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  ARM Give a man a fire and he's warm for a day, but set fire to him and he's warm for the rest of his life (Terry Pratchett, Jingo)

SpaceX's Falcon anomaly could have serious implications for the space industry

(2024/07/15)


SpaceX has confirmed the payload of last week's Starlink launch is pretty much a total writeoff. However, standing down Falcon 9 as authorities look into the incident could have major implications for the space industry.

The July 11 (local time) launch from Space Launch Complex 4E at Vandenberg Space Force Base was the latest in an increasingly rapid cadence of launches by SpaceX. It was carrying 20 Starlink satellites. The first stage of the Falcon 9 behaved nominally, and again performed the impressive feat of landing on a droneship, making it SpaceX's 329th recovery of an orbital class rocket to date.

Things did not go so well for the upper stage. [1]According to SpaceX, the second stage developed a liquid oxygen leak – which was clearly visible during the broadcasted stream of the launch – and when the Merlin Vacuum engine was relit to raise the perigee of its orbit, in the words of SpaceX, it "experienced an anomaly."

[2]

SpaceX boss Elon Musk was [3]blunter and said the restart "resulted in an engine RUD." While we like a three-letter-acronym as much as the next person, it's safe to say that something probably went bang.

[4]

[5]

Musk hoped that some of the satellites could be saved, but SpaceX warned over the weekend, "the satellites will re-enter Earth's atmosphere and fully demise." With a very low perigee of 135 km, the onboard thrusters simply cannot raise the orbit before atmospheric drag pulls the Starlinks back down.

SpaceX noted that the upper stage survived the engine incident and "passivated" itself as it would normally. Passivation means taking steps to prevent explosions as it approaches Earth, such as [6]depleting itself of pressure , etc [PDF].

[7]

After bragging about the reliability of the Falcon 9 – a fair boast, as the company has managed 364 successful Falcon launches – SpaceX said it will "perform a full investigation in coordination with the FAA, determine root cause, and make corrective actions to ensure the success of future missions."

It went on to say it was "positioned to rapidly recover."

As well it might. Much of the space industry has come to depend on SpaceX in recent years. Russian launchers are off limits following the invasion of Ukraine and the US has little in the way of alternative launch capability. United Launch Alliance (ULA) finally managed to get its Vulcan Centaur off the pad [8]earlier this year , but is unlikely to reach SpaceX's Falcon 9 cadence in the near future. Other rockets planned for launch from US soil include Blue Origin's New Glenn and Rocket Lab's Neutron, but neither have made their maiden flight.

[9]Starliner to remain docked to the ISS into July – with no new departure date

[10]SpaceX hit by inflight Falcon 9 failure

[11]Twitter grew an incredible '1.6%' since Musk's $44B takeover. Amazing. Wow

[12]Trouble in space as Boeing's not going, and China's back from the Moon

The Falcon 9 is also used for crewed missions. The next was to have been the Polaris Dawn mission, which is now delayed until SpaceX is ready to resume launches. Jared Isaacman, CEO of Shift4 Payments, is the mission commander and [13]said of SpaceX and the anomaly: "I have no doubt they will arrive at a cause quickly and ensure the most cost-effective and reliable launch vehicle keeps delivering payload to orbit.

"As for Polaris Dawn, we will fly whenever SpaceX is ready and with complete confidence in the rocket, spaceship and operations."

[14]

Musk [15]thanked Isaacman and noted Falcon was tracking to do more launches this year than the Space Shuttle managed in 30. The vast majority of Falcon's missions are uncrewed.

The challenge now facing SpaceX is proving that last week's incident was an isolated one and not a design or quality control issue showing up as the company ramps up its launch cadence. ®

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[1] https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=sl-9-3

[2] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2ZpVHmZkH@veyFgedFP8hgwAAAMU&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0

[3] https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1811620381590966321

[4] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44ZpVHmZkH@veyFgedFP8hgwAAAMU&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0

[5] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33ZpVHmZkH@veyFgedFP8hgwAAAMU&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0

[6] https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20230014779/downloads/20230014779.pdf

[7] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44ZpVHmZkH@veyFgedFP8hgwAAAMU&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0

[8] https://www.theregister.com/2024/01/08/vulcan_centaur_launch/

[9] https://www.theregister.com/2024/06/24/starliner_to_remain_docked_to/

[10] https://www.theregister.com/2024/07/12/spacex_suffers_an_inflight_falcon/

[11] https://www.theregister.com/2024/07/09/x_user_base_twitter/

[12] https://www.theregister.com/2024/07/02/kettle_iss_boeing/

[13] https://x.com/rookisaacman/status/1811786433482706978

[14] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33ZpVHmZkH@veyFgedFP8hgwAAAMU&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0

[15] https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1811788709345509377

[16] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/



FAA?

Yet Another Anonymous coward

Haven't we just decided that regulatory agencies no longer have any say in the USA ?

Re: FAA?

Dimmer

We do still need regulations so everyone plays nice.

Congress just can’t make vague laws that they can blame someone else if there is blowback. (Management 101)

Re: FAA?

Like a badger

The recent judgement wasn't that regulators had no say, but that they could not interpret the law they enforce. Because of decades of poor drafting of legislation, there's lots of areas where a regulator might find there to be little clarity - hitherto they'd use their judgement, and the courts would generally back them. The recent judgement basically sets a precedent that only the legislature makes laws, and the interpretation of laws sits with the courts, not regulators.

Congress always have and always will make vague laws, but in future they'll have nobody but the courts to blame for any blowback. As one consequence, the courts will be clogged up with all the shitbag corporations of America (most of them) trying to minimise regulatory oversight.

It's also interesting to think how all of this would have played (and may yet) if the FAA and NTSB have to operate to the written word of legislation - how much do politicians and policy officers know about technology, aviations, or indeed any real world matter? And if the law is written without any understanding of the matters it applies to, without proper professional interpretation, what then?

It is worth noting that whilst the Texas court concerned is unsurprisingly anti-regulators, the key thing here is that the Supreme Court (stuffed with his lackeys by TOJ in his last presidency) have upheld it, and that's why it is a big deal. There would seem to be no reason to expect the situation to be changed, but this judgement is going to be bad for certain stakeholders and good for others. The people it is good for are investors, corporations, and howling MAGA types. For citizens at large, the environment, healthcare, food, public safety it could well turn out to be a disaster.

Re: FAA?

Doctor Syntax

Always remembering that a lot of those citizens are also included in the investors, whether they realise it or not.

Re: FAA?

Dave 126

Er, the FAA were mentioned in the article... What's your point? SpaceX have no motivation to take shortcuts with their investigation into the root cause of this anomaly.

The rapidly with which SpaceX have chased down issues in the past isn't because they've taken shortcuts, but because so much of their manufacturing is in house - they're not chasing up lots of subcontractors across the country.

Re: FAA?

Anonymous Coward

"Er, the FAA were mentioned in the article... What's your point? SpaceX have no motivation to take shortcuts with their investigation into the root cause of this anomaly."

You could equally argue that Boeing would have no motivation to take shortcuts with investigations.

Starliner rescue?

Peter Gathercole

Up until now, it's always been assumed that SpaceX could launch a Crew Dragon to bring the two astronauts apparently stuck on the ISS back to Earth.

This may have to make NASA think again about this, at least until Falcon 9 is flying again.

Re: Starliner rescue?

Dave 126

Crew Dragon does require Falcon 9 to fly again... Maybe you meant until Falcon 9 flies a few unmanned missions first?

In any case, Crew Dragon doesn't require a crew to be launched and rendezvous with the ISS.

Sending an uncrewed Dragon would get the Starliner crew home, but wouldn't help in relieving other ISS crew who are due a rotation.

First in-flight mission failure for nine years

jonsg

SpaceX is, of course, looking deeply into what went wrong. But let's not forget that this is their first in-flight mission failure since 2015, on mission #19. This was mission #354. In the history of spaceflight, that's an unheard-of reliability rate for a launch platform.

It's also worth noting that, unlike the lower-stage booster*, the upper stage is not reused: a new one is built for every mission, so every flight is a shakedown flight. Rather like the SLS, in fact.

Clearly there was either a manufacturing error for this upper stage, or it was damaged during stacking, or there was a materials fault. Whichever it is, the authorities and SpaceX are absolutely correct to be going into analysis to determine the cause, and set it right. That's standard aerospace practice.

Would I happily fly in a Dragon capsule on a Falcon 9 launch platform? Definitely. Don't forget: the payloads were undamaged and were deployed; it's just the rocket motor that blew up.

Would I fly atop a Falcon Heavy? No. Not enough launches to establish a safety pattern yet.

In a Starship? No way on Earth! At least not until they've proven it as reliable as F9 is now.

No, I'm not a SpaceX simp. I'm a former satellite engineer who's been impressed by their reliability.

(* In fairness, some boosters are contractually single-use. Personally, I'd prefer to use one that's got flight heritage, but I'm not writing cheques on Government accounts.)

Re: First in-flight mission failure for nine years

Dave 126

Also, this anomaly would not have prevented a successful Dragon mission to the ISS, since the second stage engine isn't relit on an ISS mission.

Tom7

Surely it would be better to track this down to a design fault or a quality control issue, either of which could be rectified?

Better than if they just shrug their shoulders and said, "Oh well, it was an isolated anomaly, let's try another one..."

Dave 126

Nobody is expecting SpaceX to shrug their shoulders on this. Remember that the cargo they lost was theirs, just as will be the case for their future Starlink missions, and their reputation for reliability is a commercial asset when they sell their launch services to others. It is absolutely in their interests to find the root cause and fix it, just as it has always been.

It's an interesting question - to an engineer - as to how to find faults in a piece of hardware that can't be examined hands-on. Obviously there is telemetry that might offer clues. And some companies use high resolution cameras to record the assembly at every stage of the production process - I don't know if SpaceX uses such a system.

"Speak, thou vast and venerable head," muttered Ahab, "which, though
ungarnished with a beard, yet here and there lookest hoary with mosses; speak,
mighty head, and tell us the secret thing that is in thee. Of all divers,
thou has dived the deepest. That head upon which the upper sun now gleams has
moved amid the world's foundations. Where unrecorded names and navies rust,
and untold hopes and anchors rot; where in her murderous hold this frigate
earth is ballasted with bones of millions of the drowned; there, in that awful
water-land, there was thy most familiar home. Thou hast been where bell or
diver never went; has slept by many a sailer's side, where sleepless mothers
would give their lives to lay them down. Thou saw'st the locked lovers when
leaping from their flaming ship; heart to heart they sank beneath the exulting
wave; true to each other, when heaven seemed false to them. Thou saw'st the
murdered mate when tossed by pirates from the midnight deck; for hours he fell
into the deeper midnight of the insatiate maw; and his murderers still sailed
on unharmed -- while swift lightnings shivered the neighboring ship that would
have borne a righteous husband to outstretched, longing arms. O head! thou has
seen enough to split the planets and make an infidel of Abraham, and not one
syllable is thine!"
-- H. Melville, "Moby Dick"