Musk and Trump to fall out in 2025, predicts analyst
- Reference: 1733297173
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2024/12/04/musk_trump_china_agenda/
- Source link:
Speaking at the Canalys APAC Forum, Brazier said the recent US election saw "two people elected" – the second being Musk, not vice president-elect JD Vance.
Brazier thinks Trump and Musk will fall out over China, because the former's proposed trade war against is at odds with the latter's reliance on China as a market for Tesla, as well as a source of batteries and other supplies.
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Trump's promise to implement [2]60 percent tariffs on all Chinese goods therefore hurt Musk and Tesla.
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Brazier also pointed out that Tesla's biggest factory is in Shanghai, and that Beijing gave the EV-maker the very unusual concession of not requiring it to operate a joint venture with a Chinese company. Tesla has also received subsidies from the Chinese state, and remains keen to expand its energy storage business there.
"Tesla needs batteries from China, or it cannot operate," commented Brazier.
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"But most critically for Tesla in China, they need to offer full self-driving, or they'll fall behind the innovation of the Chinese industry." But to deliver that feature, Tesla will need to navigate China's laws around cross-border data-sharing and assure US authorities any agreement doesn't represent risk for stateside buyers.
All of this is at odds with Trump's modus operandi of "picking fights everywhere possible as tariffs come in on China," Brazier explained.
[6]Starlink gets FCC nod for space calls, but can't dial up full power
[7]Here's how a Trump presidency could change the tech industry
[8]What might a second term of Trump mean for the US space program?
[9]Biden administration bars China from buying HBM chips critical for AI accelerators
China has begun to take the incoming administration's threats seriously, as evidenced by the Tuesday [10]announcement yesterday regarding the export of some raw materials.
Taiwan poses another threat to the Trump/Musk bromance, Brazier observed. China has not gone to war with any nation for decades, but has expressed its intention to reunify with Taiwan. Trump has claimed that he doesn't want to pay for Taiwan's defense – but Tesla, alongside the whole of the tech industry, is dependent on Taiwan and semiconductors made there.
"Ninety percent of semiconductors are made there, mainly by TSMC, so Tesla can't function without Taiwan," Brazier commented.
Nobody wins trade wars: Lenovo Also at the Canalys Forum, Lenovo’s global channel boss Pascal Bourguet said he believes the PC maker can cope with a trade war thanks to its extensive global network of manufacturing facilities.
Bourguet suggested Lenovo's supply chain is sufficiently robust that if nations impose tariffs, it can shift production to a jurisdiction where geopolitical issues are less impactful.
He also shared his view that tariffs help nobody.
"Tariffs are not good for biz because the increase prices," he told the event. "I do not think they will make the economy better. Nobody will win."
But China doesn't need to invade Taiwan – or even blockade it – to hurt the global economy. Instead, it could sow chaos by cutting submarine cables – an action it's already [11]suspected of taking in the Baltic Sea.
Taiwan could reconnect to the world using satellite broadband services like the Musk-run Starlink. But Starlink doesn't operate in Taiwan, because Musk doesn't want to upset Beijing by showing favor to the island nation, alleged Brazier.
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Musk and Trump both claim to be all for small government, yet Tesla has received US government subsidies and Uncle Sam is a huge SpaceX customer.
Finding mutually agreeable positions on these issues won't be possible. Furthermore, Brazier thinks Musk's reported dislike of collegiate collaboration and sharing power will mean the relationship becomes untenable.
"Musk and Trump will no longer be friends by the end of 2025," Brazier predicted. "Give them a year to get some regulations sorted for his [Musk's] companies, and they will fall out." ®
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[2] https://www.theregister.com/2024/11/01/us_trump_tariff/
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[7] https://www.theregister.com/2024/11/13/president_trump_tech/
[8] https://www.theregister.com/2024/11/12/trump_space_program/
[9] https://www.theregister.com/2024/12/03/biden_hbm_china_export_ban/
[10] https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-bans-exports-gallium-germanium-antimony-us-2024-12-03/
[11] https://www.theregister.com/2024/11/21/chinese_ship_baltic_cable/
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[13] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
Re: They will fall out over ego
I think Elon is totally able to schmooze Trump for a very long time, and Trump knows that being Elon's friend is good for his brand. But there is a bigger problem regarding "Tesla's ability to execute on full self-driving vehicles" — Elon has promised the cybercab for 2027, meaning it definitely won't be ready by the end of Trump's term in 2029.
Re: They will fall out over ego
"the end of Trump's term in 2029"
That's assuming a lot about [1]a nation with more guns than people .
[1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/06/19/there-are-more-guns-than-people-in-the-united-states-according-to-a-new-study-of-global-firearm-ownership/
Value for money
I'm pretty sure Musk is expecting some favour from King Don the Turd, he's spent a lot of pocket money to buy him so he will expect a return on that but I think the main reason for the falling out will be the Whitehouse just not being big enough to accommodate two ginormous overinflated egos.
Oh no? Really?
Who are these amazing analysts? Trump falls out with literally everybody. It's nailed on to happen.
Re: Oh no? Really?
Unless the Hamberder gets its revenge first.
Things could have been an awful lot worse ... Kamilla could have won.
"Musk and Trump both claim to be all for small government,"
And Truth, Justice, Apple Pie and the American Way.
Unless of course "Big government" can hand them bigger profits, or more power to abuse their opponents and/or competitors.
Then they're all for it.
Re: "Musk and Trump both claim to be all for small government,"
Small government costs less thus leaving more money for them to hoover up.
"Things could have been an awful lot worse ..."
If you think an election denier (replacing a guy who pays for sex with teenagers), a serial cheating, alcoholic Faux News host who may have a supply of roofies for Sec DoD, some Ahole for FBI director and an anti-vaxxer and conspiracy-theorist for-profit as head of HSS is the worst that the FOCF can come up with you have a very limited imagination.
And BTW her name is "Kamala*." She's was the one without the 34 felony convictions who didn't owe NYC $354m for his companies ongoing frauds (plus interest).
*Although I can't help think of the situation her campaign ended up in as a "Kamala-lama dingdong" :-)
Re: "Things could have been an awful lot worse ..."
Oh dear, you REALLY need to step away from bluesky.
"an election denier"
Does this include all the people claiming the 2024 election was stolen from Kamala? No? Oh.
"pays for sex with teenagers"
3 years of investigations, nothing! You are fake news.
"a serial cheating"
Doug Emhoff? Oh wait, getting the nanny pregnant was (D)ifferent.
"alcoholic"
Nancy Pelosi? Kamala looked pretty loaded in her latest video begging for more donations. But seriously you're REALLY scraping the barrel here. The 'smelled alcohol on their breath' is the usual police excuse to drag you from your car just so they can search it and stitch you with some other crime or just to confiscate your stuff.
"some Ahole"
Oh you can do better than that!
"anti-vaxxer and conspiracy-theorist"
You are aware that he isn't either of those. But then you live in a very black and white world and have been indoctrinated to hate anyone who doesn't fully agree with you.
Re: "Things could have been an awful lot worse ..."
fuck off back to russia with the lies, hope you end up in the trenches cowering from ukraine drones
Re: "Things could have been an awful lot worse ..."
So polite, this is why your side wins elections ;)
Re: China cutting Taiwan cables
Is it practical for the US to require all internet traffic between the US and China to pass through Taiwan?
Re: China cutting Taiwan cables
They pass all traffic through what on first glance appear to be some really unlikely places until you realise those places happily allow intercept stations to be set up so they can surveil US internet traffic without being subject to US laws.
Make America abandon all hope Again
Well, I could see the bromance getting slightly complicated and souring up some, but am not so sure about a full-fledged fallout. They both agree on the importance of keeping social media unaccountable to standards of reality and truth, and both agree that cryptocurrencies are great for their tax-avoiding accounting strategies, plus both seem to agree that those who appear to be very rich should be above the law, and not governed by government (which is for little peoples, with little hands, ...). I expect there to be plenty of other areas where they agree. I could also imagine the incoming administration subsidizing " local " EV battery production, possibly on the ruins of Northvolt, to both spite China and help Tesla/Musk.
There's been many hopes over the years that terrible circumstances could be overturned by reason, from Petraeus Betray Us to the Mueller Report (and more) ... the protagonists seem to be way too slick, slimy, slippery, shady, treacherous, sly, greasy, deceitful, lubricious, shifty, wily, and devious, for just about anything to stick, especially hope for some form of incarceration, disintegration, or even course correction, IMHO!
My apologies for not being more optimistic about this prospect
Poor old Trump
If that happens, Musk can break him financially and ruin his name on 'X'.
Re: Poor old Trump
“Ruin his name”
Oh boy, is that even possible?
Really?
Shocked
People wanting Trump to fail already predicting failure. The most amusing part is how Trump isnt even president yet and has them all worked up.
Re: Shocked
The most amusing part is seeing your orange cheeks from your ever harder attempts to insert your tongue between his cheeks and into his starfish.
Re: Shocked
[1]https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/12/2/2289015/-Cartoon-Tom-the-Dancing-Bug-cries-into-its-oat-milk-latte-while-MAGA-wins
That's right bud, you're safe!
[1] https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/12/2/2289015/-Cartoon-Tom-the-Dancing-Bug-cries-into-its-oat-milk-latte-while-MAGA-wins
Re: Shocked
@sabroni
"https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/12/2/2289015/-Cartoon-Tom-the-Dancing-Bug-cries-into-its-oat-milk-latte-while-MAGA-wins"
Was that from 2016 or 2024? Isnt this the same tripe being peddled for the past 9 years?
"That's right bud, you're safe!"
I live in the UK not the US.
I do wonder why you posted in reply to me as you seem to have made a stand alone comment
They will fall out over ego
And it will happen in Q1 of next year.
There isn't a room big enough for both their egos, and him hanging around Trump trying to tell him who he should appoint and everyone else what they should do is going to start wearing thin. Probably the first time Musk takes credit for something is when it will happen.
I don't think he's realized that everything good that happens is because of Trump, and everything bad that happens is someone else's fault - and if he decides to pin the blame on you, you aren't allowed to contradict him. All the hangers-on who didn't learn that lesson in time were ejected from his orbit and became persona non grata.