Severe solar storm could disrupt power, communications
- Reference: 1728504910
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2024/10/09/g4_solar_storm/
- Source link:
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) [1]warned today that a coronal mass ejection (CME) detected on October 8 is moving fast - somewhere between 1,200 and 1,300 kilometers per second - and will likely strike Earth sometime early tomorrow, October 10.
According to SWPC, the storm has the potential to reach [2]G4 levels upon its arrival, putting it at just shy of the G5 maximum for geomagnetic storms.
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At G4 strength, the center noted effects may include widespread voltage control problems, interference with spacecraft operations, aurora borealis at lower altitudes than expected, and interruption to terrestrial communications.
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Along with the G4 storm, the SWPC said the CME headed for Earth will also bring with it an [6]S3-level solar radiation storm , which could harm astronauts and passengers on high-flying aircraft, disrupt solar panel efficiency, and degrade radio and navigation signal propagation. An R3-level radio blackout is also [7]expected from the CME that originated with yesterday's [8]X1.8 solar flare (relatively low in strength, but potentially disruptive due to its direct path toward Earth), potentially causing loss of high-frequency radio and degradation of low-frequency signals that could last for tens of minutes.
Hey, Sun - knock it off?
It's been a busy year for our star, with a massive [9]X6.3 solar flare in February, and Earth being hit by a [10]G5-level geomagnetic storm in May. If you're hoping things will calm down in the near future - sorry, we still have some more solar activity to endure.
We're approaching the peak of [11]solar cycle 25 , which began in December 2019 and is expected to peak next July. The NOAA previously predicted that cycle 25 would be a relatively calm one, but said during a press briefing today that it's already revised its prediction upward given the previous May storm. Instead of predicting between 137 and 166 sunspots (which give birth to CMEs), the SWPC believes we'll see between 165 and 186 of them.
"We have a good number [of G4 events] through the maximum of a solar cycle," SWPC service coordinator Shawn Dahl said during the briefing. G5-level storms, however, are rare. The October CME has the potential to reach G5, Dahl said, and if it does that would mark a rare moment when two G5 storms occurred within months of each other.
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"We went through the entire previous cycle without reaching G5," Dahl noted. The May event, Dahl said, was the first G5 storm since 2003.
[13]British railway system is getting another excuse for delays – solar storms
[14]China reveals space weather radar it claims represents a breakthrough
[15]Is your datacenter safe from the next X-class solar flare?
[16]Starlink suffers 'degraded service' from solar storm but emerges intact
The SWPC said it won't know the storm's true strength until it gets within one million miles of Earth, which is expected early tomorrow, about 15 to 30 minutes before reaching Earth.
But while this storm has the potential to be worse than our previous brush with a CME, Dahl said it likely won't reach the severity of the May storm.
"During the one in May, we had a series of CMEs that swept everything together and enhanced the effect," Dahl said. "This time we only have one."
The peak of solar activity in this busy cycle is coming next year, but that doesn't mean the solar maximum is over, Dahl said. Storms after the peak of a solar maximum can be even worse than earlier ones because of the position of sunspots.
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Early in a maximum, sunspots form closer to the Sun's poles before slowly migrating toward its equator. We still have around ten degrees to go before the Sun's many spots reach the equatorial region, Dahl said.
In short, we'll likely see plenty of storms, and southerly auroras, in the next year, but this one might be a slight disappointment for space weather watchers. Either way, keep an eye on the SWPC space weather [18]forecast tomorrow morning to ensure this one won't disrupt your day. ®
Get our [19]Tech Resources
[1] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/g4-severe-storm-watch-10-11-october
[2] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
[3] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2Zwb9BVPLBgOPLAjC-o4JkAAAAFM&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[4] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44Zwb9BVPLBgOPLAjC-o4JkAAAAFM&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[5] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33Zwb9BVPLBgOPLAjC-o4JkAAAAFM&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[6] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/s3-strong-solar-radiation-storm-progress
[7] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/r3-strong-hf-radio-blackout-event
[8] https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/10109/
[9] https://www.theregister.com/2024/02/23/solar_flare_warning/
[10] https://www.theregister.com/2024/05/10/g4class_solar_storm/
[11] https://www.weather.gov/news/201509-solar-cycle#:~:text=We%20are%20now%20in%20Solar%20Cycle%2025%20with%20peak%20sunspot,Solar%20Cycle%201%20in%201755.
[12] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44Zwb9BVPLBgOPLAjC-o4JkAAAAFM&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[13] https://www.theregister.com/2023/12/12/train_solar_storm/
[14] https://www.theregister.com/2024/05/24/china_space_weather_radar/
[15] https://www.theregister.com/2022/10/24/datacenter_solar_storm_emp/
[16] https://www.theregister.com/2024/05/13/starlink_solar_storm/
[17] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33Zwb9BVPLBgOPLAjC-o4JkAAAAFM&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[18] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
[19] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
Man made
Seems like another potential money spinner.
Just convince the public these flares are man made and then tax everyone*.
Next step is to start billions worth of tenders for research how to stop man made solar flares.
* except the rich.
Chief Vitalstatistix has commented "the sky will fall on his head tomorrow".
I'm not worried about any of this because I have my trusty tin foil hat. Guaranteed to block solar radiation and the Lizard Illuminati mind control being transmitted via 5G.
Tin foil hat is 4G thing. For 5G it is enough to make a cross with the fingers directed at the transmitter. The beam forming antennas will then avoid you like vampires avoid garlic.
Fools
Can't you see what's going on here? This is what is known as "sputtering". Pretty soon the sun will either make a pleasing kaboom, or it'll just fizzle out. Either way, not so great for us.
The only way to fix this is just like with a paraffin lamp, it needs to be repressurised. However, in order to go and pump some air into the sun to get it back up to the correct burning pressure, it would be complex and costly. Therefore we need a new Sun Restoration tax, and everybody who pays into it gets a official Sun emoji badge to show that they have done their part.
Re: Fools
Just don't look behind the curtain and wonder where all this "air" will come from, because short of grabbing Jupiter and lobbing it at the Sun...
...no, just obediently pay your Sun tax like a good little citizen.
We just need A Good Team
Everyone who has seen that important Earth saving documentary The Core knows all that's required is a team of boffins, and the best of the brave to create and operate a craft to re-ignite the sun.
It'll need technical and political oversight, so part of the crew should include Liz Truss, Boris Johnson, and Elon Musk.
Sadly the ignition module will fail to correctly deploy first time and will need brave, button pushing assistance from Mr Musk. When reversing the polarity of the electron flow there will be an unfortunate blow back and Mr Musk will be incinerated. Sad times, hey what's for tea?
Following the successful re-ignition there's tragedy as an errant solar flare scrambles all systems and all aboard ironically freeze to death as the sun sparkles in the distance.
Statues to these brave adventurers will be deployed for all to enjoy at the bottom of the Atlantic ocean.
Hey sun DON'T knock it off
This is making some great aurora displays for those of us who live a couple thousand miles south of where they are typically visible! Keep it coming sun, just no repeats of the Carrington Event, we don't need to find out what that would do to our modern technology!
Whoa
I just had my Covid vaccine update- these solar flares won't stop my microchip from working will they?
I still haven't seen a single aurora. Every time this happens we have cloud cover. Every sodding time.
More X flares have happened in last 48 hours
There have been more X flares in last 48 hours, not quite as big as the first one so far. I think that humanity luck with solar flares have run out for now. Prepare for no internet for a while. Because while fibre does not care, their terminal do and they might be toast of things go really badly.
Disconnect anything from the grid power of things go badly. To avoid fried electronics.