Bezos might beat Musk to Mars as NASA recruits Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket
(2023/11/23)
- Reference: 1700742671
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2023/11/23/blue_origin_glenn_rocket_mars/
- Source link:
Blue Origin is expected to launch two small Martian satellites as the first-ever interplanetary payload aboard its upcoming New Glenn rocket, NASA confirmed this week.
In February, the Jeff Bezos-owned aerospace biz was [1]awarded the Escape and Plasma Acceleration and Dynamics Explorers (ESCAPADE) contract under the space agency's Launch Services Program.
ESCAPADE is classified as a Class D mission
[4]
NASA estimates the mission cost to be $79 million, a relatively small sum compared to billions it has spent on its more extravagant projects, such as Space Shuttle, the International Space Station, or its James Webb Space Telescope. In other words, it's not the end of the world if Blue Origin's New Glenn heavy-lift orbital launch vehicle blows up and destroys its payload in the process.
[5]
[6]
Bradley Smith, director of NASA's Launch Services Office, said the ESCAPADE launch has been penciled in for August 2024 during his presentation [7][PDF] at the latest meeting held by the NASA Advisory Council Human Exploration and Operations Committee.
"It's an incredibly ambitious first launch for New Glenn and we really appreciate the partnership," he said, [8]according to SpaceNews. Smith confirmed that the scheduled launch time means that: "We will very likely be the very first launch of New Glenn," he added.
[9]
The ESCAPADE payload includes twin probes designed to study how the energy and momentum of charged particles in solar wind affects Mars' magnetosphere and influences the planet's climate. That's all well and good, but considering Blue Origin has yet to fly its New Glenn rocket in any tests raises uncertainty about whether it'll be able to deliver the spacecraft on time.
Bezos' bunch still needs to assemble the 98-meter-long, 7-meter-wide rocket, roll it out onto the launchpad, and complete all the necessary tests to be able to conduct practice flights. And it only has about nine months to do it all if it's to make the proposed deadline.
"There's certainly some schedule risk associated with New Glenn getting to the pad," Smith said, who later declined to estimate the chances that an August 2024 launch would occur.
[10]SpaceX celebrates Starship launch as a success – even with the explosion
[11]NASA geeks code new tricks to model rocket plumes and avoid a lunar dust-up
[12]New orientation assistant to help prevent astronauts getting lost in space
[13]Mars' iron core surrounded by molten rock, seismic studies show
Smith has plenty of reason to be hesitant. Blue Origin initially planned New Glenn's maiden flight for 2020 at the earliest, and it is now more than three years later. Engineers overhauled the rocket's initial design, changing its boosters and engines, which caused the prolonged delay.
New Glenn will be capable of launching payloads of more than 13 metric tons to geostationary transfer orbits that could send payloads further out into space, and 45 tons for satellites flying to low Earth orbits. Compared to rival SpaceX, New Glenn is more powerful than its Falcon 9 but less powerful than its Falcon Heavy launch vehicles.
[14]
If the New Glenn blasts off on time, and it's a big if, Bezos could beat space rival Elon Musk to Mars. This wouldn't be popular with the SpaceX mogul - but then again, Musk predicted in 2016 his first Mars landing [15]would happen by 2018. ®
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[1] https://www.blueorigin.com/news/nasa-awards-mars-science-mission-launch-to-blue-origin-new-glenn
[2] https://explorers.larc.nasa.gov/APMIDEX2016/MO/pdf_files/Class-D-Exec1_PE-Forum.pdf
[3] https://explorers.larc.nasa.gov/APMIDEX2016/MO/pdf_files/Class-D-Exec1_PE-Forum.pdf
[4] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2ZV@FNW3ldsSgNJIt-DDAIAAAAME&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
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[6] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33ZV@FNW3ldsSgNJIt-DDAIAAAAME&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[7] https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/lsp-heo-nac-briefing-2023-final.pdf
[8] https://spacenews.com/nasa-mars-smallsat-mission-to-be-on-first-new-glenn-launch/
[9] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44ZV@FNW3ldsSgNJIt-DDAIAAAAME&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[10] https://www.theregister.com/2023/11/20/spacex_celebrates_starship_explosion/
[11] https://www.theregister.com/2023/11/16/nasa_lander_plume_simulations/
[12] https://www.theregister.com/2023/11/06/new_orientation_assistant_to_help/
[13] https://www.theregister.com/2023/10/27/mars_iron_core_surrounded_by/
[14] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33ZV@FNW3ldsSgNJIt-DDAIAAAAME&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[15] https://www.theregister.com/2016/04/27/spacex_first_mars_landing_2018/
[16] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
In February, the Jeff Bezos-owned aerospace biz was [1]awarded the Escape and Plasma Acceleration and Dynamics Explorers (ESCAPADE) contract under the space agency's Launch Services Program.
ESCAPADE is classified as a Class D mission
[2]PDF
, meaning NASA considers it a low priority but high-risk mission. It will accept a "medium or significant risk" [3][PDF] of not being able to successfully carry out the mission.[4]
NASA estimates the mission cost to be $79 million, a relatively small sum compared to billions it has spent on its more extravagant projects, such as Space Shuttle, the International Space Station, or its James Webb Space Telescope. In other words, it's not the end of the world if Blue Origin's New Glenn heavy-lift orbital launch vehicle blows up and destroys its payload in the process.
[5]
[6]
Bradley Smith, director of NASA's Launch Services Office, said the ESCAPADE launch has been penciled in for August 2024 during his presentation [7][PDF] at the latest meeting held by the NASA Advisory Council Human Exploration and Operations Committee.
"It's an incredibly ambitious first launch for New Glenn and we really appreciate the partnership," he said, [8]according to SpaceNews. Smith confirmed that the scheduled launch time means that: "We will very likely be the very first launch of New Glenn," he added.
[9]
The ESCAPADE payload includes twin probes designed to study how the energy and momentum of charged particles in solar wind affects Mars' magnetosphere and influences the planet's climate. That's all well and good, but considering Blue Origin has yet to fly its New Glenn rocket in any tests raises uncertainty about whether it'll be able to deliver the spacecraft on time.
Bezos' bunch still needs to assemble the 98-meter-long, 7-meter-wide rocket, roll it out onto the launchpad, and complete all the necessary tests to be able to conduct practice flights. And it only has about nine months to do it all if it's to make the proposed deadline.
"There's certainly some schedule risk associated with New Glenn getting to the pad," Smith said, who later declined to estimate the chances that an August 2024 launch would occur.
[10]SpaceX celebrates Starship launch as a success – even with the explosion
[11]NASA geeks code new tricks to model rocket plumes and avoid a lunar dust-up
[12]New orientation assistant to help prevent astronauts getting lost in space
[13]Mars' iron core surrounded by molten rock, seismic studies show
Smith has plenty of reason to be hesitant. Blue Origin initially planned New Glenn's maiden flight for 2020 at the earliest, and it is now more than three years later. Engineers overhauled the rocket's initial design, changing its boosters and engines, which caused the prolonged delay.
New Glenn will be capable of launching payloads of more than 13 metric tons to geostationary transfer orbits that could send payloads further out into space, and 45 tons for satellites flying to low Earth orbits. Compared to rival SpaceX, New Glenn is more powerful than its Falcon 9 but less powerful than its Falcon Heavy launch vehicles.
[14]
If the New Glenn blasts off on time, and it's a big if, Bezos could beat space rival Elon Musk to Mars. This wouldn't be popular with the SpaceX mogul - but then again, Musk predicted in 2016 his first Mars landing [15]would happen by 2018. ®
Get our [16]Tech Resources
[1] https://www.blueorigin.com/news/nasa-awards-mars-science-mission-launch-to-blue-origin-new-glenn
[2] https://explorers.larc.nasa.gov/APMIDEX2016/MO/pdf_files/Class-D-Exec1_PE-Forum.pdf
[3] https://explorers.larc.nasa.gov/APMIDEX2016/MO/pdf_files/Class-D-Exec1_PE-Forum.pdf
[4] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2ZV@FNW3ldsSgNJIt-DDAIAAAAME&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[5] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44ZV@FNW3ldsSgNJIt-DDAIAAAAME&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
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[7] https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/lsp-heo-nac-briefing-2023-final.pdf
[8] https://spacenews.com/nasa-mars-smallsat-mission-to-be-on-first-new-glenn-launch/
[9] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44ZV@FNW3ldsSgNJIt-DDAIAAAAME&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[10] https://www.theregister.com/2023/11/20/spacex_celebrates_starship_explosion/
[11] https://www.theregister.com/2023/11/16/nasa_lander_plume_simulations/
[12] https://www.theregister.com/2023/11/06/new_orientation_assistant_to_help/
[13] https://www.theregister.com/2023/10/27/mars_iron_core_surrounded_by/
[14] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33ZV@FNW3ldsSgNJIt-DDAIAAAAME&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[15] https://www.theregister.com/2016/04/27/spacex_first_mars_landing_2018/
[16] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
Re: Nothing much to be missed if lost.
Santa from Exeter
New Glenn *may* beat the odds, when it eventually flies. I wouldn't hold out too many hopes of 2024, never mind August.
Re: Nothing much to be missed if lost.
balrog
Oh its way more likely to be an August than 2024.......
Re: Nothing much to be missed if lost.
John Brown (no body)
The article mentions test flights before that launch, which seem to imply that the Mars sat launch won't be it's first launch, just its first active delivery mission.
Re: Nothing much to be missed if lost.
FrogsAndChips
The way I understand it, this may not be the very first flight, but still a practice test, hence the high-risk qualification by NASA. There's no way the New Glenn rocket will have performed enough test flights by August to take on the ESCAPADE satellites as a full commercial payload.
Possible cunning plan
Flocke Kroes
If (when?) New Glenn misses the deadline the next launch window will not be for a couple more years. It is remotely possible New Glenn will fly other payloads before 2026 and by the time ESCAPADE is ready again New Glenn will be a low risk rocket. NASA will be getting a $70M launch for $20M + two years storage costs.
Back to square 1. Do not pass Go. Do not collect ...
Lon24
"Engineers overhauled the rocket's initial design, changing its boosters and engines,"
Errm, isn't that basically the rocket?
Re: Back to square 1. Do not pass Go. Do not collect ...
John Brown (no body)
Depends how you calculate it :-)
The core stage and tankage etc is all still there, but possibly modified for the new engines, so yeah, a bit like an old car or plane restoration that only has maybe 10-15% original, everything else is new :-)
gecho
If all goes according to plan the Blue Origin engines will get their first flight test Christmas Eve on ULA's Vulcan rocket.
Nothing much to be missed if lost.
Historically the first flight of any new rocket type is almost a guaranteed fail, but if the satellites are cheap enough and their loss won't impact any other program why not take the risk to bump this up the schedule, New Glenn may beat the odds.
Worst case, building another pair will keep some engineers gainfully employed for a while.