Who is, of course, a paragon of truthfulness and virtue and could never tell a lie. Of course he's going to deny. They denied Tchernobyl until the rest of world was red in the face before mumbling that there might have been an issue.

It's come to a point where Putin's Russia could actually admit something and everyone else would be like "whoa, what angle are they playing now ?".

>It's come to a point where Putin's Russia could actually admit something and everyone else would be like "whoa, what angle are they playing now ?".

Indeed. Which is what The Kremlin wants.

At what point does faffing with electronic space over another's territory constitute a crime (and how do you hold to account)? I mean, the GPS jamming targetting Poland and the Baltic States (almost certainly from Kaliningrad) is a daily occurrence. And I've seen attacks on devices using GPS for timing purposes that have necessitated a rethink of timing strategies also.

A perhaps more pertinent question is what the hell does Russia get by being the bad boy? Does being an international pariah serve to shore up control? Oligarchs bank accounts?

Or what?

It's depressing, but I've come to accept that we're in the first stage of war. Adversaries of freedom are attacking their neighbours, the leaders of freedom are trying to appease but are being dragged into overt action, which will escalate into full blown hostility.

Yes, I'm looking at you, Russia, but also North Korea, Palestine and Israel, and a slightly circumspect China who is eyeing Taiwan and a lot of the rest of SE Asia. Germany and USA are lurching to the right, NATO may fracture, a criminal will probably sit in the Whitehouse, and I despair at where it ends.

Nowhere good.

Snowball risk.

The individual threats posted by Iran, North Korea, China/Taiwan (and others) can be considered manageable threats in isolation. However, if multiple were to go off together... At a time where armouries are already grossly depleted. Even with all of the forces at NATO disposal, that is an extremely challenging ask.

Every extra conflict on fire plays into planners thinking in exactly the same way. Japan's leaders thought Dec 1941 was the time to move, for fear of never being able to move at all. (After all, it was looking like the Soviets would fall - even with the stall outside Moscow).

A general war IS looming if we do not gear up adequate conventional deterrence.

On this Macaronesian rock, it's becoming increasingly common to hear this as a contributory factor to people's seeking residence.

Not sure how much it would improve their post-apocalyptic survival chances, but fear is already starting to influence behaviour.

Putin feels he needs to make history before he dies, and that history will largely consist of lots of Russian people dying (which is part of the Russian presidential tradition).

Any such war will be very short-lived, no matter the outcome. Russia doesn't have the resources to take on a part of its former self, let alone the West.

It's been clear for a long time that all Russia really has is rhetoric. China are far more a threat but I can't see them actually stepping in and doing anything if it all kicks off, though I wouldn't put it past them to land-grab some prime Russian land if it's up for grabs when the dust settles, which could either help satisfy their desire for more space, or inflame them.

The Middle East - always been that way, never changed. It's news only when the Middle East isn't at war with itself.

North Korea isn't even on the map. They are no threat to anyone and if they choose the wrong side and decide to fight it would only end in some kind of liberation, to be honest. Again, they'd probably like to sneak over a border or two to the NE and get some prime Russian land if it's going begging.

To be honest, Russia is all hot air, and no different to normal, the Middle East is the Middle East and no different to normal, and unlike the Gulf War, the "war of terror", etc. there's not actually much happening *globally* at all at the moment. The West are mostly sitting back and staying out of it because there's nothing really worth getting involved in (and I feel sorry for Ukraine, but that's how it's perceived by the West, not that I agree with that).

I'm not at all sure Putin is as dumb as his own threats, his bark is worse than his bite or he'd have done more a long time ago. He doesn't have the resources to fight a war. He doesn't even have the generals, that's why the most feared battallions are basically mercenaries (who have actively spoke out against him).

China/Russia is certainly not beyond the wit of possibilities, despite current rhetoric. Far eastern Russia is heavy immigrated by Chinese workers and it really wouldn't take much for it to spill over into a land grab. The other "stans" are also very likely target lists for Russia. A big driver for Ukraine was perceived competition for Russian gas supplies. Those "stans" ARE already competition for Russgaz, and as such, have hit me written all over them. Russia might not directly challenge NATO but it can certainly challenge former Soviet satellites that are not nearly as well equipped as Ukraine - or anywhere near as re-inforcable.

I would not underestimate NK. Despite obsolescence, they have numbers, motivation, and favourable terrain that does a lot to negate technological advantages. Western experiences in the jungles of Korea and Vietnam are a wholly different business to European or Desert war where numbers and short engagement ranges trump most technology.