News: 1721837049

  ARM Give a man a fire and he's warm for a day, but set fire to him and he's warm for the rest of his life (Terry Pratchett, Jingo)

Musk deflects sluggish Tesla car sales with Optimus optimism

(2024/07/24)


Tesla profits were nearly halved in the second quarter of 2024, extending a run of woe for the company, lightened only by a surge in energy generation and storage.

According to [1]figures filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Tesla's revenues were mostly flat, registering barely a 2 percent increase. The company's $25.5 billion in revenue was just above the $24.9 billion for the same period in 2023, although revenue from automotive sales was down from $20.4 billion to $18.4 billion.

However, the figure was bumped up by automotive regulatory credits, which rose from $282 million to $890 million, and a surge in energy generation sales, which rose from $1.4 billion to $2.9 billion.

[2]

The company's shares dipped as markets digested the news, with some analysts worrying that Tesla's core car business was under pressure. Others looked to the brighter autonomous future promised by CEO Elon Musk.

[3]

[4]

In an [5]earnings call , Musk blamed discounting from competitors as a factor making life difficult for Tesla rather than, say, the substantial legal costs incurred by [6]laying off 10 percent of its workforce .

The billionaire tycoon did pay tribute to the contribution made by energy storage deployments before warming to his favorite theme: AI and autonomy.

[7]

He said: "We've made a lot of progress with Full Self-Driving in Q2. I would encourage anyone to understand the system better, to simply try it out and let the car drive you around."

And then there's the Robotaxi, the launch event of which was [8]abruptly postponed after Musk decided he wanted changes made. During the call, Elon said the launch had been moved to October 10.

[9]Tesla sales, market share dip in EU while other EV makers grow

[10]Tesla delays 'Robotaxi' event as Musk 'makes' design 'tweaks'

[11]How low can you go: Tesla's US market share dips below 50% for the first time

[12]Tesla parental controls keep teenage lead feet in check

In a rare moment of introspection, Musk admitted of unsupervised Full Self-Driving that "my predictions on this have been overly optimistic in the past." The Robotaxi depends on being able to navigate roads without human intervention, and Musk said he "would be shocked if we cannot do it next year."

The SpaceX supremo also noted the alleged impending arrival of Tesla's robot, Optimus, and said that the first version of the machine would conveniently be for Tesla consumption only – "doing useful things by the end of next year in the Tesla factories." In 2026, he expected to be able to sell version 2 of the device to consumers. We'd hate to suggest he just picked a year out of the air.

"I think the long term value of Optimus will exceed that of everything else at Tesla combined," he said. "I think everyone on Earth is going to want one. There's 8 billion people on earth, so it's 8 billion right there."

[13]

It's good to see Musk learning his lessons about being overly optimistic.

The Xitter owner also mentioned opportunities for integrating xAI's chatbot Grok into Tesla's software and said that shareholder approval would be needed before any investment was made.

He [14]posted a poll on X to "test the waters" on whether Tesla should invest $5 billion in xAI. At the time of writing, 68.8 percent of the 635,670 votes were in favor, and 31.2 percent were against. ®

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[1] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828024032662/tsla-20240630.htm

[2] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_software/aiml&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2ZqF5jLPVqG3SG6e-c6n1SAAAAIg&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0

[3] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_software/aiml&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44ZqF5jLPVqG3SG6e-c6n1SAAAAIg&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0

[4] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_software/aiml&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33ZqF5jLPVqG3SG6e-c6n1SAAAAIg&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0

[5] https://seekingalpha.com/article/4706025-tesla-inc-tsla-q2-2024-earnings-call-transcript

[6] https://www.theregister.com/2024/04/15/tesla_lays_off_10_percent/

[7] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_software/aiml&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44ZqF5jLPVqG3SG6e-c6n1SAAAAIg&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0

[8] https://www.theregister.com/2024/07/16/tesla_robotaxi_event_has_been/

[9] https://www.theregister.com/2024/07/18/tesla_sales_market_share_dip/

[10] https://www.theregister.com/2024/07/16/tesla_robotaxi_event_has_been/

[11] https://www.theregister.com/2024/07/10/tesla_electric_car_sales/

[12] https://www.theregister.com/2024/07/09/tesla_parental_controls/

[13] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_software/aiml&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33ZqF5jLPVqG3SG6e-c6n1SAAAAIg&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0

[14] https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1815907844434112999

[15] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/



Anonymous Coward

"everyone on Earth is going to want one"

anybody that doesn't want one will be fired into space on a rocket.

Dan 55

Last I heard [1]Optimus was a man in a spandex suit . Why wouldn't you want one?

[1] https://www.autoweek.com/news/technology/a37359183/tesla-robot-human-in-spandex/

Robotaxi "next year" since 2017

gecho

Everything that comes out of Musk's mouth is a shameless stock pump. I'm surprised he hasn't run afoul of the SEC again. Of course he's supporting Trump in the hope Trump will eliminate the SEC among other federal agencies in return. Oh and subsidize every Musk company with public government debt.

Energy generation?

MachDiamond

The financials from the previously reported quarter don't even break out solar panels which is all of the "generation" that Tesla has. Storage is taking cells they buy and sticking them in a box... just like Siemens, Bosch, BYD, LG and many other firms. If there's huge margin in that, it won't be long term as it will mean there's plenty of room to wiggle in a bidding war until the prices are down to the point where margins are reasonable.

Tesla is an automobile company based on where the vast majority of their revenue is derived. Every other auto manufacturer has other lines of business that earn a profit, but are overshadowed by sales of cars. There's nothing special about Tesla having business units doing other things.

Re: Energy generation?

David Newall

Not like BYD, who were a battery company before they started making cars.

Re: Energy generation?

MachDiamond

"Not like BYD, who were a battery company before they started making cars."

Yes, but. I'm not up on BYD financials, but I expect that auto sales are the greatest source of income for them now. While they might have started as a battery company, they've morphed and need to be evaluated based on the segment that brings in the most revenue. Even Tesla is buying batteries from BYD so it's a good business for BYD to be in.

Re: Energy generation?

herman

Tesla was also making batteries before making cars. The first Teslas were Lotus kit cars with electrics fitted.

Re: Energy generation?

bananape4l

hello, from powerwall all the way up to their big batteries for utilities, tesla accompanies the hardware with best-in-class software that bosch byd lg siemens and many other firms can't match.

what is vw's side-hustle?

Re: Energy generation?

Andy 73

Best in class software is not a defensive moat, it's something competitors can challenge and replace.

Baby you can drive my car

Bendacious

Looking forward to Musky's plan to allow every Tesla owner to hire their car out as a taxi when they are not using it. I'd love to get into my car in the morning and find it full of McDonald's wrappers and bodily fluids. Or even find it not on my driveway as it decided to change into a lane that wasn't really a lane and the car and paying passengers are now on fire several miles away. The income would have to be a lot more than 10% of a taxi fare to tempt me. Not that I'll ever own a Tesla, thanks to buying one being a tacit vote of approval for Phoney Stark's actions and statements.

Charlie Brown's Teacher

Anonymous Coward

Musk has nothing of relevance to say any more, it's all just hyperbolic bullshit designed to pump the stock price.

"my predictions on this have been overly optimistic in the past"

Pascal Monett

So, Musk, remind me : how many deaths has it took for you to acknowledge that ?

Everyone will want a humanoid robot

Kevin McMurtrie

But not likely the ones programmed by Elon Musk.

Re: Everyone will want a humanoid robot

MachDiamond

The prices being thrown around, likely too low, are more than the cost of a late model second hand car. When banks are giving away robots as a premium for opening a new account, I might be interested (as a source of parts for other projects).

Re: Everyone will want a humanoid robot

Anonymous Coward

oh no, it's M3GAN!

This is the part where you run :)

(In case of rogue robot, do not use elevator, use the stairs)

Does he know

Julian Poyntz

That a lot of auto companies have robots doing all these things already

A lot of companies usp is "hand made"

Then again perhaps the quality of their cars will improve, or will the reliability and build of Optimus be less prime and more inferior

Re: Does he know

Like a badger

In this context he knows nothing. Just the usual muskshit.

The idea that automotive production line automation can be usefully adapted to household chores is nonsense as most sane people will realise, and those of us who've ever worked in the automotive sector know for a fact. But since his intended audience is his own acolytes it matters not, they'll believe anything that squeezes past his sphincter-like lips.

In the robotics and assembly markets, there's some truly fabulous companies who've been doing this for years and really know their shit, presumably initially had some interest in Tesla as a prospective customer (and they don't think they're selling robotic housemaids any time this century). But as usual Musk thinks he can re-invent the wheel himself to universal acclaim, this time in robotics. Either that, or he was such a pain in the arse to work with that the industry leaders concluded that it wasn't trying to work with him and he had to come up with his own half baked robots.

Re: X-acolytes

Mage

How many that would be on Xitter or following Musk's account be negative or positive? Surely a poll by Musk on X is worthless?

automotive regulatory credits

Yet Another Anonymous coward

So he receives nearly $1Bn in brown envelopes eco-incentives from the government that he is actively trying to remove.

So he either expects the other lot to be more socialist when it comes to handing out brown envelopes eco-incentives. Or he is just so committed to the political ideals of small government and climate denial that he is prepared to pay $45M/month of his own money to strip his public company of $1Bn/year

Claims 'everyone on Earth is going to want one'

Stevie

Well the bloke who destroyed his Tesla along with large parts of the local infrastructure when he attempted traveling at Time Distort 7 outside my house will certainly be in the market for a new one.

Assuming a) He stays out of jail and 2) Can get insurance.

for Tesla consumption only – "doing useful things by the end of next year in the Tesla factories"

Howard Sway

What, like walking slowly round the factory handing out redundancy notices to staff?

Optimus optimism

Andy 73

It's not clear why anyone would by Optimus over one of the dozen or so other humanoid robots being developed (and in some cases, already being used in service).

Musk sold the idea of Tesla as being an unassailable disruptor to the industry. He's dropped the ball - as simple as that - and is reliant on tariffs to protect his company from competition.

Now he's trying to invent a whole new unassailable lead, having demonstrated that he can take a unique opportunity and loose it. This doesn't seem to be a good gamble.

If the only value (according to Musk) is autonomy and Optimus, then the message is clear. Anyone investing has to consider this a startup, not a company with any expectation they can deliver a new global scale business model.

Shocked!

Fruit and Nutcase

Musk said he "would be shocked if we cannot do it next year."

Does that mean we can charge up a Taser and shock him if they don't don't manage FSD next year

TheMaskedMan

"The Xitter owner also mentioned opportunities for integrating xAI's chatbot Grok into Tesla's software and said that shareholder approval would be needed before any investment was made."

Am I reading this right? They want to put a chatbot in the car? What the hell for?

I imagine it would be rather like having a constant back seat driver making"helpful" suggestions. His Muskiness watched too much knight rider as a kid, methinks.

doublelayer

I can answer that one. You absolutely need an LLM running in a car when the company that makes the LLM will supply it for $5 billion in up-front "investment", will charge per use, and you own that company. Free money is wonderful. You just add it onto the price of each car, and when people don't buy as many of them, you make some other promise of what other wonderful feature they'll have and wait for people to bid up the stock again. Eventually, this won't work in the long term, but you'll have extracted plenty of actual money in the meantime.

WTAF?

heyrick

" I think everyone on Earth is going to want one. "

Dude can't even make a car that can drive itself, yet we're supposed to trust our robot overlords that they can turn out a half functioning bot? And humanoid shape to boot. Oh my.

If I was going to have a bot, I'd like it to resemble that cute Asian woman in Humans , but I would absolutely settle for a Tachikoma . The Optimus just looks about as fugly as most of the other Tesla fare.

Plus, wasn't Will Smith in a movie about where this scenario ends up?

" There's 8 billion people on earth, so it's 8 billion right there. "

Hey, Musk, quite an upsetting number of those people are living surviving in conditions and poverty that you would be utterly incapable of comprehending you fucking piece of shit.

Re: WTAF?

Excused Boots

".......that you would be utterly incapable of comprehending you fucking piece of shit.”

Harsh; but true!

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