A mystery disease with a fatality rate higher than COVID-19 has broken out in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and while the global pandemic risk is currently considered to be low, some of the world's biggest tech giants may want to dust off those pandemic supply chain disruption plans.

There have been 406 cases of the mysterious disease reported in the DRC's southwestern [1]Kwango Province since October 24, the World Health Organization (WHO) [2]said Sunday. Of the known infections, 31 people – mostly children – have died, giving the disease a case fatality ratio of 7.6 percent, seven times greater than the estimated [3]1 percent of COVID-19 infections that have proved fatal.

That estimate may be low, however. "There have been several additional deaths outside of health facilities [that] still need to be investigated, characterized, and verified," the WHO noted.

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Symptoms of the unidentified disease include fever, headache, cough, runny nose, and body aches, with victims in fatal cases also exhibiting difficulty breathing, anemia, and signs of acute malnutrition.

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"Given the clinical presentation and symptoms reported, and a number of associated deaths, acute pneumonia, influenza, COVID-19, measles, and malaria are being considered as potential causal factors with malnutrition as a contributing factor," the WHO said. "Laboratory tests are under way to determine the exact cause. At this stage, it is also possible that more than one disease is contributing to the cases and deaths."

The WHO reported that the outbreak region has experienced food insecurity in recent months, has low vaccination rates, and limited access to diagnostic tests and healthcare services. The rural and remote nature of the towns where infections have been reported has also made deploying experts a slow process. According to the WHO, reaching the area from the DRC's capital of Kinshasa takes 48 hours by road, and there's no functional laboratory in the province.

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That's meant samples retrieved from patients have to be shipped back to the capital. To make matters worse, insecurity in the area means armed groups could disrupt the transport of medical experts and disease samples in and out of the region.

Broader outbreak could hobble the tech industry

The rural and remote area where the outbreak is occurring is advantageous, in one sense, because it means the risk of it spreading to the rest of the DRC is somewhat limited.

"At the national level, the risk is considered moderate due to the localized nature of the outbreak," the WHO said. "However, the potential for spread to neighboring areas, coupled with gaps in surveillance and response systems … underscores the need for heightened preparedness."

If the unknown disease manages to spread beyond the remote villages of Kwango Province, there's the risk it could end up disrupting supplies of critical minerals used in a variety of technology products.

The DRC's economy relies heavily on mineral mining. It's the world's [8]largest producer of cobalt, a critical component of rechargeable batteries found in many electronics, and is often mined in [9]unsafe and inhumane conditions that have led to criticism and [10]legal issues for the tech industry in recent years.

[11]Disease X fever infects Davos: WEF to plan response to whatever big pandemic is next

[12]Clueless do-gooders make Africa's conflict mineral mines even more dangerous

[13]No, AI can't tell if you've got COVID-19 by listening to your coughs

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Along with cobalt, the DRC is Africa's largest producer of copper and contains vast deposits of tin, tungsten, [15]tantalum – also known as the " [16]three Ts " – and gold. The US International Trade Administration estimates untapped mineral reserves in the DRC are worth as much as $24 trillion.

Even if the mysterious disease breaking out in southwestern DRC begins to spread, it could end up under control before it reaches mining operations in the DRC, which are mostly confined to the [17]eastern side of the nation.

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There are a lot of unknowns surrounding this situation. It's not clear whether this is a novel pathogen or something that's been identified in the past whose spread has been exacerbated by instability in Kwango, whether it has the potential to spread further, or if we're already past the worst of it. Reported cases peaked during the week of November 9, but new cases continue to emerge, according to the WHO.

We've been here before, staring down the barrel of a potential pandemic that [19]disrupted supply chains all over the world . Even with the chance of regional or global spread currently considered low, it would behoove businesses whose supply chains could be disrupted for this reason [20]or another to make some contingency plans before it's too late. ®

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[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Provinces_of_the_Democratic_Republic_of_the_Congo#/media/File:2006_Nouvelles_provinces_de_la_R%C3%A9publique_D%C3%A9mocratique_du_Congo.png

[2] https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2024-DON546

[3] https://data.who.int/dashboards/covid19/cases?n=c

[4] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2Z1d2lzfmiQq7f-id6OBQ5wAAARM&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0

[5] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44Z1d2lzfmiQq7f-id6OBQ5wAAARM&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0

[6] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33Z1d2lzfmiQq7f-id6OBQ5wAAARM&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0

[7] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44Z1d2lzfmiQq7f-id6OBQ5wAAARM&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0

[8] https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/democratic-republic-congo-market-overview

[9] https://www.theregister.com/2016/01/19/amnesty_international_accuses_tech_giants_of_battery_bastardry/

[10] https://abcnews.go.com/International/us-court-absolves-top-tech-companies-congos-child/story?id=107839639

[11] https://www.theregister.com/2024/01/12/disease_x_wef/

[12] https://www.theregister.com/2015/08/05/once_more_on_those_blood_soaked_mobiles/

[13] https://www.theregister.com/2023/01/05/ai_covid_cough/

[14] https://www.theregister.com/2021/09/17/alphabet_project_taara_congo/

[15] https://www.theregister.com/2011/11/14/african_minerals/

[16] https://www.theregister.com/2010/11/02/tantalum_congo_minerals/

[17] https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Major-mining-areas-of-important-mineral-commodities-in-the-DRC_fig2_344674669

[18] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33Z1d2lzfmiQq7f-id6OBQ5wAAARM&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0

[19] https://www.theregister.com/2022/04/19/chinese_shanghai_slowdown/

[20] https://www.theregister.com/2024/11/01/us_trump_tariff/

[21] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/