News: 1698417011

  ARM Give a man a fire and he's warm for a day, but set fire to him and he's warm for the rest of his life (Terry Pratchett, Jingo)

Tenfold electric vehicles on 2030 roads could be a shock to the system

(2023/10/27)


There could be ten times the number of electric cars on the road by 2030 and stronger renewable energy policies are needed not just to keep them powered, but cleanly.

This is according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), which highlights vehicle volumes in the latest edition of the [1]World Energy Outlook . It estimates that 220 million electric vehicles will be in use by the close of this decade, up from 26 million in 2022.

Clean energy needs to play a greater role than it does today, the IEA says. This includes solar photovoltaics generating "more electricity than the entire US power system does currently," and the renewable share of the electricity mix has to increase to nearly 50 percent from the 30 percent it is today.

[2]

In the past two decades, demand for oil grew to 18 million barrels a day and "much" of this expansion was fueled by road transport, which accounts for around 45 percent of oil demand. The global car fleet is estimated to have reached upwards of 600 million cars in the last 20 years.

[3]

[4]

The picture is changing, however, claims IEA exec director Dr Faith Birol, who reckons the transition to clean energy is "happening worldwide and it's unstoppable."

"Governments, companies and investors need to get behind clean energy transitions rather than hindering them. There are immense benefits on offer, including new industrial opportunities and jobs, greater energy security, cleaner air, universal energy access and a safer climate for everyone.

[5]

"Taking into account the ongoing strains and volatility in traditional energy markets today, claims that oil and gas represent safe or secure choices for the world's energy and climate future look weaker than ever."

[6]No more Mr Nice DoJ: Tesla gets subpoenas over self-driving software claims

[7]'Recession-resilient' Tesla misses Q3 expectations, slows Mexico expansion

[8]Want a clean energy transition? Better start putting cash into electrical grid

[9]Japan cruises ahead with drive-thru EV charging trial

The IEA points to several areas that will require ongoing attention, including the charging infrastructure, and the shortage of key materials used in the manufacture of components, notably lithium. These elements are all far from mature.

More locally in Europe, there is the issue of EU tariffs that are standing in the way of European car makers exporting their goods to the UK, making the vehicles vastly more expensive.

China this year became the world's largest exporter of cars, shipping 2.3 million in the first half of this year, according to Canalys. Total car exports from China are forecast to grow to 5.4 million this year, with electric vehicles accounting for 2.2 million.

Electric car shipments are projected to reach 17.9 million units next year, up 19 percent year-on-year, but longer term [10]Gartner last month warned that electric power generation and grid capacity could start to limit uptake.

[11]

"Unless countries take actions to incentivize EV drivers to charge outside peak electricity consumption periods, the switch to EVs may put an additional strain on both the power generation capacity and the distribution infrastructure," said Jonathan Davenport, senior director analyst at Gartner. ®

Get our [12]Tech Resources



[1] https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2023

[2] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2ZTvewNbVmspzoMtZCmdT0wAAAIA&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0

[3] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44ZTvewNbVmspzoMtZCmdT0wAAAIA&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0

[4] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33ZTvewNbVmspzoMtZCmdT0wAAAIA&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0

[5] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44ZTvewNbVmspzoMtZCmdT0wAAAIA&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0

[6] https://www.theregister.com/2023/10/23/telsa_doj_investigation/

[7] https://www.theregister.com/2023/10/19/tesla_q3/

[8] https://www.theregister.com/2023/10/18/electrical_grid_investment_is_the/

[9] https://www.theregister.com/2023/10/17/japan_to_trial_wireless_charging/

[10] https://www.theregister.com/2023/09/08/ev_growth_gartner/

[11] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33ZTvewNbVmspzoMtZCmdT0wAAAIA&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0

[12] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/



No shit

cyberdemon

I predict that 400/230V residential distribution will be the first limiting factor in widespread EV adoption. We will need far more 11kV transformers to keep the current down to an acceptable level otherwise I^2R resistive losses are going to be too high. One EV takes 30A to charge at 7kW, and local transformers are limited to 3x400A, and we have about one per 100 houses.

But if we triple the number of 11kV substations at massive cost, we will then find the 11kV network needs upgrading. Then we upgrade that, and find the 33kV network is the bottleneck. Repeat for 66kV, 132kV, 400kV

Then something goes bang and the whole country is borked.

The electric grid is the most overloaded, inefficient, expensive, unreliable and vulnerable of all our energy distribution networks. Why are we piling everything on top of it?

Re: No shit

Steve Button

"Why are we piling everything on top of it?"

Because Bill Gates* and other clowns say it's the solution to climate change. It's not, because there are astronomically high costs associated with the infrastructure. And of course where are we going to get all this power from anyway? But useful idiots will say "if you build it, they will come" or some such.

* It's the main premise of his book, How to Avoid a Climate Disaster, which I've read. Electrify everything. He also thinks we should all fly less (but not him) and stop eating meat (but not him). Seriously. It actually says that. It's almost like The Hunger Games, they are mocking us.

Re: No shit

elsergiovolador

So brave. 5 years from now such comment will have removed the ability to pay for internet for a month from your BritCoin.

Re: No shit

xyz

Thank you. Now if you can just point that out to assorted politicians.

Re: No shit

elsergiovolador

Why would they care? It's not rich people problem.

Re: No shit

Persona

Domestic distribution is already feeling the strain. It's common with terraced houses for the incoming supply to go to one end and then be linked from one distribution board to the next till the end of the terrace. That linked supply cable is sized assuming that they are statistically not all going to want to pull huge currents at the same time. That goes out of the door with electric cars that are all plugged in and charging over night.

Not Just Charging Issues, Transport Infrastructure Too

Wally Dug

As well as the need for clean energy and charging infrastructure, electric vehicles are heavier than ICE vehicles which will probably result in more wear and tear on the road infrastructure. Will roads need to be repaired more often than they currently are once EVs get into more common use? Or do we need a redesign of our roads? Remember: It's not just cars, but buses and trucks, too.

And it's not just roads. What about bridges? Car parks? Ferries? Docks? Level crossings?

Re: Not Just Charging Issues, Transport Infrastructure Too

cyberdemon

They are not just heavier, but have much sharper acceleration too. It's the horizontal forces at the road surface that do the most damage, and F=ma.

We could at least charge them road tax

Re: Not Just Charging Issues, Transport Infrastructure Too

Steve Button

I think if you charged them VED, then there'd be even less reason for many people to get them.

They *are* the right solution for some people, and probably work out cheaper in the long run if you have everything lining up - shortish journeys - solar panels - your own driveway - you can afford a new one. Although with insurance costs going up specifically for battery powered cars, that's also a worry.

And then there's Insurance

cyberdemon

EVs are getting hard to insure because the slightest dent to the battery writes it off as unsafe, and that is the most expensive component.

But it's pushing up the premiums for ICE drivers too, because if you prang an EV and it's your fault then it's your insurance company on the hook to pay for the battery

Also EV drivers tend to drive like maniacs with the increased torque. IIRC they have twice as many accidents as ICE drivers, according to insurance companies

Re: And then there's Insurance

Steve Button

That's the main reason I was thinking of getting one (until I looked into it a bit more, and the price of electricity went through the roof). They are fast. Mid-life crisis and all that. However, I'm thinking of getting something much older and petrol and much more fun for burning around, and just pay the extra VED. Mx5? MR2? SLK? 325? Any other suggestions?

Re: And then there's Insurance

Lurko

"Mx5? MR2? SLK? 325? Any other suggestions?"

Depends what you want. I've put my money where my mouth is and gone for a poverty-spec MX-5 1.5 that was just coming off a four year lease. Lovely car to drive and genuinely puts a smile on my face every time I drive it, absolutely no regrets on the spec or engine. Driving on the mountain road from Rhyader to Devils Bridge a couple of weeks ago was a joy beyond measure. If you want more performance you could go for the 2 litre and all the toys, but there's much faster performance cars than a 2 litre MX-5 if that's what you're really after. Regarding the toys, each to their own, but the satnav's like most car maker satnavs (sluggish, non-intuitive, costly to update), and the benefit of a fancy stereo in a soft top car isn't that much of a big deal. The MX-5 is about being lightweight, having great handling, and looking fab. If buying older models, there's great spares availability and a fanatical owners club, although I think the latest model is worth shelling out for if the budget stretches.

SLK's: A very nice car, very comfortable - friend of ours has one - but it's a lot more money, more grown up, and there's a lot more of it than an MX-5.

325? Well it's your money, but for me that's just a saloon pared down to two doors and the lid peeled off. If I had one, I'd always look at proper convertibles and think "I wish I'd bought one of them".

MR2 - fond memories of the first one (regular ride, not mine), and a good reputation but you'd be looking at something pretty old.

Don't forget the Fiat 124 spider - basically a Fiat engine in a mildly tweaked MX-5 bodyshell. Something a bit different, looks appealing, but you then won't be in the unofficial "wave to other MX-5 drivers" club.

And there's the Honda S2000 if you don't mind the age and high running costs - that's perhaps the optimal combo of performance and convertible, but any maintenance can be pricey and VED is a horror.

It's ok, there are non car options..

BinkyTheMagicPaperclip

The power grid very obviously can't handle everyone moving to an EV, it hasn't needed a report to show this. So it's great that the government are upgrading the grid, vastly increasing the amount of public transport, reducing the cost of public transport too, and implementing an order of magnitude increase in the number of EV charging points.

Wait, what's that Mr. Sooty? The grid is only starting to be upgraded but supposedly will be complete by 2030 (oink, flap), major public transport projects have been cancelled, the price of public transport is (a few local initiatives such as the Bee network aside) going *up*, and the number of fast charging points is only rising slowly (in part due to lack of grid capacity). You mean the government hasn't even half arsed this? I am so surprised!

We're all in for a huge amount of disruption if the local addition of (if I remember correctly) two 20KV power lines or similar for six EV charge points is any guide. It took weeks on end.

Re: It's ok, there are non car options..

Doctor Syntax

"it hasn't needed a report to show this"

The bad news is that it has. Successive HMGs seem to think that all they need to do is pass legislation setting targets of whatever and whenever and it'll all happen whilst lacking any notion of what actually has to be done.

The Just Stop Oil & similar should also read it. You can't just do this, that or the other. You have to plan, put real money in and work hard at implementing the plan over a number of years.

Re: It's ok, there are non car options..

Steve Button

What!? You can't just stamp your feet and demand something, and mummy and daddy will sort it out for you?

Re: It's ok, there are non car options..

BinkyTheMagicPaperclip

The reports aren't really helping. We all know that the only reason for a report is to remove the government's excuses : they know very well their plan is rubbish, but that a proper approach is a vote loser.

Friends of the Earth and the Good Law Project are challenging the government's Net Zero strategy (again) because it's clearly utter nonsense. Difference this is likely to make : minimal.

Re: It's ok, there are non car options..

cyberdemon

Yes, you could buy an electric bike, if you a) have a shed to put it in where it won't get nicked and won't burn your house down if/when the battery explodes (yes, insurers are cottoning on to this, too)

and b) you don't mind the extra risk to yourself by travelling unprotected from collisions with 2-ton EVs driven by rich tw*ts who have little regard for your life because you're soft and light enough not to dent their battery

Or, you could just walk to work, the shops, your dentist etc because they are all going to be 15 minutes away, and the ones in your neighbourhood are going to be just as good as the ones in the nice neighbourhood..!

Re: It's ok, there are non car options..

elsergiovolador

Or, you could just walk to work, the shops, your dentist etc because they are all going to be 15 minutes away, and the ones in your neighbourhood are going to be just as good as the ones in the nice neighbourhood..!

This is still a real problem today. If you live in a poor neighbourhood and want to buy better food or even things like good shoes, you have to go to a different neighbourhood. Shops in your own area might not stock these products, either due to lack of demand or fears of theft. Of course, you can order online, but then people wonder why the high street is dying.

Re: It's ok, there are non car options..

cyberdemon

> Of course, you can order online

And your online shopping is delivered by..?

Oh yes, a Diesel powered van because even the greenwash-happy corporates have started to realise that their electric vans don't last very long before they conk out and take ages to charge, and time is money

Re: It's ok, there are non car options..

Steve Button

My wife recently got one. she has a bad knee, and the normal bike was getting too much. It stays on eco mode most of the time.

She loves it. It's great. It stays locked in the garage at night. We have a decent (ish) cycling infrastructure around here, so mostly off road. Around Christmas time it's the *only* way to get into town, unless you want to sit in traffic for ages and then fight for a space.

What's not to like?

Never going to happen in the UK

andy 103

There could be ten times the number of electric cars on the road by 2030

Don't make me laugh.

We haven't even reached the 1 million figure in the UK yet. Precisely because people generally speaking have the common sense to know getting one (even if they could afford one) is a shit idea.

We can't produce the electricity required for the UK even *without* more people having electric vehicles. Add in things like: fires caused by batteries, a lack of charging infrastructure, where to charge the car depending on things such as whether your house has a driveaway etc etc. Then there's the cost.

I recently saw a documentary where a journalist who was a massive proponent of electric vehicles got one, then less than 12 months later gave it back on the basis it was an awful experience. The reality of charging a car for 30-40 times how long it takes to fill up with a bit of fuel just isn't common sense.

Ironically it doesn't really matter about the environment. Producing electricity - and all of the infrastructure changes necessary - for this "revolution" isn't environmentally friendly.

Yes we ought to think about an alternative to petrol/diesel. But electric vehicles in their current form are so far off the mark.

Re: Never going to happen in the UK

Doctor Syntax

"Yes we ought to think about an alternative to petrol/diesel."

True. But I've no idea what it might be.

Re: Never going to happen in the UK

elsergiovolador

Someone will inevitably come bragging about "solid state battery from Toyota" that is just around the corner, because they've seen a YouTube video.

It will change everything apparently.

Re: Never going to happen in the UK

blackcat

Fusion is just around the corner too!

Re: Never going to happen in the UK

Andy Non

"getting one (even if they could afford one) is a shit idea."

The stepson bought an EV, but has since sold it and gone back to petrol, citing lack of infrastructure, needing to plan long journeys around charging stations only to get there and find they either aren't working or there is a long, time consuming, queue. The final straw he got a parking fine for charging up his car "out of opening hours" in a supermarket car park.

NIMBY

Marty McFly

Who cares where the electricity comes from? As long as I can drive down the road with my head held high above all the noxiously polluting internal combustion vehicles. I really don't care if it comes from a coal plant that I cannot see and is in someone else's back yard.

Re: NIMBY

cyberdemon

You'll be fine if your backyard is purloined to house the 132kV substation needed to bring that power from the coal plant or wind turbine in the other guy's back yard then?

Mind you...

xyz

Given MS's desire for constant bloatware-age, by 2030, Teams will probably use more electricity than an EV.

Re: Mind you...

Wally Dug

By 2030, Teams will be fully AI-based and will type what you're thinking even before you've thought it.

Re: Mind you...

Steve Button

I knew you were going to say that.

Re: Mind you...

elsergiovolador

The work day of 2030:

8:00 - wake up, brush teeth, shower

8:15 - eat your insect meal allowance

8:30 - check your social credit score

9:00 - turn on your laptop, log it in to work.

9:15 - hop on the treadmill to generate electricity while AI does the work for you

12:30 - take a break, eat another insect meal allowance

1:30 - hop on the treadmill

2:00 - attend the daily mandatory "Appreciate Our Overlords" webinar

2:30 - drink a cup of recycled water, fresh from your personal dehumidifier

3:00 - answer any emails the AI deemed "too human" to handle

4:00 - engage in "free time" inside your 2m x 2m personal leisure cube

5:00 - dinner: a surprise insect dish! (Spoiler: It's crickets. Again.)

6:00 - mandatory VR social hour to maintain "healthy" human interactions

7:00 - watch the government-approved daily news roundup

8:00 - partake in the national anthem sing-along, broadcasted live

8:30 - update your daily thought log to ensure compliance

9:00 - prepare for bed with a night-time relaxation drill

10:00 - lights out and dream moderation begins! Sweet controlled dreams!

Re: Mind you...

cyberdemon

Sigh.

Roll on, WWIII

Anonymous Coward

If anyone hasn't figured this out yet, let me spell it out. Personal, long distance transportation is set to become a thing of the past for anyone outside of the 1% in the West.

Steve Button

I wonder if this is one of those conspiracy theories which actually turns out to be true?

Right now I'm only far enough down the rabbit hole to think it's just a wet dream of Klaus Schwab and it's not really going to happen. Wouldn't the 99% rebel at that point?

blackcat

The 99% have been pretty quiet so far and where they have voiced their opinion (Oxford LTN, London ULEZ) they are tarred as 'far right' and a rent-a-mob of screeching idiots gets bussed in to shout them down.

BinkyTheMagicPaperclip

Those initiatives are not widely impacting people - there are other roads to use in Oxford LTN, and for ULEZ a large proportion of cars are exempt.

It'd be a completely different matter if a substantial proportion of people were effectively prevented from owning a car.

Whether it is a definite plot by the 1%, or an exercise in policies that are unlikely to be implemented any time so the people at the top can continue business as usual is a question..

The reason they're called wisdom teeth is that the experience makes you wise.