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  ARM Give a man a fire and he's warm for a day, but set fire to him and he's warm for the rest of his life (Terry Pratchett, Jingo)

Tesla misses the mark on all fronts in quarter of chaos

(2024/04/24)


In a dynamic first quarter, Elon Musk's Tesla contended with a terrorist organization, survived an arson attempt, and fiercely competed with hybrid car makers, all against a backdrop of falling prices as competition for electric vehicle customers intensified.

As expected, it wasn't a good three months for Tesla. Sales fell 9 percent year-on-year to [1]$21.3 billion and net profit plunged 55 percent to $1.1 billion as the sector feels the squeeze from China-based manufacturers and an uncertain economy.

Production numbers dropped to [2]433,371 units versus [3]440,808 a year earlier , and [4]494,989 in the prior quarter . Deliveries for the first three months of 2024 were 386,810 compared to 422,875 12 months ago and 484,507 in Q4 2023.

[5]

"Decline in volumes was partially due to the early phase of the production ramp of the updated Model 3 at our Fremont factory and factory shutdowns resulting from shipping diversions caused by the [6]Red Sea conflict and an [7]arson attack at Gigafactory Berlin ," said Tesla.

[8]

[9]

To counter the slowdown in sales and reduced profits, Tesla last week confirmed it was [10]cutting 10 percent of the workforce , including expunging 2,700 roles in Austin, Texas, and upwards of 3,300 positions in Fremont, California. The cost of producing vehicles in Austin, Berlin, and Fremont are "very close," the company said. These are things Tesla can control.

On an earnings call with financial analysts, Musk said the "EV adoption rate globally is under pressure and a lot of other order manufacturers are pulling back on EVs and pursuing plug-in hybrids instead. We believe this is not the right strategy and electric vehicles will ultimately dominate the market."

[11]

Tesla began cutting prices to compete in 2022 and has continued this strategy ever since, most recently [12]lopping a third off the upfront cost of Full Self-Driving software and reducing the price of some cars. It is locked in a race with Chinese manufacturer BYD.

As revealed earlier today, the International Energy Association said adoption of EVs in China is higher than in the West due to local prices being lower than traditional combustion engine cars. With this in mind, perhaps, Musk talked of rolling out "more affordable models" from existing production lines, most likely in early 2025.

[13]Tesla Cybertruck turns into world's most expensive brick after car wash

[14]Tesla asks shareholders to reinstate Musk's voided $56B pay package

[15]Canadian arrested for 'stealing secret' to speedy Tesla battery production

[16]Tesla's Cybertruck may not be so stainless after all

Musk again talked up Full Self-Driving, now on version 12, telling analysts that if they still haven't tried one, they must. "It's profound and the rate of improvement is rapid."

"We've now turned that on for all cars with the cameras and inference computer, everything from Hardware 3 on in North America. So, it's been pushed out to, I think, around 1.8 million vehicles, and we're seeing about half of people use it so far and that percentage is increasing with each passing week.

"Gasoline cars that are not autonomous will be like riding a horse and using a flip phone. And that will become very obvious in hindsight."

[17]

In another forward-looking moment – who wants to discuss a crappy Q1? – the billionaire steered his audience to Tesla's "purpose-built robotaxi or cybercab" which will be "showcased in August."

One more thing that handily grabbed analyst attention during the call was the status of Tesla's [18]humanoid robot Optimus .

"We are able to do simple factory tasks or at least, I should say, factory tasks in the lab. We do think we will have Optimus in limited production in the natural factory itself, doing useful tasks before the end of this year. And then I think we may be able to sell it externally by the end of next year. These are just guesses.

"As I've said before, I think Optimus will be more valuable than everything else combined. Because if you've got a sentient humanoid robot that is able to navigate reality and do tasks at request, there is no meaningful limit to the size of the economy. So, that's what's going to happen. And I think Tesla is best positioned of any humanoid robot maker to be able to reach volume production with efficient inference on the robot itself.

"I mean, this, perhaps, is a point that is worth emphasizing. Tesla's AI inference efficiency is vastly better than any other company. There's no company even close to the inference efficiency of Tesla. We've had to do that because we were constrained by the inference hardware in the car. We didn't have a choice."

Wall Street seemed to forget about the Q1 results and was more interested in the forward-looking stuff Musk says Tesla is working on. As such, the company share price went up 12 percent after the numbers were filed. ®

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[1] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828024017503/tsla-20240331.htm#i82dc7df7ab4d460898fcbe284ea03d63_73

[2] https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-first-quarter-2024

[3] https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-first-quarter-2023

[4] https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-fourth-quarter-2023

[5] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/personaltech&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2ZiksnfEvKKVVUBRiiCYuqAAAAFc&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0

[6] https://www.theregister.com/2024/01/24/logitech_warns_of_logistical_impact/

[7] https://www.theregister.com/2024/03/05/tesla_berlin_arson_attack/

[8] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/personaltech&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44ZiksnfEvKKVVUBRiiCYuqAAAAFc&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0

[9] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/personaltech&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33ZiksnfEvKKVVUBRiiCYuqAAAAFc&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0

[10] https://www.theregister.com/2024/04/15/tesla_lays_off_10_percent/

[11] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/personaltech&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44ZiksnfEvKKVVUBRiiCYuqAAAAFc&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0

[12] https://www.theregister.com/2024/04/22/tesla_cuts_prices/

[13] https://www.theregister.com/2024/04/20/cybertruck_car_wash_mode/

[14] https://www.theregister.com/2024/04/17/tesla_reinstate_musk_pay/

[15] https://www.theregister.com/2024/03/20/tesla_complaint/

[16] https://www.theregister.com/2024/02/13/tesla_cybertruck_rust/

[17] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/personaltech&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33ZiksnfEvKKVVUBRiiCYuqAAAAFc&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0

[18] https://www.theregister.com/2022/10/03/tesla_optimus_prototype/

[19] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/



Gordon 10

Wall Street is weird. They love job cuts, and with a bit of flim flam about bring forward the cheap model and they give Musk an easy ride.

The guy who wants a 56Bn payout as profits drop, a price war looms and competition ramps up.

WTAF?

> WTAF?

cyberdemon

Don't worry, the shares will plummet as soon as Wall Street have sorted out their short positions..

StrangerHereMyself

Musk knows how to play Wall Street: he makes some noises about a cheaper car and the stock holds steady, when it should be tanking.

No doubt Tesla employees are in a bind because they'll have to deliver a brand new car early next year. Musk makes promises and they'll have to deliver!

DJO

Musk makes promises and they'll have to deliver!

No, they don't, Musk NEVER delivers on his promises.

People on Mars by 2022 - Failed

Tesla full self driving - Failed

Hyperloop - Massive Fail.

Boring Company - Bankrupt

Cybertruck - Pile of crap

Tesla Semi - Completely useless

And so on.

Charlie Clark

You need to know who was buying and how much.

If numbers are above some expectations, an option to buy might be exercised. It could also be some gullible fanboys wanting to help their hero by buying some shares; even if they only buy one the valuation of the whole company will reflected in that transaction. Or someone who had been shorting the stock hit their numbers and got out.

Two different economists got Nobel Prizes for pointing out how erratic and asymmetric markets are, with information unevenly and unequally distributed; but that they eventually get things right.

mmm,

Anonymous Coward

I refer to his past proclamations

when I say his lips were moving therefore I don't believe musktwat further than his "robot" can presently throw xittler

Summary of the quarterly earnings call

Steve Hersey

"Look! A monkey!"

Nothing, not even free rides, could persuade me to trust myself to one of this man's robocabs. That's even assuming they ever happen, which I think is highly unlikely.

NPR reports that he's planning to achieve low manufacturing cost by using a "revolutionary" manufacturing process where almost the whole body is cast in one shot. Surely I cannot be the only person thinking "This isn't going to be as quick or as cheap as he seems to think. Process revolutions never do."

Re: Summary of the quarterly earnings call

Spazturtle

A problem I can see with making the body one piece is that it means you can't make any adjustments, so all the other parts now need more wiggle room built into them.

Boom aerospace who are start up trying to make a new passenger plane put out a post saying that their plane won't have any ugly panel gaps on the interior trim, I spoke to a person who fits plane interiors and he said those gaps are there to make adjustments as the holes are never in the same place on different aircraft of the same model.

Re: Summary of the quarterly earnings call

Anonymous Coward

Well, either boom is using something exotic for their fuselage, or when it heats up in supersonic airflow, they'll end up with gaps in their interior panels whether they put them there in the first place or not....

Status of Tesla's humanoid robot Optimus.

that one in the corner

> We are able to do simple factory tasks or at least, I should say, factory tasks in the lab[1]. We do think we will have Optimus in limited production in the natural factory itself, doing useful tasks before the end of this year.

This is a "status report" worthy of being relevant to the analysts?

> These are just guesses.

So the answer to that question is - No. No, this is not a status report.

> And then I think we may be able to sell it externally by the end of next year.

Well, you managed to sell more than one of that flame thrower, so there is probably *someone* who is willing to buy one, if only as a curio.

[1] it can pass a cup of tea but only if the mug is lab-quality ceramicware, with no greasy contanimants and stirred with one of those magnetic bars, so no risk of the spoon sticking out at an awkward angle.

Gotta keep Pumping and Thumping that American Dream Dump Thing of Today ......

amanfromMars 1

Tesla misses the mark on all fronts in quarter of chaos. Who cares that net profit slid 55%? Not Wall Street.

What does that tell you about the true state and fundamental nature of the US economy and its stock markets? Everyone a winner when no one loses?

Dominate

StrangerHereMyself

Electric vehicles will only dominate if several pain points are solved:

- range has to equal or surpass that of an ICE car

- charging needs to be as quick as filling up your tank with gas(oline)

- battery should last the lifetime of the car with no appreciable degradation

Only if these conditions are met people will switch en masse to EV's.

There's one EV advantage, though: they will eventually be much cheaper to build and maintain than ICE cars.

Re: Dominate

Charlie Clark

You're missing one: electricity grids will have to expand both generation and distribution to meet significant new peak demand.

Re: Dominate

Andy Non

I'd also add:

- adequate charging infrastructure.

A "green" relative switched to an EV only to sell it and go back to petrol after a year due to range anxiety, lack of charging infrastructure and difficulty with long journeys when discovering charging stations out of order or with long queues. Then you get other issues like being fined for charging your car in a supermarket car park outside of normal shopping hours, or it taking longer to charge than the max permissible parking time. Then there is the plethora of "apps" you need to use which sometimes don't work properly... you pay for a charge, come back later and find your car hasn't been charged but your credit card has.

It doesn't help when you hear of ongoing issues with vehicles like Tesla's truck, which goes rusty in the rain, rain also shorting out the batteries and landing you a £17,000 bill to replace them like the guy in Edinburgh who was foolish enough to drive on a rainy day. /s

Re: Dominate

John Miles

One advantage of an EV - no particulate filter or issues with short journeys where engine doesn't have chance to warm up.

I'm not sure we necessary need EVs to match current vehicle's range, just have a reasonable range and quick and ubiquitous charging stations.

I'm looking at a new EV similar to my current car - range is about 50% of my current one, but that just means need to recharge every week rather than visit fuel station every two weeks (I'd much rather just plug in at home rather than visit fuel station)

Re: Dominate

Andy Non

I agree, but unfortunately plugging in at home isn't possible for many drivers who don't have off the road parking. They are stuck with public charging points... or running very long extension leads over the pavement to wherever they managed to park their car. Could be interesting for someone living in a tenth floor flat. ;-)

You are also left with the issue of what to do if you need to make a long journey? You become reliant on the availability of working / available charging points along your route. Not as quick or easy as pulling into one of the vast number of petrol filling station for 5 minutes. It was the long journeys that put my relative off his EV. Even if 99% of your journeys are local, the other 1% can be quite problematic.

Re: Dominate

John Miles

Yes the long journeys and those without suitable off street parking are waiting for the "quick and ubiquitous charging stations"

But for families with two cars available and suitable parking - having an EV instead of a small petrol/gas for local runs is a something to consider

Re: Dominate

spuck

As revealed earlier today, the International Energy Association said adoption of EVs in China is higher than in the West due to local prices being lower than traditional combustion engine cars.

Well, duh. As soon as you can buy an EV for less than an ICE, I too will predict that more EVs will be sold. Follow me for more money tips.

"Musk said [..] We believe"

Pascal Monett

There is no "We" with Musk. It's what he believes that count.

And he can go promise yet more awesome and outstanding improvements for his death wagon. I'm pretty sure we'll be hearing more accounts of latest-model Teslas plowing into something or another under Full Self-Hallucinating.

Reason for shares to go up

Andy 73

Tesla: "If we make cheap cars, we will loose money. So we want to do something else."

Shareholders: "But we want you to make cheap cars!"

Shares plummet.

Tesla: "Oh, OK, we'll make cheap cars."

Shareholders: "Yay! We're going to make billions from cheap cars!"

Shares bounce back.

All of the rest is just fluff. The core shareholder theory is that Tesla will sell more cars next year than they did last year. Robotaxi was an admission that they haven't actually got some magic sauce that makes their cars dramatically cheaper to manufacture than any other car company on the planet, and they can't scale them infinitely. Musk needs a new growth thesis, but shareholders want him to deliver on the previous set of promises first.

Owning a Tesla

Alan Bourke

"Imagine your printer is also your car. That's what owning a Tesla is like." - Gary Whitta

Tesla = Monorail?

chivo243

I think it might be so…

call-me-mark

Musk quoted as saying "Because if you've got a sentient humanoid robot..."

The word "sentient" doing some heavy lifting there.

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