Trump's tariff threats could bump PC prices by almost half
- Reference: 1735826408
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2025/01/02/trump_tariff_pc_prices/
- Source link:
This prediction comes from market watcher [1]Canalys , which expects total PC shipments stateside to edge up 2 percent in both 2025 and 2026, after an estimated rise of 6 percent during 2024 to just under 70 million units.
In a report issued over the Christmas period, the number cruncher said laptops had been the main driver of recent growth, with shipments of these up 9 percent year-on-year during Q3 2024.
[2]
Looking ahead to 2025 and beyond, it expects to see the market continue to expand, albeit at a slower rate than previously anticipated due to weaker momentum in the Windows refresh cycle and "headwinds related to macroeconomic policies."
[3]
[4]
Those headwinds include the tariffs [5]discussed by President-elect Trump , although nobody can be entirely sure if he will actually go ahead and implement them until after his inauguration. Other factors such as potential federal spending cuts could also throw hinder PC sales, said Canalys.
"With the 2024 US Presidential election coming to a close, macroeconomic conditions in the US are not expected to be as stable in the near term as they have been over the last year or two," Canalys analyst Greg Davis stated. "With reports of import tariffs seemingly on the horizon, the PC market will likely be impacted in a noticeable way."
[6]
Davis referred to a recent study by the [7]Consumer Technology Association (CTA) that suggests the proposed tariffs would result in price rises for laptops and tablets of as much as 46 percent. Signals from the supply chain suggest there could be some stockpiling of inventory in early 2025 as distributors try to get ahead of the anticipated rise in prices, he claimed.
"A longer-term risk factor stems from the proposed public sector budget cuts, both for federal government and education procurement of PCs," added Davis. "Although 2025 budgets will remain largely intact, we anticipate future spending on technology from these areas could be reduced."
This is despite earlier predictions that the industry was set to enjoy a hardware upgrade boom, driven by the impending [8]cutoff date for Windows 10 support of October 14 and the desire of corporations to [9]refresh their fleet with AI PCs , rather than risk being left behind by their rivals.
[10]Cloudy with a chance of GPU bills: AI's energy appetite has CIOs sweating
[11]Microsoft preps big guns to shift Copilot software and PCs
[12]AI PCs: 'Something will have to give in 2025, and I think it's pricing'
[13]AI PCs flood the market. Their makers hope someone wants them
Some customers were already wavering over a major replacement purchase because of confusion over exactly [14]what constitutes an AI-capable box , as well as the premium price tag carried by these systems.
Some estimates already put the average cost of an AI PC at between 5 and 15 percent higher than traditional kit, which led a senior Gartner analyst to conclude last year that [15]something would have to give , most likely on the pricing side.
[16]
Davis said that even though a commercial refresh powered by Windows 11 is set to gather some strength, it still has a way to go.
"While Microsoft and its partners will work to improve the overall awareness of the Windows 10 end-of-life throughout 2025, we expect a sizable portion of fleet refreshes will happen after the end of service date," he predicted.
"This is due to the relatively modest pace of the transition so far, especially given that a large portion of the current installed base remains on Windows 10 just 10 months out from the October 2025 deadline."
However, he added that both large and small businesses had begun showing stronger PC fleet refresh activity, and robust seasonal discounting around Black Friday and Cyber Monday last year could push up the final shipment figures for Q4 2024. ®
Get our [17]Tech Resources
[1] https://www.canalys.com/newsroom/us-pc-market-q3-2024?ctid=4324-107415452ba5630c43b01f537b8517d3
[2] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/personaltech&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2Z3bGMjfmiQq7f-id6ODxSQAAAQQ&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[3] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/personaltech&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44Z3bGMjfmiQq7f-id6ODxSQAAAQQ&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[4] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/personaltech&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33Z3bGMjfmiQq7f-id6ODxSQAAAQQ&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[5] https://www.theregister.com/2024/11/26/trump_tariffs_mexico_canada/
[6] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/personaltech&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44Z3bGMjfmiQq7f-id6ODxSQAAAQQ&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[7] https://shop.cta.tech/products/how-the-proposed-trump-tariffs-increase-prices-for-consumer-technology-products
[8] https://www.theregister.com/2024/10/14/final_year_windows_10/
[9] https://www.theregister.com/2024/05/28/windows_to_drive_pc_refresh/
[10] https://www.theregister.com/2024/11/29/public_cloud_ai_alternatives/
[11] https://www.theregister.com/2024/11/29/microsoft_preps_big_guns_for/
[12] https://www.theregister.com/2024/11/22/premium_priced_ai_pcs/
[13] https://www.theregister.com/2024/11/14/ai_pc_shipments/
[14] https://www.theregister.com/2024/06/05/ai_pc_confusion/
[15] https://www.theregister.com/2024/11/22/premium_priced_ai_pcs/
[16] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/personaltech&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33Z3bGMjfmiQq7f-id6ODxSQAAAQQ&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[17] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
Re: But surely
How would these tariffs affect any individual personally importing stuff for their own use? Like buying from AliExpress for example.
Re: But surely
I'd guess that they will be evaluated for customs fee's at point of entry.
Re: But surely
With added handling fees, of course.
Americans in shambles over having to pay the same price Europeans already pay.
If Americans want domestic jobs and social programs then the prices of luxury goods will need to go up, these tariffs are essentially a wealth transfer from the rich to the working class.
Eh?
"these tariffs are essentially a wealth transfer from the rich to the working class."
Trump does not care about the working class. His mega rich pals will not be bothered by tariffs. They can afford to pay them (And get most of that $$$ back as tax writeoffs)
The working class OTOH can't avoid them. They are the ones getting poorer.
Unless... you are an Ultra MAGA Red Hat (made in China) wearing cultist?
If you are then prepare to worship his excellency Maximus Musk, the real POTUS.
Re: Eh?
I know that people say that a country gets the government that it deserves, but what did the US do to be saddled with the likes of Trump, Musk and co?
Re: Eh?
what did the US do to be saddled with the likes of Trump, Musk and co?
It is what they did not do: not listen to the what Trump was saying and think it through; not understand that Trump's low morals, lying, made up facts are not what is needed for a good president; not look at the reprobates that Trump surrounded himself with; ...
Do ? Listening to Fox news is a good start.
Re: Eh?
@nematoad
"but what did the US do to be saddled with the likes of Trump, Musk and co?"
4 years of Biden and Harris as the alternative option
Sure, the failed condo salesman and the FUCHUR sales guy are really planning for the betterment of the little guy through tariffs. I remember when the orthodoxy was that it was outrageous to suggest a sugar tax because it was so horrifically pigovian.
The good news is the long this counterfactual ideology continues (going on for a generation now) the more I'm converted to it so eventually I'll just lie just as easily.
If Trump uses tariffs to offset income tax cuts for the rich, then no, "these tariffs are essentially a wealth transfer from the rich to the working class." is incorrect.
Backwards
If the tariffs targeted only luxury goods -- Caviar, Champagne, and such, they would indeed be a tax on the wealthy. However Trump was talking about across the board tariffs on everything foreign including essentials. Aside from being a rather dumb idea with a long history of awful results, that would surely hit the working class harder than the wealthy who have a far higher savings rate and thus pay a tax lower percentage of their income than the average citizen. Since the tariff revenue would presumably be used to finance yet another tax cut for the wealthy, the result would be yet another transfer of wealth from lower and middle class Americans to the wealthy.
Avoid Imports?
Would appear to be the logic here?
Assuming the orange one goes ahead with those tariffs, there's a myriad of other options to choose from surely?
Re: Avoid Imports?
The logic is simply preaching to the blue collar crowd, who correctly identify that China and others are making the goods that the US used to, and putting up tariff walls does protect an economy (albeit with some downsides).
However, the masses can't see that thirty plus years of offshoring to cheap locations can't be reversed in less than a similar amount of time, so tariffs will simply make their purchases more expensive and their wages go less far. As noted by some other posters, the tariffs go to the federal government, but are only ever going to be used for tax cuts for billionaires.
Re: Avoid Imports?
https://madeintheusamatters.com/laptop-desktop-computers-made-in-the-usa/ Better sources of information may be available.
Ironically, Lenovo are on that list ;-)
Re: Avoid Imports?
But that is generally just a screwdriver plant that assembles computers from foreign-made components, and the markup for a pre-build vs the cost of buying the components individually isn't generally that huge.
Seriously who cares
I mean if prices go up then people have a choice
Now let’s add some tariffs to social media
Then the fun would begin
America right now is propped up by its Tech companies once the world moves away then the American empire will collapse
Re: Seriously who cares
But those tech companies aren't manufacturing at home so this tariff bump will hit their sales.
Remember that it won't hit them directly; it's always the customer that pays the tariff.
Divide and be ruled
Not living in the USA I am more worried about what happens at home (UK) than in the other side of the pond.
The USA is a large economy and provides a lot of tech and buys a lot of our goods -- but not all of them by a long way.
Trump will try to tie other countries up with individual trade deals, do not do what he says and he will yank the trade deal away.
If the rest of the world unites we can force Trump to behave to everyone's benefit rather than what Trump thinks is best for him personally (and the USA secondly).
Nice in theory but getting countries to act together is very hard. A few will be seduced by Trump offering trinkets - this will seem good in the short term until Trump changes it when escaping his clutches will be hard. Forward thinking is needed - something that our politician are not known for
Re: Divide and be ruled
Exports to the US will go down.
Imports from the US will likely get more expensive due to retaliatory tariffs.
If companies can't sell so much stuff to the USA, they will look to make up for it by selling more to other markets, such as the UK. That might mean slightly lower prices, but this isn't certain.
But surely
Canada Mexico China will pay