Amazon hitches a ride with SpaceX for Project Kuiper launches
- Reference: 1701695714
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2023/12/04/amazon_spacex_project_kuiper/
- Source link:
This is all about adding capacity to support the schedule, Amazon insists. Yet of the heavy-lift rocket launches Amazon has so far procured from different providers, a good few still depend on rockets that have yet to take their maiden flight, let alone achieve operational status.
SpaceX was conspicuously absent from the initial Project Kuiper launch contracts, much to the chagrin of at least one Amazon shareholder who [1]filed a lawsuit earlier this year alleging that Amazon failed to do its due diligence in the contract award, as evidenced by the omission of SpaceX and its proven launch system in favor of Blue Origin, Arianespace, and United Launch Alliance (ULA).
[2]
Having shown that its first two prototype Project Kuiper satellites work as expected, Amazon is ramping up spacecraft production to deploy the constellation as rapidly as possible.
[3]Two sats, one customer: Japan's NTT signs up for Amazon's space internet
[4]China lobs tech demo into orbit for People's Republic version of Starlink
[5]Amazon's Project Kuiper satellites nail online orders from orbit
[6]Amazon's Project Kuiper thrusters deliver Prime orbit adjustments
However, this hinges on hitching a ride to orbit. While Amazon's order with SpaceX includes several Atlas V launches, lofting the vast majority of its satellites will depend on the yet-to-be-flown Vulcan Centaur, Ariane 6, and New Glenn.
The Vulcan Centaur might make its debut in the coming months, the Ariane 6 is tentatively set for some time between [7]mid-June and the end of July 2024 , and Blue Origin's New Glenn looks set to reach the launchpad next year.
[8]
Even assuming the three rockets do indeed make their first flights in 2024, all are hugely delayed.
Although SpaceX appears quite happy to launch rivals to its Starlink constellation on the Falcon 9, it is easy to imagine a chill breeze blowing through Amazon after the company signed off on the deal: Amazon's Jeff Bezos and SpaceX supremo Elon Musk are not exactly the best of friends.
[9]
Still, for anyone worrying about the impact of rockets on climate change and global warming, the deal will be reassuring. Hell, it appears, just froze over. ®
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[1] https://www.theregister.com/2023/09/04/project_kuiper_amazon_lawsuit/
[2] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2ZW4FttPFTgGmjQUGB07GlAAAAIM&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[3] https://www.theregister.com/2023/11/29/ntt_amazon_kuiper/
[4] https://www.theregister.com/2023/11/24/china_satellite_internet_testing/
[5] https://www.theregister.com/2023/11/17/amazon_project_kuiper_success/
[6] https://www.theregister.com/2023/11/10/amazon_project_kuiper_thrusters/
[7] https://www.linkedin.com/posts/josef-aschbacher_ariane6-activity-7135906975489359872-c4Il?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
[8] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44ZW4FttPFTgGmjQUGB07GlAAAAIM&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[9] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44ZW4FttPFTgGmjQUGB07GlAAAAIM&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[10] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
Re: Four different launch providers....
Meh - I suspect that the integration will not be the biggest challenge they face.
And each of the launch suppliers will be keen to ensure that integration is done properly.
The chances of the Ariane 6, Vulcan and Glenn rockets all being completely reliable from the get go however... I suspect there is a decent chance they'll lose some to launch issues.
Atlas and Falcon both have good demonstrated reliability.
Re: Four different launch providers....
Jeff is not afraid to throw huge amounts of money at a market he wants to control.
I have confidence in the payload integration teams at SpaceX, ULA and Ariane Space (even though some of them have had time for staff turn over without active contracts). I was worried about Amazon having to work with four launchers at the same time but it probably won't work out like that. ULA/Atlas goes first - waiting on satellites from Amazon. Ariane is probably second because ULA/Vulcan will be waiting for engines. SpaceX/Falcon does not start until mid 2025 so they are likely third. The difficult race to predict is Blue Origin vs SpaceX/Starship. Starship has more launches booked than licenses (will likely get more licenses per year once environmental effects of Starship can be measured from experience). New Glenn has a bigger engine problem (7/launch) than ULA (2/launch).
Perhaps some Kuipers will go up on the next generation Antares.
tight schedule
Even if all three of the other rockets (Ariane 6, Vulcan and Glenn) make their initial launches "on time", there is a big difference between that and having the sort of launch cadence needed for Kuiper. Heck, can BO put out enough BE-4 engines for both New Glenn and Vulcan to meet their schedules (which also include non-Kuiper launches)? While NG's booster is to be reusable it's going to take a number of launches before they will be reflying boosters - more BE-4 engines.
I would be pleasantly surprised if all three launch providers could meet their schedules. But I expect SpaceX will get at least a dozen extra Kuiper launches to cover it.
Re: tight schedule
Not so tight schedule. Spacex have shown that they can reliably re-use boosters and put stuff into orbit, so any CEO will tell you that they can do the same thing in half the time with a quarter of the resources without having to hire additional staff.
Four different launch providers....
I predict they will lose some spacecraft in a launch.
Integration of a satellite launch bus and the rocket that launches it is not a trivial task. I'm sure all their providers will be very professional and helpful but Project Kuiper now needs four separate integration teams to deal with them.
One of the big lessons of big systems development is courtesy of IBM: "Adding people to a late project makes it later." One corollary of this is "not adding people will result in overwork for the people you have."