Will Windows drive a PC refresh? Everyone's talking about AI
- Reference: 1716901208
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2024/05/28/windows_to_drive_pc_refresh/
- Source link:
In a [1]report titled "AI PCs to usher in the next leg of PC market growth," the investment bank and financial services biz says it thinks businesses will "be the initial adopters of AI PCs given they are primarily being marketed as productivity tools."
Giving Windows total recall of everything a user does is a privacy minefield [2]READ MORE
Around three-quarters of chief information officers are already in the process of reviewing the tech or are planning to do so, Morgan Stanley says. This will reduce the percentage of AI workloads being sent to the cloud with more processing done at a local level.
AI PCs, the report reckons, are estimated to "deliver a lower cost per query, lower latency, unlimited personalization, better availability and greater privacy and security." They'll also come with a $1,000+ price tag.
At its developer event a week ago, Microsoft [3]promoted its AI PC plans by using Qualcomm's Snapdragon X Elite and X Plus system-on-chips in the next generation Surface Laptop and Pro tablets, which are just two of 20 Copilot+ PCs Qualcomm has to launch.
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All this comes against a backdrop of slowing PC shipments since the height of the pandemic: the industry shipped 259.5 million units in 2023, versus 341 million in 2021. The [5]end of life of Windows 10 in October next year is expected to provide some uplift, but it seemingly isn't the driver it used to be, and so vendors are searching for something else to provide the fuel.
[6]
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According to Morgan Stanley, AI PCs are estimated to comprise two percent market share for 2024, rise to 16 percent next year, have 28 percent of the pie the year after, go up to 48 percent in 2027, and increase to make up 64 percent of the market at the end of the forecast period in 2028.
Microsoft said in March it is still [8]trying to convince customers of the productivity benefits of Copilot , and is running proofs of concept, but [9]not all CIOs or analysts are convinced .
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Elizabeth Hackenson, CIO at Schneider Electric, said AI PCS were "rather costly," and Jay Ferro, CIO at Clario, a clinical research data management business, said he was adopting a wait and see attitude to hold out for "more mature options, avoidance of early adopter costs, greater choice, and more solid case studies."
Similarly, analysts think the time is not yet right for AI PCs. Ranjit Atwal, Gartner research director, told us previously: "If PC vendors insist on charging a premium for AI PCs without demonstrable benefits, then business will buy no-AI PCs or those with lower specs." Forrester said there was still "no killer app" for the average information worker, despite 50 AI PCs being on the market.
"Forrester expects certain roles with high computing needs, such as creatives, data scientists, and developers, to benefit substantially from AI PCs. For most information workers, however, there simply aren't enough game-changing applications for day-to-day work to drive rapid AI PC adoption," it [11]said last month.
[12]Flexing financial muscles, Arm aims to elbow into Windows PC market
[13]AI PCs are here but a killer application for biz users? Nope
[14]Why Microsoft's Copilot will only kinda run locally on AI PCs for now
[15]Microsoft's first AI PCs Surface with Intel cores and a Copilot key
[16]Can AI shorten PC replacement cycles? Dell seems to think so
[17]How to run an LLM on your PC, not in the cloud, in less than 10 minutes
That said, [18]Canalys polled CIOs and found around a third of those quizzed warned they may delay PC purchasing decisions to see if advancements in AI tech are sufficient to influence their refresh process.
The word AI was mentioned excessively on Lenovo's Q4 earnings call last week. CEO Yuanqing Yang told financial analysts: "AI PC is about to kickstart a new demand cycle for products with premium pricing and attractive features for commercial users.
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"We expect that in the next three years AI PCs will gradually grow from premium to a mainstream segment," he added.
"We are also gradually expanding from AI PC to AI phone and AI tablet, while building seamless collaboration among devices."
Lenovo booked a 10 percent increase in revenue to $13.8 billion for its [20]Q4 ended March 2024 [PDF]. Net profit doubled to $248 million. ®
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[1] https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/ai-pcs-forecast-to-comprise-65-of-market-by-2028-morgan-stanley/ar-BB1n2OXY
[2] https://www.theregister.com/2024/05/22/windows_recall/
[3] https://www.theregister.com/2024/05/21/qualcomm_windows_microsoft/
[4] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_software/aiml&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2ZlX-oyCb46g3C5QIpmD2ogAAAMY&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[5] https://www.theregister.com/2023/12/06/microsoft_windows_10_security/
[6] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_software/aiml&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44ZlX-oyCb46g3C5QIpmD2ogAAAMY&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[7] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_software/aiml&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33ZlX-oyCb46g3C5QIpmD2ogAAAMY&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[8] https://www.theregister.com/2024/03/18/microsoft_copilot_moneymaker/
[9] https://www.theregister.com/2024/04/23/cios_biz_buyers_on_ai_pcs/
[10] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_software/aiml&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44ZlX-oyCb46g3C5QIpmD2ogAAAMY&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[11] https://www.theregister.com/2024/04/23/cios_biz_buyers_on_ai_pcs/
[12] https://www.theregister.com/2024/05/09/arm_q4_2024/
[13] https://www.theregister.com/2024/04/18/analysts_2024_ai_pcs/
[14] https://www.theregister.com/2024/03/31/microsoft_copilot_hardware/
[15] https://www.theregister.com/2024/03/21/microsoft_ai_surface/
[16] https://www.theregister.com/2024/03/13/dell_exec_reckons_aipowered_laptops/
[17] https://www.theregister.com/2024/03/17/ai_pc_local_llm/
[18] https://www.theregister.com/2024/04/09/pc_shipments_canalys_idc/
[19] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_software/aiml&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33ZlX-oyCb46g3C5QIpmD2ogAAAMY&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[20] https://investor.lenovo.com/en/financial/results/press_2324_q4.pdf
[21] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
Also remember Internet Of Things?
I do, yes ...
That was where we connected things that had no business being on the internet to the internet, when we can't even keep things that make sense to have on the internet properly secure.
Re: IoT
But that's a problem with the entire concept and driving force of IPv6, that everyone would want everything directly accessible on the internet. Sounds so idealistic yet they forgot that people act selfishly and therefore we need actual security implemented in that "smart device", which is expensive when multiplied out by the number of devices.
Even closer: xpert systems?
There's plenty of digital roadkill.
Knowledge-based systems,
Constraints-based programmin
Statistical programming
Neural networks…
A lot of the stuff being grouped under the “AI” umbrella has been around for a long time.
Given the AI coprocessor is basically a matrix maths coprocessor, it would be interesting to know where this will enhance “typical” programs in the way the inclusion of the maths coprocessor did. Ie. Will Excel suddenly get massively faster as all those spreadsheet formula can now be dropped on the AI coprocessor and be performed in parallel?
> Will Excel suddenly get massively faster as all those spreadsheet formula can now be dropped on the AI coprocessor and be performed in parallel?
Not unless someone codes Excel's computation engine to run in parallel on a GPU(-like chip). That's going to be hard , will require significant software engineering resources, and ain't going to happen overnight. Perhaps there's already significant effort underway, but who knows?
As a valid comparison, I am a long-time user of [1]MATLAB (an industrial-strength matrix maths suite). Mathworks have been gradually GPU-enabling core MATLAB functionality (via [2]CUDA ) over perhaps the last 10 years. These are people who know there stuff and have the resources - and they're not there yet.
[1] https://uk.mathworks.com/products/matlab-home.html
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CUDA
Right at the beginning I predicted that 3D TVs would go the same way as other useless crap that we don't need, like the fondue set.
I predict AI will have *some* use (by 2030) and might slightly improve our lives by automating some of the boring tasks. As for people wanting a PC refresh to get that incremental feature... Nope. It's not going to be a game changer, and it's not going to live up to the hype. Although I also predict there will be a LOT more column inches dedicated to it, and a LOT of comments (like this one) where people just have to bite, before the bubble bursts. And burst it will.
.... and then out of the ashes of that bubble, if you'll pardon mixing of metaphors, will come some truly useful AI. But that's decades away.
out of the ashes of that bubble, if you'll pardon mixing of metaphors, will come some truly useful AI
Teledildonics.
I do have a 3D TV, and beyond being a "3D" TV, it's also and above all a nice TV with a high refresh rate. (And dumb!...)
I'm not sure an "AI PC" will be a nice PC. I'm pretty sure it will be a shitty PC with a clumsy feature to extract more "telemetry" and inject more ads. I have no need for either, I'm strange that way.
The end of the PC
Seems to me that the "PC" as such is not what windows are aimed at. The AI PC is a device for a corporate environment or for people working from home in need of high powered computing. The "Home PC" - used for various more domestic purposes - is dieing at the hands of tablets and smartphones. Old fogies like me who want a good sized screen and a propter keyboard to run the apps we chose the way we want will moving to linux as the effort to tame the beast of Redmont becomes more effort than it is worth.
Re: The end of the PC
> The AI PC is a device for a corporate environment or for people working from home in need of high powered computing.
Come on!... Seriously? "People working from home in need of high powered computing" will never ever buy an "AI" PC to waste part of their computing capacity on an oversized Clippy and a constant flood of "exciting opportunities". Because that's what marketing means by "AI".
I'm one of those people who make long calculations, the kind taking half an hour apiece with the CPU at 100% on a high-end PC. I definitely don't want those calculations to take twice that time because Super Clippy™ has decided to send back telemetry or is trying to shower me with inane suggestions.
/rant
Re: The end of the PC
An AI will save you half an hour by delivering the answer much faster. It will be the wrong answer, but it will be much faster and often plausible.
Re: The end of the PC
> It will be the wrong answer, but it will be much faster and often plausible.
LOL, no, I really meant "calculate" (maths), which means Super Clippy™ wouldn't even understand the question...
I agree it will give an answer, but it would probably be something like Q:"Calculate this formula, for those values", A:"It's teal! Definitely teal! 2% off at our partner's store right now!"
I assume Morgan Stanley expect to make money from either lending to buyers in a PC refresh, dividends from vendors or both.
Yup, both. That'll be it.
To answer the question
Will Windows drive a PC refresh ?
Yes it will. As a subscription service.
The basic subscription records and forwards everything happening in the surroundings of the PC, all traffic on your home WiFi and Internet connection, everything related to your IoT, and the PC will be used for AI generation purposes on behalf of Microsoft. And you still have to pay for the electricity it uses.
yet more to uninstall...
With every windows update I have to spend an increasing amount of time uninstalling and disabling a boat load of crapware I neither asked for or want (the latest being copilot, along with popups on my login screen... ugh!). An operating system should be an operating system, not an application level system. I increasing feel it's not my computer, but microsofts... unless I install linux... which I now do far more often.
Microsoft of course could release an "operating system"... now that would be novel...
but in the end I guess I am nothing more than a resource to be exploited for profit.
Re: yet more to uninstall...
> I am nothing more than a resource to be exploited for profit.
First step towards wisdom.
Strangely enough, Microsoft (other big companies available) don't have your well-being or happiness in mind! Surprisingly, they only care about their bottom line.
Re: yet more to uninstall...
> With every windows update I have to spend an increasing amount of time uninstalling and disabling a boat load of crapware
The last forced update on this windows desktop disabled the mouse and nothing showing in device manager. After four hour restore, it went straight into another forced update. Finally, after wasting most of the day I managed to regain control of my desktop. Except mouse right-clicks are missed or open as left-clicks or the windows under the current windows is activated. The last forced update before that moved the display to the right and down so as the Taskbar was off the screen.
I can see absolutely no reason that I would want an AI PC. My brain is perfectly adequate for my work tasks and anything else that I want to do on a computer.
Never mind that AI is power hungry and will put up my electricity bill. When I'm working (report writing) a low power net-top is perfectly adequate for my needs, and indeed that's what I normally use running Linux Mint.
Having just spent a *happy* couple of hours removing crapware from SWMBO's Win 11 machine I have no doubt the M$ will use Windoze AI machines to syphon off large quantities of data back to Redmond - without any explicit permission to do so. Additionally, AI will probably (almost certainly) be used to drive "targetted advertising" which can only get worse with each Win iteration as M$ monetize Win to the max.
Once my final M$ wedded customers have disappeared off into history (about another 2 years) I won't have any need to run Win, and I certainly won't be upgrading my Win 10 machines to any future version and indeed I'm looking forward to the day when M$ stops issuing Win 10 updates.
If I actually had a reason to use AI I suspect those reasons would require processing power which would steer me towards using some form of AI as a service type product.
As other have described it AI on the PC seems to mean a corporation's AI data mining my PC for their purposes. As a kickback it'll organise my photos or soemthing (while uploading them for more mining and or direct sales).
At the moment I only really see two forms of AI - the insidious which is a beancounters wet dream allowing for massive layoffs and company downsizing, srevices and products getting shittier is factored in.
And the dull but useful - monitoring and predicting wear, erosion and failure in infrastructure and industrial settings
Neither of which really requires anything on a local machine
"vendors are searching for something else"
Of course they are. PC hardware has hit a wall - it does its job fine now for basic tasks, and only the rare people who need to do more than check their mail, type a letter or two and watch YouTube are going to want more power.
Those who want more power are not going to appreciate that power being gobbled up by some artificial stupidity that only serves to rape their private lives even further.
But what vendors see is that the pixel/MHz/CPU cores/DRAM speed/etc are all arguments that the public doesn't give a shit about any more. We have enough power for our daily lives.
So the magical pixie dust is now called AI, and it has to be spread over everything .
Let's not mention that Cortana has actually been abandoned by Redmond . . . it would spoil the dream.
Anyone remember 3D TVs? Segways,?