

...because it would seem to me that their behaviour is going to be the thing to watch here. Are they increasing capacity? Clearly demand is up, so production capacity should go up to meet it if this is a long term trend - who doesn't want to sell more product to more customers and make more money after all.

If they're not, and as far as I can tell they aren't, it says something about how long they expect this surge in demand to last. It's going to take quite a few years to get a new chip fab up and off the ground, and cost a huge amount of money. If the memory vendors aren't investing in those I can only assume that they don't think that the demand will still be there by the time those new fabs would come online.

We all know that cutting edge IT kit has quite a short life cycle - especially under the kind of extreme stress you find in big data centres - so it would seem to me that if no one is investing in massive amounts more manufacturing capacity then they don't see a refresh cycle coming in 5 years or so... which is odd, because that's been a given for decades. Kit lasts 5 years. You replace it with newer kit that's more powerful / more efficient / both delete as appropriate.

"It's going to take quite a few years to get a new chip fab up and off the ground, and cost a huge amount of money. If the memory vendors aren't investing in those I can only assume that they don't think that the demand will still be there by the time those new fabs would come online."

TFA states that the "surge may last until late 2027". Which would make your assumption seem pretty spot on. None of this ram is actually being used of course, it's all sat on motherboards waiting on gpus that will never be plugged in.

They are investing, but not massive amounts.

Actualy, some of them are disguising investments decided and/or done before this cruch as reaction to the crunch and comingling (is that a proper verb?) with investment directly related to this bubble.

So yes, the actions of the big three memory manucaturers point to a 2 - 3 year bubble of memory demand.

ISTR shortages and gluts of memory in the past. We'll see this cycle turn just like the last.

But this isn't like any of the others. Every time this has happened before it's been due to a sudden unexpected cut in supply - natural disasters, COVID, that sort of thing. The supply here has stayed pretty constant, it's just been totally redirected away from things people can actually buy into something very few people actually seem to want; namely massive rack servers to go in "AI" data centres.

So if the demand for memory from those data centres is the "new normal" so to speak, vendors should be investing in extra capacity. But they're not. So clearly they don't think that these "AI" bit-barns will still be generating demand in 5 years time. Why invest in the production capacity if you think the people who are currently driving up demand are all going to go bust and not be able to afford your product by the time all that extra capacity comes on line?

Feels like someone has made a very calculated decision on the near-term future of "AI" and decided they want to bet billions in additional business costs on it that may never see a return - which is refreshing, because it seems like everyone else can't throw money at this shit fast enough.

I see this as a good thing.

If nobody is buying the stupidly price increased new Google Pixel/Samsung/Apple shiny phone then Google/Samsung/Apple might rethink their AI demand (as it's them that have demanded these AI models and data centres...).

Maybe this is the start of the AI bubble burst.

Could be worth a bit more than a year ago ?

Poor M$ cab't catch a break. That's a whole load of ready made Mint users.

A whole load of newly minted Mint users?

Capitalism, the most efficient way to ensure that limited resources go to the most effective use - is forcing companies to build expensive ram for an AI that nobody wants and causing shortages for products that people are clamouring to buy.

Are we sure we read the right textbooks ?

The limited resource is money and from time to time the right way is subject to fashion. Tulips or AI, it's all the same.