News: 1707330614

  ARM Give a man a fire and he's warm for a day, but set fire to him and he's warm for the rest of his life (Terry Pratchett, Jingo)

Ford pulls the plug on EV strategy as losses pile up

(2024/02/07)


The reality of electric vehicle prices has finally caught up with the venerable US automaker Ford, which said yesterday that it's rethinking its loss-making EV strategy.

The news came during Ford's [1]Q4 2023 earnings call yesterday, and included revelations that the Detroit-based biz was also reassessing its EV battery strategy, a decision that comes as no surprise in the wake of delays announced last year.

"We delayed our second joint venture battery plant in Kentucky. We reduced the size of our new lithium iron phosphate plant in Michigan, and we did not proceed with our JV battery plant in Turkey," Ford CFO, John Lawler, said on the call.

[2]

"We are further adjusting installed capacity to match demand, reassessing vertical integration in new battery chemistries, adjusting Gen 2 products and potentially their launch timing to ensure they meet our criteria for profitability."

[3]

[4]

Lawler said much of the decision is due to a drive to reduce capital expenditure in Ford's EV division, named Model e. which he expects to eat up around 40 percent of this spending in the coming year.

"As we continue to adjust to market dynamics, we are scrutinizing every dollar and will continue to drive efficiencies, targeting to land at the lower end of our CapEx range," Lawler said.

[5]

Despite an overall increase in revenue of 12 percent and year-end profits of $4.3 billion, Ford's EV division lost almost $4.7 billion, Lawler said.

Ford CEO James Farley laid much of the blame for the losses on EV pricing - a known [6]sticking point for consumers unwilling to pay thousands more for a vehicle while inflation is up and interest rates [7]remain . high

"Relative to EVs, there's a lot we can do, and there's a lot we're doing. I think you're going to see a lot of seismic changes in the industry because of this pricing power reality that we've all faced," Farley said on the call. "It's on us to get the cost right. That is the issue with the transition."

[8]Car dealers openly beg Biden to put brakes on electric vehicle drive

[9]Power grids tremble as electric vehicle growth set to accelerate 19% next year

[10]SAP hits brakes on Tesla company car deal

[11]Going green Hertz: Rental giant axes third of EV fleet over lack of demand

While Ford's overall performance [12]beat Wall Street expectations for the quarter, this isn't the first time we've heard negative news for the Model e division. On last quarter's call in October, Lawler said that Ford was [13]delaying $12 billion in EV investment "given the dynamic EV environment," and a need to adjust costs.

Lawler shared another way Ford planned to hold back and watch the market: Delaying the rollout of its second generation of EVs.

[14]

"Our Gen 2 vehicles won't launch unless we can get to a profit and a return on that capital that we're investing there at the pricing environment that we now understand is reality," Lawler said. "We know that we have to have this electric vehicle business stand on its own and be profitable because we know that there are competitors out there."

Lawler also rescinded previous guidance that Ford's EV division would hit an 8 percent margin by 2026, telling investors he "[doesn't] think anybody believes that by 2026, we can bridge from here to 8 percent."

Ford appears to be pinning its short-term hopes on hybrid electric vehicles, sales of which it expects to grow 40 percent in 2024. Despite all the electric doom and gloom, Ford said it's still committed to EVs, and that it expects the Model e business will grow in 2024, too.

"We know that we have to have this electric vehicle business stand on its own and be profitable because we know that there are competitors out there," he said. "We talked about that the Chinese as well as Tesla that are profitable, and we have to cross that fulcrum and get there."

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[1] https://shareholder.ford.com/Investors/events/event-details/2024/Ford-Motor-Company-Fourth-Quarter-2023-Earnings/default.aspx

[2] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2ZcQLmGT@GgReI3ybYSZR3QAAAVU&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0

[3] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44ZcQLmGT@GgReI3ybYSZR3QAAAVU&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0

[4] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33ZcQLmGT@GgReI3ybYSZR3QAAAVU&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0

[5] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44ZcQLmGT@GgReI3ybYSZR3QAAAVU&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0

[6] https://www.theregister.com/2023/01/05/ev_deloitte_price/

[7] https://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/buy-ev-2024-electric-car-sales-slow-rcna132944

[8] https://www.theregister.com/2023/11/29/ev_car_dealers_biden/

[9] https://www.theregister.com/2023/09/08/ev_growth_gartner/

[10] https://www.theregister.com/2024/02/06/sap_tesla_company_cars/

[11] https://www.theregister.com/2024/01/12/hertz_electric_vehicle_cuts/

[12] https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/06/ford-f-q4-2023-earnings.html

[13] https://www.businessinsider.com/ford-delays-ev-manufacturing-investment-cars-too-expensive-2023-10

[14] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33ZcQLmGT@GgReI3ybYSZR3QAAAVU&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0

[15] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/



Despite ... profits of $4.3 billion, [we] lost almost $4.7 billion

steelpillow

Beancounters. Don'ch'a love 'em!

Re: Despite ... profits of $4.3 billion, [we] lost almost $4.7 billion

Anonymous Coward

The company as a whole made 4.3bn, despite the EV unit losing 4.7bn.

Half-truths

Snake

Sorry, Ford

"Ford CEO James Farley laid much of the blame for the losses on EV pricing - a known sticking point for consumers unwilling to pay thousands more for a vehicle while inflation is up and interest rates remain. high "

Ford EV vehicles are a hard sell because they aren't good values , expensive with *known* range issues. The F-150 Lightning is a known DOG when it comes it range, from almost useless towing range to watching your range indicator fall before your very eyes in cold weather. The Mustang Mach-E has the same range issues. PLUS, plus, your scumbag dealership network adds up to tens of thousands of dollars to the retail price as "Market adjustment" - on top of the fact that no one is buying your EV's.

Yet another self-inflicted wound by STUPID American greed and trying to blame everything else but yourself.

Re: Half-truths

Anonymous Coward

Pretty much any electric vehicle is going to have a useless towing range - it's just the physics of it all. EVs produce a lot of torque straight up, but put them under load and watch the fuel source drain. Similar but more extensive than an ICE vehicle.

Re: Half-truths

John Robson

Tell me you don't understand physics...

Adding a trailer to any vehicle will impact it's range - and that impact is basically down to increased rolling resistance and increased aerodynamic resistance.

Typically you don't get as much benefit from regen braking with a larger trailer since they throw energy away as heat through friction before they push the vehicle hard enough.

Grogan

My octogenarian parents have a Ford hybrid electric. I think it's an "Escape" but I"m not sure. It's a typical hatch-back vehicle that they make these days. It's an expensive machine, but is it ever nice. Unlike EV's, it's even more practical than a regular car because you don't have to stop for gas very often. My folks go back and forth to the city for doctors appointments and stuff and still wouldn't need gas that week.

They've had it for more than a year and haven't had any trouble, but we'll see how long that expensive tech goes without needing major money.

Filippo

Sounds like a PHEV? I have a PHEV too (by Hyundai, but still) and i'm really happy with it. It's a weird concept, but I find it's actually a pretty good compromise. You can drive around the city without using any gas (or maybe a little bit for heating if it's winter), and just use it as a regular car for longer trips.

Anonymous Coward

PHEV's are the only viable solution to making a large pickup. What is so stupid is that large pickups, with their gas guzzling when you are just nipping down the road for a pack of fags, benefit far more from being a PHEV than other vehicles. On the other hand, because of their weight, poor drag, and towing, and use way from the highway and charging stations, they are even less suitable for full electric that all others.

The overall benefits of PHEV's should have played to the strengths of the existing car makers, and made Tesla much less attractive. They let you sell far more cars for each battery plant you build. They give 80% of the environmental benefit for 10% of the batteries. You have a gradual path to smoothly increase the electricness as your battery manufacturing capacity and cost improve.

I just find it incomprehensible that Ford and even moreso Toyota, didn't jump boot's n all into PHEV's.

Why Toyota didn't just stick a prius engine in a HiLux with a 20kWh battery, has always mystified me.

Anonymous Coward

I just find it incomprehensible that Ford and even moreso Toyota, didn't jump boot's n all into PHEV's.

It's economics - why do something if you really don't have to? Toyota are selling Rav4 hybrids by the bucket load and most of their range outside the US are available as hybrids (Yaris, Corolla, Camry, C-HR, Rav4, Kluger). I understand in Europe you can get Toyota PHEVs, but when their hybrids are selling just fine why incur more cost rather than sell old research - their hybrid concept has been around since the dinosaurs and is well established? It's why emissions standards exist - without a prod manufacturers have little incentive over "business as usual".

Professor_Iron

A hybrid vehicle works best as a combination of an underpowered electric motor and underpowered petrol engine- when the user is just cruising it provides good mileage and once it's pedal to the metal it combines the power of the two units to provide reasonable ooommph for the duration of an overtake or acceleration. So no...hybrid pickup trucks wouldn't make sense, the Prius engine in a Hilux would feel like driving a Ford Transit from the 1960s as you need that extra power for hours when towing something, it'd be a road hazard for the tempo of contemporary traffic.

You read the article all the way through

Anonymous Coward

Then, almost right at the end, a gem: "have to cross that fulcrum"

WANK BINGO!!!

Mrs Henry Ford will be turning in her grave

Anonymous Coward

She was a great advocate of early EV's. With all the competition (everywhere but in the USA where it is basically a MuskMobile or nothing) piling in with EV's and loads of new ones on their way from Korea and China they seem to be signing their death warrant.

Ford could be the first of the big three to fail. GM won't be far behind. Stellants may last a bit longer thanks to the multiple brands that they own in Europe.

As for the US Stealership of marking up cars over MSRP... That is viewed by the rest of the world as somewhat arcane. Stop it and you might survive. Dealers seem to exist here in Europe and elswhere by not adding thousands to the price.

Re: Mrs Henry Ford will be turning in her grave

elsergiovolador

She was a great advocate of early EV's.

She also didn't divorce the friend of Hitler, so there is that.

Re: Mrs Henry Ford will be turning in her grave

Youngone

Neither Ford nor GM are going to fail, because American taxpayers are waiting in the wings with a huge pile money to hand over as soon as they need it really badly.

What's more, management at Ford and GM are well aware of it.

Yay capitalism!

killing top selling models in favour sub evs

CountCadaver

Killing the focus and fiesta in Europe (2 top selling models) was always utter lunacy, NO ONE is going to pay BMW, Audi or Mercedes money for a Ford.

Particularly not with their latest Tesla aping sync4 infotainment system with virtually everything on the touch screen and a useless hey ford voice assistant

Re: killing top selling models in favour sub evs

Professor_Iron

I'm afraid it's on purpose - Ford of Europe is going to transition to some kind of commercial vehicle company, like DAF or Isuzu did. They have an agreement with Volkswagen that still grants them some kind of access to car platforms if they make up their mind, but Ford is now all about the vans. And vans are not your childhood tinboxes anymore - they are really expensive stuff and there are so many delivery companies looking for them - it's a market segment where everybody wants to keep a young fleet and is ready to place big orders. So as much as I'd love to hate Ford for it, I can see this move of disbanding the car division work out for them.

Anonymous Coward

Hertz dumping their EV fleet, Volvo pulling the plug on Polestar, now Ford likewise. EV sales down 25% in the UK last month, and market share peaked and dropping? Doesn't bode well, hopefully it will encourage those working on sustainable liquid fuel.

Once upon a time....

Anonymous Coward

The USA led the world. Unleaded fuel AFAIK originated because of US laws like the Catalytic Converter.

Now they are laggards.

Here in Europe we have a lot more models at the lower end of the price scale to choose from including the Citroen AMI.

The reason is that the EU has put in place laws that give an end date to new ICE only sales and even for PHEV sales.

sure, some US States have done the same but at the moment the march of the Monster Trucks goes on. The TeslaCyberPOS is just a silly vanity project from Elon. It's lack of serious real world testing will hit sales hard. It's performance in the snow is AFAIK, laughable.

It is little wonder that sales are down.

Yet here in my non-afluent part of the UK, I'm seeing plenty of new EV's on the road. When I went full EV 5 years ago, seeing another EV in the area was a rarity. Not now. A neighbour has just taken delivery of an MG4. They love it. Their previous car was a Ford Focus. Ford here are just as bad as the US when it comes to EV's.

Re: Once upon a time....

Anonymous Coward

The reason is that the EU has put in place laws that give an end date to new ICE only sales and even for PHEV sales.

And the big German car makers have already forced them to change the criteria and push that date out.

Re: Once upon a time....

elsergiovolador

EV is just another Diesel.

Some people made a lot of money on subsidies. The gravy train is coming to a stop and they'll find another gravy train.

While the idea of EV may be sound on the surface it has more holes than Swiss cheese. They are much worse than current ICE cars in every aspect, including environmental impact.

Re: Once upon a time....

John Robson

"While the idea of EV may be sound on the surface it has more holes than Swiss cheese. They are much worse than current ICE cars in every aspect, including environmental impact."

I think you got ICE and EV the wrong way round there - actually I know you did, and I;m equally willing to bet you think you didn't.

Re: Once upon a time....

Anonymous Coward

but only for the first 150k kilometers.

Re: Once upon a time....

anothercynic

The MG4 is actually a quite a nice EV... in summer its range is around 200 miles, in the winter it's not that great (120-150 miles). It's ideal as a runabout or a small commuter.

Re: Once upon a time....

MachDiamond

"The MG4 is actually a quite a nice EV... in summer its range is around 200 miles, in the winter it's not that great (120-150 miles)."

Why is 150 miles of range not that great? IF you can charge at home, it could be more than adequate given how far most people drive on a daily basis and especially how far people drive in the middle of winter. The variance is also much less than you state. Moggy at Electric Classic Cars in Wales did some tests on three different EV's. His YouTube channel is a lot of fun. If you lose 20% range in the winter due to a cold battery, that's still 180 miles of range or ~3 hours of driving. Most people make long trips in the warmer months. There's no EV that's going to be a "one size fits all".

A car that runs on petrol or diesel needs to have a fairly long range or you'd be stopping to fill up too often which would mean there would need to be many more petrol stations and it would be inconvenient. Charging up at home by spending 30 seconds plugging in the lead each night or every few nights isn't an onerous task. It's also much easier to fit charging points in a car park over some sort of refueling scheme. A very limited level 2 charging point (3kWish) at a train station where you catch a train to get to work would be sufficient to replenish a battery over the course of a working day. Even somebody buying a Ford Lightning and towing short distances with it could bide fine if they can plug in every night or every couple of nights.

Tessier-Ashpool

Hertz aren't dumping their EV fleet. Hertz EVs are mostly Teslas, which are expensive to buy and repair, and have significant depreciation. Hertz bought expensive and sell low. Rental companies sell their stock off after a few years, and the depreciation hit Hertz hard. "We are experiencing the consequence of a material price decline in Teslas and EVs more generally". They are flogging off about 40% of their Teslas, about 4.4% of their total vehicle fleet. Hertz are now focusing on buying cheaper EVs.

Phil O'Sophical

Hertz aren't dumping their EV fleet.

From one of the articles linked to: 'Approximately 20,000 EVs are to be offloaded from its US fleet throughout 2024, and the company plans to spend at least a portion of the proceeds buying internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles "to meet customer demand."'

Spent Batteries

simonlb

Ignoring the whole range thing and the initial high cost of an EV, one very important question is what happens when the batteries are end-of-life? Is everyone expected to just cough up £5000, £10000 or £20000 for a new set of batteries and also spend a couple of grand having them swapped out? What about the old ones? A discount on the new batteries of a couple of grand? Or will you have to take them somewhere for recycling and get a few hundred quid back? At least with an ICE car I can get a replacement engine for a reasonable cost, but if the cost of a new set of batteries is 3, 4, 5, 6, or 10 or more times the value of the car where is the incentive to change them? I've never seen anything even remotely addressing this from any of the EV manufacturers, although we do know Tesla will happily sell you set of new batteries at the competitive price of 20-odd grand and they're 'doing you a favour mate!'

Sarcasm aside though, I suspect this will be used as the perfect business model to ease consumers into accepting leasing a car over ever owning one.

Re: Spent Batteries

Anonymous Coward

Batteries in most countries will just go to landfill. There really isn't that many lithium ion recycling joints kicking around.

Re: Spent Batteries

John Robson

Expensive things don't go to landfill.

The reason there isn't much battery recycling, is that there aren't many end of life batteries - because they have substantially outlasted initial expectations.

Anonymous Coward

The problem with EVs is that Physics is a b*tch.

Cold weather - poor performance/range.

Towing - poor performance/range.

Range - poor without oversized battery that then makes the vehicle very heavy for its size. Let's not even mention the environmental impacts of large batteries.

Refueling speed - poor.

Coupled with this...

Fast charging doesn't work that well, decreases the life of the battery, creates a lot of heat which has to be dissipated somehow and is quite inefficient.

Charger networks in most countries are poor and will easily become overwhelmed by increasing ownership coupled with long charging times.

Reliability and availability of chargers seems low and costs are rising.

EVs have high initial costs and low residual values which drivers have become aware of.

All of this has really meant that EV ownership is starting to peak.

BEVs simply aren't the solution to the problem unless the problem is "how do we only allow the chosen few to drive"

You might also want to ask yourself "If EVs/BEVs are so good and are the future why do all politicians get around in big shitter ICE powered SUVs?" You really can't beat some arsehole telling you that you have to buy an EV whilst they rock up in a 6-cylinder Range Rover. My line with politicians is "If it's so good, you first".

Purchase cost is one thing

Pascal Monett

I think EV owners are going to come to an unpleasant reality : nobody is going to buy an 8-year-old EV.

It's batteries will need replacing, and that cost will likely exceed the value of the car.

So, you buy an EV ? You're keeping it.

Re: Purchase cost is one thing

elaar

I'd say about 90% of the reasonably priced+ EVs are leased, so resale value isn't important.

Many companies offer tax-swerving schemes like the Octopus one for example, to lease an EV at a reasonable cost.

Within another 8-10 years I'd expect there to be a practical and more reasonably priced way of replacing the battery pack, we've advanced a long way EV wise in the last 8.

Re: Purchase cost is one thing

John Robson

The difference being that a degraded battery won't leave you stranded at the side of the road in the same way that any one of a thousand worn ICE components would. They fade predictably.

And of course a degraded battery is still perfectly serviceable, and valuable as a second life battery.

You can't claim that batteries are both very expensive and worthless in the same claim.

We could be way simpler if we didn't try to be so flexible.

- Andrew Grover, ACPI maintainer on Linux-power.