Microsoft will try but it won't be the world-replacing product that they wish for. After all, Chromebook already exists and is a cloud-based system and look, it does not dominate the laptop market - the major reason that Chromebook has the market share it does, as of 2021 at 10.8%, is because of the education market.

People already have a choice of going with a cloud-based OS, and overwhelmingly when given their own choice in the matter , prefer their OS on their own bare metal.

That doesn't mean that Microsoft's idea is a dead-end: what it MEANS, reading through the lines, is that MS wants a slice of Alphabet's educational market cloud services pie. And a big one, if they can help it. 10.8% is still 10.8% that MS *isn't* a part of and that grinds on [any and *all* mega-corp's] plans for world domination.

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And I'll keep say it to the detriment of downvotes but Linux will NEVER dominate on the desktop. It's the APPS people care about, the OS is just the 'enabler', and Linux client-level apps just do NOT measure up to the commercial products that they compete against. I'm sorry, but (for the vast, vast, vast) majority of cases, that is true, has been true for decades, and is why so many people (besides noob-unfriendly learning curve) stay away. Linux developers needs to step up their end user program designs and stop paying so much attention to just the OS, as the OS is but one of many decision points in a potential user/buyer's decision on what system they use.

"It's the APPS people care about"

Read your first part again. Those people using Chromebooks and Google online services are not caring about using Microsoft's apps.

The home users I know with W10 are also not paying Microsoft whatever it is a year to run Office 365, they're using one of the several alternatives.

When it comes to having to fork out money it's not APPS people care about it's FUNCTIONALITY. They're discovering they don't need MS Office to provide that functionality. By your own argument if they don't need Microsoft for the functionality they don't need it to provide the OS because those alternative apps all run on Linux as does much else. Why should their next desktop OS not be Zorin, Mint or whatever? It doesn't need to be Windows any more.

You missed my point but made it with your discussion, which is correct: it IS about functionality. That's WHY people care about what applications they can run versus what OS is doing it. At least for the most part: for example, when people choose MacOS they then consider what applications they will / can be using and then decide that their choice of hardware / OS-pairing is acceptable.

Those people using Chromebooks and Google online services are not caring about using Microsoft's apps.

Exactly. A large majority of Microsoft's Office users are...surprisingly...office workers. Who knew?? Mom and Pop end users don't have MS Office on their radar when they pick their new computer, "But honey, will it run Office?" isn't a common discussion. In the U.S., "Will it run TurboTax?" is a much more common concern, never mind "But how does it do when I'm on the internet?", "Will Joe Jr. be able to do his homework?", "Will it run my games?", and of course cost.

Business users are the main user of Office, and switching to Linux isn't even on the radar because of a combination of lost productivity during the switch, retraining concerns, and support questions.

I'm terribly, terribly sorry for your Linux fanaticism, but 3% of the desktop market after DECADES of trying PROVES my point. You people keep pushing and pushing and pushing the OS as if it's the savior for the average person, yet 3% market is proof that THEY DON'T CARE. They care about functionality, compatibility and support, plus a few other topics, and Linux simply can't do that for Joe Average, no matter how much you've promised that (yet failed to deliver) for decades.

A constant stream of new kernels to follow and decide if you want / need to update to; an overwhelming choice of distros to figure out based upon what functions & hardware support it provides; a learning curve that only directs you to user forum boards in hopes of finding a friendly helping hand; applications that not only have unfamiliar user paradigms but less functionality and questionable compatibility with what most other people are using...

Unix-based users JUST DON'T GET IT. Unix was hyped for the desktop...it failed (Apple's adoption of BSD, and their taming of it for the Average Joe, aside). Linux fails because of the same ARROGANCE that users want the 'superiority' of Unix / Linus OS, but then have to sacrifice on end-user application functionality and friendliness. Get a grip, they won't make that compromise - and HAVEN'T, for DECADES - but nothing changes with the Linux crowd. They're wrong, you're right, but then you wonder how your Pet Baby never gets the desktop respect you think it deserves, because "Unix!". Average Joe ALREADY has a choice for Unix-system stability - it's called MacOS - and people attuned to that go there, with far more support, far more polish, and a joyous user learning curve and end-user experience. Linux, as it stands , doesn't stand a chance against that - that can change, but hasn't, for decades.

> I'm terribly, terribly sorry for your Linux fanaticism, but 3% of the desktop market after DECADES of trying PROVES my point.

Um, no it doesn't, and shouting doesn't make it any more true.

Bottom line: people use Windows because that's what they get pre-installed on their (consumer or business) machine. And they're not going change OS even if they know they can (which the vast majority probably don't), because they have no motivation, nor the tech knowledge* to do so. It really is as simple as that. The same holds for Linux. It's not going to gain a substantial slice of the desktop market until such time (if ever, and for whatever reason) as it is comes pre-installed on commercially-marketed consumer machines. The same has been true of Windows, MacOS and ChromeOS, and indeed iOS and Android in the mobile phone sector. It has virtually nought to do with the quality of the OS or available software.

See also my earlier post below.

* If you thought installing Windows from scratch on a Linux machine was any simpler than the reverse case, I've got news for you...

It won't fly, we can agree on that. But I see many businesses falling for Microsoft's marketing talk...until they start receiving the invoices.

Consumers? No way! They'll all move over to Linux Mint.

Please tell what would Linux domination on the desktop bring to me as a long time Linux user ? Something that I don't have and I've been longing for ?

Mind you, it's going to be a much smaller PC market than the one we have today.

Right until the cloud is penetrated and all their beans get spilled. Then people want to get rid of the raining and dissolving cloud with only one way left :-)

Been saying this for years. Everyone was happy routing their email to their phones via Blackberry. Until Blackberry went down for a week or so, and the company never recovered from the loss of business that ensued.

Cloudflare is the one that might be the straw that breaks the camel's back, every time they have an outage most of the internets most popular sites go too.

because it makes it easier to block all the bloated services they keep adding to Windows.

Is this Poe's law at work?

At Microsoft, we believe that the cloud will power the work of the future

And will be until the fashion is for taking it back in house because of security/privacy problems with cloud services and we'll bounce between 1 user, 1 machine and servers with many users again and again just like we have done before. The personal machines may be in your pocket or clothes or head in the future, but they'll be the new thing until they're the old thing and everyone switches back to running everything in the service fog.

[Yes, I'm old. Just call me Koheleth, or Ἐκκλησιαστής if you prefer Greek.]

"or head in the future"

I think this could be Microsoft's head in the clouds moment.

…locally like an Xbox sandbox. Games and Desktops generally don’t exist at the same time…

Now you may say, "There's no way I'm going to 'subscribe' to a cloud version of Windows." Really? Tell me, are you running Office 2019/2021 or Microsoft 365 (formerly Office 365) at a cost of at least $70 a year? 345 million of you are already paying for Microsoft 365. The various flavors of Office 20xx? Not so many. Nothing like as many.

Various friends who now have W10 are not paying $70 or anything else to Microsoft to run Office. They have found other, free equivalent applications. And me personally? I'm running LibreOffice on Linux.

I am helping/telling people to install LibreOffice on their MS Windows boxes. It does what they want. The operating system is not important to them, the only other tool that most of them use is a web browser.

Some ask for help to install Linux (I suggest Mint). Typically older machines where the version of MS Windows is no longer supported.

Small numbers: but others see what is happening and follow suite. When MS starts charging real money more will move.

I do warn that there is a cost: go and get a couple of memory sticks and do backups.

So Linux wins by default?

As it happens, yesterday I created a Windows 11 VM on this iMac.

My 'main' version of Windows is on a HP PC.

I used the same Microsoft/Windows ID on both versions of Windows ( as proven by the fact that they both use the same mugshot of me ).

What surprised me was that several G worth of folders/files etc. were copied from the PC version to the iMac without my even thinking of asking.

Presumably that was done via OneDrive.

Serious question :

could it possibily be that folders supposedly on my own hardware are actually stored/maintained on OneDrive ?

No, they are not.

“could it possibily be that folders supposedly on my own hardware are actually stored/maintained on OneDrive ?”

It depends on how you have configured onedrive - accept it’s default setup and you’ll find your Documents folder (and many others) are being synced to onedrive - and will appear on any new machine you configure with the same account. Still held locally, but also available in the cloud.

Last time I looked Office 2019 was the last version you could install on your own computer.

Isn't everyone (at least consumers) using LibreOffice already? I am loath to pay Microsoft one iota for Office. It's a complete rip-off. That application was finished decades ago and they're only bolting on features that are hip. The last version starred Cloud connectivity.

I hear the next version of Office will have ChatGPT-like AI built-in to scam you into buying yet-one-more version of Office.

I have Office Pro Plus 2021 installed on my machines.

Grey Market Licences are nice. :)

People developing internet destinations have an innate bias toward trying make that sure they have iron-clad control of those destinations. So they have designed systems that work like home-owners' associations, which require anyone who lives there to cede a substantial portion of their rights to that organization. In some destinations, you aren't even allowed to own the property. It is only leased to the occupants.

This works only if the destination is so compelling, that most people are willing to buy in. If either the destination is insufficiently unique, or the relationship requires cedeing too much control, then buyers will vote with their feet, and not participate.

In my estimation, we are nearing that last condition, but have not quite gotten there yet. Developers will always continue to try to get purchasers to cede more and more control. They will dance on the edge of that knife ad infinitum , because it is in their interest to do so.

It's a 'boiling frog' question. Will this strategy will lead to a rebellion, or total control of the end user? Understanding the Dunning-Kruger curve, I am not optimistic about the former outcome.

> That's not because suddenly, everyone will realize that the Linux desktop is wonderful. Sorry, folks, if it hasn't happened by now, it never will.

No indeed, and it's worth bearing in mind that that's certainly not how Windows gained hegemony in the desktop PC arena. They did that by making sharp deals with the PC hardware industry - you simply got MS Windows pre-installed as the OS that came with the PC (and later laptop) you bought from any major consumer outlet. Likewise in the workplace, it was simply on every machine that your company purchased. Whether you liked it or not -- let alone thought it was "wonderful" -- was a non-question. And the average consumer (or indeed business user) would most likely have no idea that alternatives were even available (not that they would be motivated to change for change's sake anyway).

The same will be true of Linux; it will never gain widespread traction in the consumer market until such time as it is routinely pre-installed on consumer PCs/laptops; and like MS Windows, it's wonderfulness or lack thereof will not be the issue. Whether this happens as suggested by the article -- through MS relinquishing the market (and failing to take their entire consumer base into cloud-cuckoo land with them) remains to be seen. I can, though, imagine a world where the (diminished) desktop-PC-as-we-know-it world becomes a Linux-dominated one, with major PC manufacturers/vendors bundling pre-installed, possibly Windows-like, bespoke Linux editions, with support. Perhaps even, with the overt co-operation of Microsoft, as thin-client gateway machines to the MS cloud...

I've left Apple -- and desktop gaming -- out of this discussion. The former will maintain a core/niche support of graphics/media bods plus people who genuinely do think it's wunnerful. As for the latter, I'm really not sure. I've never been a gamer so am not sure which way that market is moving. But if MS are really getting out of the traditional desktop market, another OS will need to take up that slack - and I don't see any alternatives to Linux there.

If Windows is "in the cloud", what did people buy to access it?

There's a lot more than just the "OS" to think about. There are all the partner relationships (the monopoly) you have consider as well.

I mean, does the future hold a whole lot of cheap Chromebooks?

What about enthusiasts, creators, gamers?

While Windows in the cloud is a good idea, it isn't going to displace Windows on end devices, probably not ever.