Analysts predict 85 million EVs on roads by 2025 despite industry speed bumps
- Reference: 1729008007
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2024/10/15/85_million_evs_gartner/
- Source link:
The global figure given by consultants at Gartner is driven primarily by higher EV sales in China (58 percent) and Europe (24 percent). The regions are expected to account for a 82 percent of EVs worldwide.
The market researcher also expects demand for traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to grow, with [1]some analysts forecasting a compound annual growth rate of 9.2 percent to 2030.
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[3]According to Gartner , there will be 85 million EVs – cars, buses, vans, and heavy trucks – on the road by the end of 2025, up from 64 million in 2024. The market researcher counted BEVs and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in its figures, noting that the total of BEVs was forecast to grow faster than the total of PHEVs – 35 percent versus 28 percent.
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North America is expected to trail the rest of the world, with 10.4 million EVs by the end of 2025, compared to 20.6 million in Europe and 49 million in China.
The figures are strong but not as bullish as some estimates in recent years. Jonathan Davenport, a senior analyst director at Gartner, notes that the forecast came in spite of "several hurdles affecting the EV market over the past few months."
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"Many companies overestimated how quickly the switch to EVs would occur," he said. "This caused those companies to delay launching new EV models."
Earlier this year, [7]US automaker Ford announced that it would rethink its strategy as customers stayed away from the relatively expensive vehicles. Similarly, [8]Stellantis paused the production of the electric Fiat 500, citing poor demand amid a general slowdown in EV sales in the European car market.
[9]Tesla's big reveal: Steering-wheel-free Robotaxi will charge wirelessly
[10]Geico tells El Reg, no, it's not canceling all Cybertruck insurance
[11]EV sales hit speed bump as drivers unplug from the electric dream
[12]EVs continue to grow but private buyers are steering clear, say motor trade figures
Also not helping matters are tariffs in Europe and the US being imposed on Chinese-made EVs and, of course, the small matter of charging infrastructure and range, all of which have contributed to purchasers opting to stick with ICE-powered machinery. A [13]recent report showed that just three in ten Americans were considering a battery-powered vehicle for their next purchase.
An EV is an undeniably expensive purchase, not least due to the cost of batteries and difficulties in getting hold of the raw materials required. Gartner forecasts that by 2030, automakers will have enabled the recycling of 95 percent of batteries from EVs to mitigate the issue of raw material supplies.
Davenport said: "A robust recycling effort to take advantage of materials in spent batteries and scrap from the manufacturing production process, together with EU efforts to mandate battery recycling, could reduce the need for more mineral excavation.
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"Because concentrations of rare metals in batteries are higher than in natural ores, spent batteries can be seen as highly enriched ore. If recovered at large scale, the spent batteries could support the overall commercial viability of EVs by bringing battery prices down.
"There would be the additional benefit of batteries not ending up being disposed of in unethical manners or put into landfill sites." ®
Get our [15]Tech Resources
[1] https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/internal-combustion-engine-market
[2] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/personaltech&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2Zw7mBjK4FuHbq-6fef6HZgAAANM&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[3] https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2024-10-14-gartner-forecasts-85-million-electric-vehicles-will-be-on-the-road-by-end-of-2025
[4] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/personaltech&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44Zw7mBjK4FuHbq-6fef6HZgAAANM&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[5] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/personaltech&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33Zw7mBjK4FuHbq-6fef6HZgAAANM&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[6] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/personaltech&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44Zw7mBjK4FuHbq-6fef6HZgAAANM&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[7] https://www.theregister.com/2024/02/07/ford_ev_strategy/
[8] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stellantis-pauses-production-electric-fiat-115639028.html
[9] https://www.theregister.com/2024/10/11/tesla_robotaxi_robovan_arrive/
[10] https://www.theregister.com/2024/10/07/geico_cancel_cybertruck_insurance/
[11] https://www.theregister.com/2024/08/30/electric_vehicle_sales/
[12] https://www.theregister.com/2024/08/06/evs_up_car_regs_uk/
[13] https://www.theregister.com/2024/06/28/us_ev_survey/
[14] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/personaltech&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33Zw7mBjK4FuHbq-6fef6HZgAAANM&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[15] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
Fortune tellers. Always reliable.
For perspective, there are approximately 1.475 billion vehicles in the world [according to Google]. So the numbers above are not great. If the human race makes it to 2050, most of those in the Global South will still be driving ICE vehicles.
Early adopters, like Apple fan boys, are easy. For the rest, it will be like removing molluscs from a rock with your butt cheeks.
The self-driving stuff torpedoed the focus on EV development. We could be a lot further ahead.
There will be more problems as these cars have too much tech, removing their resilience and increasing their cost/complexity/supply chain needs. When a vendor goes bust they will just stop working. To really spin EVs out globally, we need a 'Model T' EV - as simple and cheap as is physically possible. Batteries, analogue controls, FM radio, furry dice, no frills. Of course if the Chinese did this, the EU would stick a tariff on it and the US would ban it.
Re: Fortune tellers. Always reliable.
If the Chinese did it, it would
Catch fire
Be made partially by slave labour
In factories powered by coal-fired power stations
Be so cheap that no other country could compete due toassive subsidies.
Re: Fortune tellers. Always reliable.
"Be so cheap that no other country could compete due toassive subsidies."
Go look at the US and EU subsidies and tax breaks.
Then come back and report.
Until then I'll file this under blatant racism.
Re: Fortune tellers. Always reliable.
Criticizing human rights abuses and catastrophic environmental damage is racist, apparently. Or was it only the economic policy criticism that's racist?
Re: Fortune tellers. Always reliable.
Thanks god there is no racism, employees abuse, corporate fraud, unreliable cars and excessive subsidies in America right?
Re: Fortune tellers. Always reliable.
"When a vendor goes bust they will just stop working."
Rich Rebuilds has an episode on a Fiskar Ocean. No docs, no replacement parts, no manufacturer updates, no parts to update WTF engineering issues. The lack of any service documentation is a massive issue or it would be possible to get some of these orphan EV's and hack them into something useful while deleting the frilly extras so those don't malfunction and lock out the car.
Sorry nope.
Been working in engine prototyping for years. Probably covering 50% of all the western (and a couple of Chinese) car makers. For the last few years we've been prototyping your standard petrol & electric power plant, your newer electric meter powered by ICE and your pure EV.
Work at the moment is completely dead.
Why?
Because the manufacturers themselves don't have a clue what format of powerplant they want
. Som are going hybrid, some looking at all electric, some hydrogen and others a mix of everything
So Gartner....yeah.
In major shock, analysis probably paid for by EV manufacturers finds EV sales will increase dramatically.
Unmaintainable
Following on from the comment re 1.475 billion ICE's in the world, the secondary issue (cost being the first) for the owners of say 1 billion of these cars is that the ICE's they have can be fixed, the owners can get parts for decades old cars so they can keep them running and they can do the work themselves or at some cheap local shop
EV's not so much.
Firstly, EV's are very much "software defined" cars so when some computer based hardware or software component fails, the owner is screwed. The cloud based servers go off line...the owner is screwed. Do we think the car companies are going to keep the cloud services up for decades... don't think so.
Secondly, will the owner of a decades old EV be able to get a new battery to keep it on the road.... very much doubt it.
Poorer people (the vast majority of ICE owners) not only need access to cheap second hand cars but also cheap second hand cars that have a good supply of parts and can be fixed at home or by a local shop.
As this isn't (and may never be the case), the dream of a world where most cars are EV's is dead in the water.
Bluck
Analysts predict AI is awesome too.