Hands-on jobs to grow fastest, because AI can't touch them
- Reference: 1736493974
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2025/01/10/ai_jobs_wef/
- Source link:
The org (WEF) this week dropped its annual Future of Jobs [1]report [PDF], which is based on a survey of over 1,000 employers who collectively represent 14 million-plus workers across 22 industry clusters and 55 economies.
Respondents told the WEF that the three skills most in demand when they hire are AI and big data, networks and cybersecurity, and overall technological literacy.
[2]
"Half of employers plan to reorient their business in response to AI, two-thirds plan to hire talent with specific AI skills, while 40 percent anticipate reducing their workforce where AI can automate tasks," the report found.
[3]
[4]
Increasing use of AI is bad news for clerical and secretarial workers, and those other administrative roles that automation can easily replace, as the report found such roles are expected to see the steepest decline in job numbers over the next five years.
That’s scary, but could be worse. "On average, workers can expect that two-fifths (39 percent) of their existing skill sets will be transformed or become outdated over the 2025-2030 period,” the report found. “However, this measure of 'skill instability' has slowed compared to previous editions of the report, from 44 percent in 2023 and a high point of 57 percent in 2020 in the wake of the pandemic."
[5]
The report also has good news for those in roles that are hard for computers to replace, in the form of a prediction that fastest growth in job volumes will come to frontline roles such as farmworkers, delivery drivers, construction workers, sales people, and food processing workers. Care economy jobs, including nursing professionals, social workers, and personal care aides, are also expected to grow significantly. So will roles in the education industry.
[6]Disease X fever infects Davos: WEF to plan response to whatever big pandemic is next
[7]Rise of the machines is slower than expected says World Economic Forum
[8]World Economic Forum wants a global map of online crime
[9]The world is 'clearly' not prepared for cyberwarfare
But for IT workers, if you're not picking up skills in AI, big data, or software development, you could be left behind. The WEF also forecasts strong job growth for roles in robotics, autonomous systems, and energy generation, with specialists in areas like renewable energy engineering and electric vehicle technologies expected to enjoy greater job security.
The report rates the rising cost of living as the second-most transformative trend, suggesting it will cost 1.6 million jobs.
But respondents’ opinions suggest those jobs will be replaced.
"On current trends over the 2025 to 2030 period job creation and destruction due to structural labor-market transformation will amount to 22 percent of today’s total jobs. This is expected to entail the creation of new jobs equivalent to 14 percent of today’s total employment, amounting to 170 million jobs," the report found. "However, this growth is expected to be offset by the displacement of the equivalent of eight percent (or 92 million) of current jobs, resulting in net growth of seven percent of total employment, or 78 million jobs."
[10]
Trade issues are also on employers’ minds, with over a fifth of those surveyed saying increased restrictions on trade and investment will also shape their operations.
The report also references the WEF’s September 2024 Chief Economists Outlook, in which practitioners of the dismal science predicted short-term stability for the world economy, but a worsening trend in the longer term - particularly for developing economies. ®
Get our [11]Tech Resources
[1] https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Future_of_Jobs_Report_2025.pdf
[2] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_software/aiml&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2Z4D91Ux1tDYrMVKhYc6ajQAAARQ&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[3] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_software/aiml&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44Z4D91Ux1tDYrMVKhYc6ajQAAARQ&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[4] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_software/aiml&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33Z4D91Ux1tDYrMVKhYc6ajQAAARQ&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[5] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_software/aiml&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44Z4D91Ux1tDYrMVKhYc6ajQAAARQ&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[6] https://www.theregister.com/2024/01/12/disease_x_wef/
[7] https://www.theregister.com/2023/05/03/business_automation_slow_wef_report/
[8] https://www.theregister.com/2022/06/10/atlas_wef_rsa/
[9] https://www.theregister.com/2023/01/24/armis_cyberwarfare_report/
[10] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_software/aiml&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33Z4D91Ux1tDYrMVKhYc6ajQAAARQ&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[11] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
Re: So, what's their record like
https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/beware-davos-predictions-recent-experience-suggests/
Obviously well dated now, I'm pretty sure more recent WEF projections were similar tosh.
"administrative roles that automation can easily replace"
I have yet to be convinced that hallucinating pseudo-AI can easily replace anything but a bored Board member's schedule.
Re: "administrative roles that automation can easily replace"
They could replace some of HR, though that might just be simpler by an if-else-flow, though less easily deniable...
"if $(worker) request leave {
if $(worker.status) == troublesome worker.fire()
else $(worker.status) = trouble
fi
fi
or something like that. Having "AI" in it would make it deniable, ie. telling the tribunal "honest, guv, we wasn't ta know the machine would do that!"
Farmworkers, delivery drivers, construction workers, ... nursing, .. education
These are already sectors where there is a chronic shortage of labour, partly because of an ageing population and partly because public services are increasingly underfunded. I'm not sure how creatng more unfilled vacancies is going to help.
Re: Farmworkers, delivery drivers, construction workers, ... nursing, .. education
Don't worry people (or perhaps you should worry)
Elon the Bountiful will be onto it when Trumpo gets fed up with him and [drumroll please] gives him a pink slip and says, 'You're Fired'.
He will make robots that can do everything we can do... yes including that. Or that is what he said before he became all MAGA.
The US will need them if the OJ deports even 5% of the immigrant workers otherwise the MAGA cult faithful will not like it when the price of eggs doubles.
As the world develops
Skills and roles change to suit and meet the demands of the world as required.
I still think that there's an awful lot of hot air about what AI is bringing and we're a number of years down the line in terms of it's appearance in mainstream businesses, in any real meaningful way.
Over the last 5 years I've seen more focus on making sure AI doesn't drop you in the shite, than I have about replacing the workforce of secretarial pools that are still manually typing away on their analogue type writers.....
So much scaremongering on a technology that has yet to prove its worth in mainstream business, other than making loads of money for power companies who are only too happy to sling mega/gigawatts of power to your bit barn.
You don't know until you know
AI is exactly as good at physical jobs as it is at clerical and organisational ones, you just don't appreciate how bad it was at the latter until you need the output of its work.
This does entirely validate the belief that AI doesn't need to be good at anything to have a vast impact on the jobs market, it just needs salespeople who can convince the bosses it will justify firing people.
And of course, the gullible rubes who fall for the line will get their bonuses and move on long before the impact of their decisions finishes undermining the company, so there will be no meaningful consequences for anybody involved except the people who were good at their jobs and got fired.
I see a lot of applications of AI for work companies do not want to do anyway, like customer support after the sale has been completed. Or at least, I see advertisement for such applications.
Currently, actual phone numbers for customer support are well hidden and you wait ages for someone to actually pick up the phone. In future, you might be finding these phone numbers easily and they will pick up the phone immediately. But there will be an AI at the other end of the line that reproduces the FAQ* in speech. All bets are off if your question in not in the FAQ. If the answers are bad, that is the customers problem, just as the non-answers of the human customer support persons are not their employers problem.
That is, AI will give the impression there is someone listening to you and solving your problems. Keeping up the impression is all that counts.
* AI is good at statistics. Statistics are good for Frequently Asked Questions. Much less so for Rarely Asked Questions (RAQ). But RAQ is why you called customer support in the first place.
As with any survey, one of the first steps in evaluating its results is to find out who was surveyed. in the case of WEF it's likely to be those levels of management most detached from reality.
Gen AI/LLMs are Cheaper than People
... until you need accurate output.
Using Google Translate, inputting the Japanese hiragana for "drug addict" returned the English phrase, "happy medicine cow".
Generative AI and large language models are not as useful/effective as their promoters represent them as being.
So, what's their record like
I wish stories like this were accompanied by a brief history of how well their previous predictions had planned out