Not even the ghost of obsolescence can coerce users onto Windows 11
- Reference: 1696518974
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2023/10/05/win_11_penetration_still_low/
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The end of Windows 10 support is getting closer. Unless the company blinks, October 14, 2025, will be the end of the line for the Home and Pro editions of the operating system, yet users seem reluctant to move on to Windows 11.
There was a marked reluctance by users to move from Windows 7, back in the day, but some of the reasons for hesitancy this time are different.
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The move to Windows 10 usually required the purchase of new hardware. It tended to be unavoidable – 7 could run on far lower-spec devices than later versions. The move from Windows 10 to Windows 11 will also require new hardware, but for different reasons.
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Infamously, Microsoft axed support for a raft of hardware with Windows 11, including older Intel CPUs, on security grounds. The result was that hardware that will run Windows 10 perfectly well will not accept the new operating system. And this is not due to performance problems (who remembers trying to run Vista on XP hardware?) but rather because of Microsoft's edict.
The result? A collective shrug from PC users. Windows 10 does the job. Why upgrade?
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The figures speak for themselves. Windows 10 dominates the desktop. According to Statcounter, the worldwide Windows version desktop market share puts Windows 10 at 71.64 per cent, with Windows 11 trailing at 23.61 percent.
To put that in context, Windows 11 was launched two years ago today. Windows 10 was launched in 2015 and took two years to reach the same market share as the then-dominant player, Windows 7. Windows 11? Not quite.
Another measure from Lansweeper, based on [5]research from over 14 million devices, puts Windows 10 installed on 80.56 percent of devices and Windows 11 on just 8.35 per cent.
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Two years after Windows 11's launch, it is clear that it still trails Windows 10 by an impressive amount.
[7]Ex-Microsoft maverick takes us on a trip through vintage Task Manager code
[8]AMD graphics card users report gremlins with Windows 11
[9]From frying Panos into the Fire? Amazon confirms hiring of Microsoft veteran
[10]It looks like you're a developer. Would you like help upgrading Windows 11?
However, while Windows 11 itself is not much of a carrot, the impending demise of Windows 10 is undoubtedly a stick, and hardware manufacturers are rubbing their hands with glee in the knowledge that enterprises, at least, must plan to refresh their fleets.
Sure, the economic situation might have resulted in the extension of the device lifespans – a decent CPU coupled with an SSD is more than enough for most productivity applications – but an end to updates, no matter how artificial, means a hardware refresh is likely unavoidable.
Hardware makers are, unsurprisingly, pretty happy about the impending demise of Windows 10.
At 2023's Canalys Channel Forum, Luca Rossi, senior veep at Lenovo and boss of the Intelligent Devices Group, said: "In 2024/2025 you have Windows 10 End of Life. Typically this drives a lot of demand in the commercial space. You have adoption of Windows 11 from the corporates, you have the traditional three-year replacement cycle that is now starting from a much bigger install base that has happened during COVID.
"And then AI PC will probably be the other elements to drive a more sustained demand in 2024/25."
After all, it is impossible to talk about tech in 2023 and not mention AI.
Data published by Lansweeper this week – based on an estimated 33 million Windows devices – found that just over 32 percent of the hardware would be seen as unsuitable for the upgrade by Microsoft. This is an improvement over the [11]42 percent of a year ago but hardly cause for celebration. The increase is likely due to new devices seeping into the system.
However, that growth of adoption will need to accelerate markedly if Windows 11 is to become dominant by the time Windows 10 drops out of support.
With Windows 10, Microsoft quietly [12]pushed out upgrades to users on earlier versions. Thanks to its hardware requirements, Microsoft has made things trickier for itself this time around. ®
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[7] https://www.theregister.com/2023/10/04/task_manager_inner_world/
[8] https://www.theregister.com/2023/10/03/amd_graphics_users_report_problems/
[9] https://www.theregister.com/2023/09/28/from_frying_panos_to_the/
[10] https://www.theregister.com/2023/09/27/it_looks_like_youre_a/
[11] https://www.theregister.com/2022/10/10/windows_11_adoption/
[12] https://www.theregister.com/2015/09/10/windows_10_forced_download/
[13] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
Forced upgrade even of machines that pass checks?
My old i7 is still going great guns, and my computer passes all of the Windows 11 requirements including the TPM security model, but the upgrade checker still says "Processor not currently supported for Windows 11". "Currently" - as in, may be in the future? Seems like they are just trying to force upgrades. Either they will have to allow people like me to upgrade or they will continue to support Win 10 - at least, thats what I think. I'm sure there are many people in my position.
Hanging on as long as possible.
I have a fast PC with a great graphics card. Windows artificial hardware block means I can't upgrade to 11. Having used 11 on another machine I find it horrible, even after several registry hacks to make it more palatable, it is still a pain in the butt. So I'll be hanging on to 10 as long as possible. I may finally start to search for Linux alternatives to the two Windows based apps that consider essential.
Re: Hanging on as long as possible.
The more Microsoft managers scheme to force people to upgrade (netting them another Windows install fee) the more Linux will be installed on older desktop PC'S and the more people gain experience using it and the bigger the chances the flock will jump ship.
Windows 11 itself is not much of a carrot
That's a pity. It would be nice if it were to be of use as something.
That said, it's a sad end: there are some technical merits to Windows, but none that I can't do without in the face of the increasing drawbacks.
How long?
Windows 10 may be just over a year away from the ax, but its successor, Windows 11, appears to be as unpopular as ever.
The end of Windows 10 support is getting closer. Unless the company blinks, October 14, 2025, will be the end of the line for the Home and Pro editions of the operating system
On my planet, it's currently October 2023.
So, two years.
I'm sure AI has some use somewhere .....
.... but likely not in your average office user (says he typing this on a M2 MacBook which has an ML processor). So far on my corporate PC, I have experienced editing Word documents on web view on MS 365, while battling the popups suggesting how to fix my grammar, maybe in much the same way as Grammarly (hence icon). It's annoying and got turned off pretty quick. Likewise Bing Search ..... I'd like to know the search results, not have a conversation with an Eliza-style machine about nothing in particular. I'm really not against change, and in fact I think Decision Engines are pretty damn smart, but please vendors do not lob in AI/ML just because the suits tell you to. Or at least put the result out to beta test users first, to get their reaction good or bad.
In fact, just by a MacBook with Apple silicon to replace your PC. It's streets faster, even if it is quite expensive. As said, it has ML if you want/need that sort of thing, which I guess is why PC manufacturers are doing it.
Re: I'm sure AI has some use somewhere .....
Ah yes, MacBooks where you have to buy a whole new machine because one small part of it broke and the Apple approved repair people tell you it's busted and you just need to replace it. See Louis Rossmann's many videos on the subject for examples of this happening.
Annoyances
Got windows 11 on a work PC now
Seems to be spending time fighting againt it - so many things are a pain, the most annoying the forced location of the task bar - I know there are probably hacks etc.. around being able to change it, though this is a work PC so there's a limit to what I can do to it (and also corporate policy restrictions). I prefer to have the start bar on the side but no, microsoft says I'm not allowed to do that with the default install of windows 11.
So my own PC, I'm waiting for something better to come along (new framework laptop when it arrives will have linux), gaming PC will be sticking to windows - maybe windows 12 will be better.
Advert
I hope when the day comes that Microsoft announces the cease of support for Windows 10 the organization behind Linux Mint will run full-page ads in newspapers to invite users to ditch Windows and to install their operating system to safe their PC's from the dumpster bin.
If there's a large uptick of Linux desktop installations I foresee Microsoft quickly extending support for Windows 10 by at least 3 years in the hope that the threat will have subsided by then. In the mean time they'll try the same carrot-and-stick approach they successfully used to subdue Corel Linux twenty years ago.