Tesla's numbers disappoint again ... and the crowd goes wild ... again
- Reference: 1738265115
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2025/01/30/tesla_q4_2024/
- Source link:
The EV maker missed analyst expectations on earnings per share (EPS) and revenue in calendar Q4, the three months to December 31, [1]reporting an eight percent year-on-year decline in revenue and a 71 percent plunge in profit. Income from operations fell to $1.6 billion, down from $2.1 billion in Q4 2023. Net income plummeted from $7.9 billion in Q4 2023, when it was inflated by a one-time tax benefit, to $2.3 billion at the end of 2024.
Automotive revenue also slid eight percent YoY, and even a massive 113 percent surge in energy generation and storage revenue - from $1.4 billion in Q4 2023 to $3.1 billion in Q4 2024 - couldn't offset the losses.
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But, hey - unsupervised, fully autonomous Tesla robotaxis are allegedly coming to Austin, Texas, in June, and will be "in many regions of the US by the end of the year," Musk claimed. Again. Just like he always does, distracting people from the bad news. Even he knows it.
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"Some of these things I've said for quite a long time, and I know people have said, 'Well, Elon, the boy who cried like a wolf [sic] like several times,'" Musk [5]said on a conference call with financial analysts Wednesday. "But I'm telling you, there's a damn wolf this time and you can drive it."
Uh-huh; anything to prop up those stock prices.
[6]
And it seems to have worked, at least temporarily. Tesla shares popped in after-market trading following Tesla's earnings call before falling this morning. Maybe a good night's sleep weakened that reality distortion field a bit?
Musk made several bold claims about Tesla's "full" self-driving (FSD) capabilities in 2024 – entirely computer-controlled driving – touting it as "a generalized AI solution" that operates [7]without maps and will function seamlessly beyond Austin. "This is not some far-off mythical situation," Musk claimed. "It's literally five, six months away."
The reason Tesla is starting slowly, despite allegedly having an FSD system capable of powering autonomous robotaxis "with no one in them," is because of the regulators, of course.
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"We just want to put our toe in the water, make sure everything is OK, then put a few more toes in the water, then put a foot in the water with safety of the general public and those in the car as our top priority," Musk said. "Our constraints, I think it's likely to be just regulatory."
That's going to be painful and difficult but we'll get it done
Regulators aren't actually the only reason FSD may take longer to roll out than Tesla is claiming, though: Most of the automaker's vehicles on the road are still outfitted with Tesla's Hardware 3 (HW3) "full" self-driving computer, which Musk admitted on the call would likely have to be replaced for customers that purchased the Tesla FSD package and are expecting to get access.
Tesla vehicles produced between 2017 and 2023 generally contain HW3, with the latest hardware, known as AI4, began rolling out in 2023, with the exact time depending on the model. Everyone with a HW3 Tesla is going to need their computer replaced, Musk said.
"The honest answer is that we're going to have to upgrade people's Hardware 3 computer for those that have bought full self-driving," Musk said. "That's going to be painful and difficult but we'll get it done."
"Now I'm kind of glad that not that many people bought the FSD package," Musk added, providing a clue into how well Tesla FSD has actually done for the business.
Robotic
Along with his perennial self-driving claims, Musk also used [9]Optimus to deflect from the fact that his car company is shrinking, for some [10]mysterious reason, saying that he expected the humanoid robot to bring in "north of $10 trillion in revenue, like it's really bananas."
"There is no company in the world that is as good in real-world AI as Tesla," Musk claimed. "I don't even know who's in second place."
That amazing AI lead, coupled with Musk's claims that Optimus Version 2 would launch "sometime next year" with a production line designed to make 1,000 bots a month, could push Tesla toward becoming the most valuable company in the world – by a lot, according to Musk.
[11]Tesla recalls 239,382 vehicles over rearview camera problems
[12]US watchdog sticks probe into 2.6M Teslas over so-called Smart Summon crash reports
[13]Tesla's big reveal: Steering-wheel-free Robotaxi will charge wirelessly
[14]Tesla sued over alleged Autopilot fail in yet another fatal accident
"I'm not saying it's an easy path but I see a path of Tesla being the most valuable company in the world by far … worth more than the next top five companies combined," Musk asserted. "That is overwhelmingly due to autonomous vehicles and autonomous humanoid robots."
In other words, two things that Tesla has yet to make good on despite years of promises.
[15]
Elon Musk demonstrating how he'd signal an autonomous Tesla to stop, at Trump's 2025 inauguration ... Click for source
It's also worth putting that "more valuable than the next top five companies combined" claim into perspective. Tesla is [16]currently the eighth largest company in the world by market cap; $1.3 trillion in its case. If it were going to become the most valuable company in the world, it would need to eclipse Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, and Alphabet, which have a combined market cap of nearly $15 trillion.
That's a hefty promise from the world's richest person, who has separately [17]vowed to make the American federal government smaller and allegedly more efficient through cost cutting under Trump.
We note that years of missed deadlines, the self-inflicted [18]slow-motion collapse of Twitter, sowing political discord in the [19]US , [20]UK and EU , and more head-in-hands moments haven't sunk Musk or Tesla yet. Given all that, it's unlikely more wild claims on an earnings call will do much either. ®
Get our [21]Tech Resources
[1] https://digitalassets.tesla.com/tesla-contents/image/upload/IR/TSLA-Q4-2024-Update.pdf
[2] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2Z5wEmgrroCZoV3csRxfXEAAAAIA&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[3] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44Z5wEmgrroCZoV3csRxfXEAAAAIA&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[4] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33Z5wEmgrroCZoV3csRxfXEAAAAIA&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[5] https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2025/01/29/tesla-tsla-q4-2024-earnings-call-transcript/
[6] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44Z5wEmgrroCZoV3csRxfXEAAAAIA&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[7] https://www.theregister.com/2023/01/18/tesla_selfdriving_video_faked/
[8] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33Z5wEmgrroCZoV3csRxfXEAAAAIA&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[9] https://www.theregister.com/2024/07/24/tesla_q2_2024/
[10] https://www.theregister.com/2025/01/29/trump_musk_starliner/
[11] https://www.theregister.com/2025/01/13/tesla_recalls_239382_vehicles_over/
[12] https://www.theregister.com/2025/01/08/nhtsa_tesla_smart_summon/
[13] https://www.theregister.com/2024/10/11/tesla_robotaxi_robovan_arrive/
[14] https://www.theregister.com/2024/12/10/tesla_sued_fatal_autopilot_accident/
[15] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-VfYjPzj1Xw
[16] https://companiesmarketcap.com/
[17] https://www.theregister.com/2025/01/21/doge_us_digital_service_renamed/
[18] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elon-musk-told-staff-x-190217517.html
[19] https://www.theregister.com/2024/10/21/shocking_elon_musks_1m_election/
[20] https://www.theregister.com/2025/01/07/musk_political_adventures/
[21] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
Re: "But I'm telling you, there's a damn wolf this time and you can drive it."
I thought the whole point with self-driving cars was that you *don't* drive them...
Re: "But I'm telling you, there's a damn wolf this time and you can drive it."
Someone should tell Musk!
Re: "But I'm telling you, there's a damn wolf this time and you can drive it."
Someone should get the President to get into a Tesla on FSD for his trips to the Golf Course and on the way back, drop into a McDonalds drive-thru
an alleged Nazi salute
Alleged? How much proof do you need?
alleged alej(a)d | adjective [attributive] (of an incident or a person) said, without proof, to have taken place or to have a specified illegal or undesirable quality
Re: an alleged Nazi salute
There's not enough proof in the universe to get a news publication to put itself in front of that particular legal train, I suspect. The fig-leaf is fine.
(Hmmmm, no Nazi icon. This is probably for the best...)
GJC
Re: an alleged Nazi salute
Yes, he may of been inspired by Mussolini rather Hitler.
Re: an alleged Nazi salute
If you watch videos when Hitler did the salute he went from the heart to the heil. It was the underlings who would start with their hand down and lift it. Maybe it was supposed to be a difference of how the leader does it versus how the underlings do it.
Regardless of the noise if I was a public figure and I made a gesture that some people misinterpreted as a Nazi salute, and literal Nazis were on the social media platform I owned saying that the best thing they'd ever seen for their movement and now they no longer had to hide in the shadows etc. etc. you better believe I'd be shouting from the rooftops that I did not intend that as a Nazi salute, hated Nazis and wanted to see them all die, and maybe use some of my unlimited bank account to make a generous donation to some anti-Nazi organization by way of apology.
Instead from Musk we got silence while he let others try to fig leaf him, then a 'joke' on Twitter. No apology, no acknowledgement of why it could have been misconstrued but was not what he intended, no condemnation of Nazis, nothing.
So yeah, he is a literal Nazi and there is no longer any arguing that fact.
Re: an alleged Nazi salute
As long as he says that it wasn't, you're not going to find many news organizations saying that it was. After all, proving that it wasn't him screwing something up will be difficult because he screws a lot of things up. He got an idiom wrong when the idiom consists of two words. Most reputable ones will have their one phrasing for what it was, but they won't be as definite as you had in mind.
Car sales, an entirely unscientific survey
I have asked a few people I met at Superchargers over the last few days. About 50/50 split between not really caring who builds their car, and strong feelings that this would be their last Tesla solely because of who builds them. I'm in the latter camp, after eight years owning my Model S, I will be replacing it with something non-Tesla when the time comes.
So, expect a big drop-off in car sales figures over the coming years, perhaps. Although that might not matter if the Robotaxis are viable (yeah, I know...).
GJC
Re: Car sales, an entirely unscientific survey
The drop off in Tesla sales was inevitable as every other car maker got into the market often making better designed and better built cars, his antics just made it worse.
I think Tesla's problem going forward is now Musk himself. His association with Trump, the Nazi salute, the backing of far right parties in the UK and Germany. These might be things that put people who are centrist or lean politically left off buying a Tesla, because they don't want to give money to a company run by someone who is looking like they are becoming more far right as the days go on.
Them against us. Blindly follow the leader.
I'm afraid that a lot of people who are *not* centrist or lean politically left now will buy a Tesla *because* of those actions.
Re: Them against us. Blindly follow the leader.
You mean those guys who swear that EVs were invented by Satan to make people go "woke" or something along those well thought-out lines?
Pretty improbable.
In fact I currently fail to see how a very outspoken CEO publicly and offensively aligning himself politically with consumers who hate the product of its company could possibly play out financially.
I guess Tesla might follow the Twitter, er, "lead", shedding half its value until year end...
Here's the rub
Americans seem to be too stupid to realize these azz hats work for them. Their taxes pay these guy's salaries. The public are their bosses. I don't know why you don't just bankrupt their azzes to begin with... I can't understand that part yet. I mean... their plan is to crash the economy and steal your money anyway. Just pull your money out and walk away.
But, if you insist on being on their websites, and giving them unnecessary clicks and attention, you should be telling them stuff like "get the f*ck off social and get to work, I don't pay you to be on your phone!" You are their boss. Act like it.
Re: Here's the rub
Who are you referring to? Politicians theoretically work for the public, and they get people shouting instructions at them all the time. They ignore those people. If you have a way of changing that, I'd like the details on that.
If you're talking about Tesla, though, then they don't work for the public. They work for their shareholders, the people who saw Musk make the same statements he always made and cheerfully bought more stock. The people who approved paying Musk billions. Enough of them evidently don't mind whatever Musk is doing. The rest of the public can do little to change this. They could refuse to buy anything from Tesla, but that only goes so far.
Re: Here's the rub
You are trying to tell me muskrat has never gotten government money (stares at you blankly)? Tesla and space ass and his crypto scams (of which is komrads just pulled another crypto crime btw) never received federal money? You DO know he is a federal employee who has an office over seeing federal funds now IN WASHINGTON ON PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE.
I swear talking to cultists is like talking to heroin addicts. They cannot be helped because they do not want to help themselves, they are too far gone.
Bankrupt these bitches. Before they bankrupt you. Then tell them they are fired.
He could do well
We're agreed that regulation is what's mostly standing in Tesla's way, and Musk has just been put in charge of, basically, doing away with whatever regulations he doesn't like, so... yeah. That's totally not a conflict of interest.
They don't even need to change the law, the executive branch can just direct the regulators to stop enforcing the relevant rules. We know that's within their power.
Re: He could do well
I think that you will be amazed by the surge of sales when American finally have the freedom to choose a gasoline powered Tesla. The goodness of Tesla and the patriotism of gasoline should see a huge surge in sales. Elon has just been holding back all the new Tesla models because California was stopping him selling the gasoline Wankenpanzers that are the future. Well that and the lack of government subsidies to develop a Tesla AI combustion engine, and subsidies for building new engine factories, and freedom subsidies for every gasoline car sold with xAI engine technology that increases prosperity by intelligently using more gasoline than other "old auto" manufacturers engines are even capable of.
Re: He could do well
The tyranny is coming from inside the house
If the regulations at home are too restrictive then why doesn't he release his FSD in some location where restrictions are less and peoples' lives are less important than corporate profits, like Texas.
Err he IS releasing it in Texas. The article states test cars are running in Austin.
Hover mouse over icon.
"It's literally five, six months away."
We're not talking about Earth months, do we?!
he expected the humanoid robot to bring in "$10 trillion in revenue, like it's really bananas"
I don't think the robot is the one who's "really bananas" here.
Can't possibly be worse than human Tesla drivers. They are by far the most entitled twats on the road.
Musk : There is no company in the world that is as good in real-world AI as Tesla. I don't even know who's in second place.
Boston Dynamics has entered the chat.
You don't even need to look outside of automotive to find companies better at AI than Tesla. For example, Mercedes has had level 3 autonomous driving for a while now. Telsa isn't really any good at anything apart from making empty promises and missing deadlines, they excel at those.
xSD
Musk on LSD
Tesla on FSD
"But I'm telling you, there's a damn wolf this time and you can drive it."
Is Musk trying to say that his muskmobiles now identify as Wolves?
Someone should tell the President!