Defense boffins take notes from sci-fi writers on the future of warfare
(2023/03/02)
- Reference: 1677767585
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2023/03/02/scifi_mod/
- Source link:
As the arch-nerd hangout of the web, we love a bit of sci-fi here at The Register , so imagine our surprise when we heard that the UK Ministry of Defence has tapped the writing talents of sometime collaborators PW Singer and August Cole.
It's true that politicians are often lacking in the imagination department. Even so, for every [1]bumbling Matt Hancock in government, we'd hope there are actual boffins close by sighing and preventing real catastrophe.
In the case of the MoD, it's Dame Angela McLean, the department's Chief Scientific Adviser and a professor of mathematical biology at Oxford University. Her government role is to direct the ministry's research portfolio, and on that basis she observed that the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl) could do worse than take notes from some celebrated futurists.
[2]
"The world-class teams at Dstl work with the top minds from across military, academia, industry… and now science fiction," she said, [3]announcing the project .
[4]
[5]
"The writers of this genre have been years ahead of their time in predicting the modern world around us from the internet and mobile phones to the electric submarine and driverless cars.
"Defence needs to harness the creativity and vision of this sector to further stimulate foresight and innovation to develop agile and resilient solutions for the future."
[6]
Singer and Cole, both American, are not just sci-fi novelists but have been variously described as political scientists, international relations scholars, and defense industry journalists. Together they published Ghost Fleet , about a post-communist China crippling the US with cyberwarfare, and Burn-In , which follows the AI-assisted hunt for a techno-terrorist. Both have been noted for how they address nonfiction concerns in a medium able to entertain and educate.
The duo brewed up eight short stories, [7]collected here , covering the various "emerging technologies and threats that may arise during the next 20 years" on behalf of Dstl.
In A Glimmer of Hope , a Royal Marine recounts a disastrous battle after the loss of "quantum advantage," A Model Peace examines the power that data-harvesting organizations might wield in the future, Silent Skies collects reports from the aftermath of a drone swarm attack on London, and The Solstice Cup follows enhanced supersoldiers engaged in a breakneck hockey match.
[8]OpenAI CEO heralds AGI no one in their right mind wants
[9]I can't do that, Dave: AI drowns top sci-fi mag with story submissions
[10]Microsoft's new AI BingBot berates users and can't get its facts straight
[11]China reportedly producing quantum computers – good luck observing one
Other tales explore the future of AI, supercomputing, a net-zero world, and more – all within a military context.
Sarah Herbert, Defence Science and Technologies Futures program manager, commented: "We are always looking for science and technology that will meet the challenges of generation after next threats.
[12]
"In our choice of authors we have a unique combination of literary skills and defence expertise that can help us glimpse what the future may hold.
"This project is one of many innovative ways we strive to keep people safe and give our armed forces a strategic advantage."
Anyway, that's your lunchtime/bedtime reading sorted. The Reg's take is that, while fascinating concepts, it's a little bit Call of Duty , which Singer worked on as a consultant, in that the tech timelines seem optimistic (or pessimistic – a lot of it is used to kill people).
We cover high technology – that we're allowed to know about – on an almost daily basis, and some seems either eternally in development or hopelessly crap. Still, we see the benefits of defense researchers being presented with scenarios they may not have otherwise considered.
Drop your reviews in the comments. ®
Get our [13]Tech Resources
[1] https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/01/isabel-oakeshott-the-journalist-who-turned-over-matt-hancock
[2] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2ZADWNVuonBNJrR4nfuK7gQAAAA0&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[3] https://www.gov.uk/government/news/futuristic-visions-from-sci-fi-writers-offer-insights-for-defence
[4] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44ZADWNVuonBNJrR4nfuK7gQAAAA0&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[5] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33ZADWNVuonBNJrR4nfuK7gQAAAA0&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[6] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44ZADWNVuonBNJrR4nfuK7gQAAAA0&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[7] https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/stories-from-the-future-exploring-new-technology-through-useful-fiction/stories-from-tomorrow-exploring-new-technology-through-useful-fiction#a-glimmer-of-hope
[8] https://www.theregister.com/2023/02/27/openai_ceo_agi/
[9] https://www.theregister.com/2023/02/22/clarkesworld_ai_spam/
[10] https://www.theregister.com/2023/02/17/microsoft_ai_bing_problems/
[11] https://www.theregister.com/2023/02/02/china_quantum_computers/
[12] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33ZADWNVuonBNJrR4nfuK7gQAAAA0&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[13] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
It's true that politicians are often lacking in the imagination department. Even so, for every [1]bumbling Matt Hancock in government, we'd hope there are actual boffins close by sighing and preventing real catastrophe.
In the case of the MoD, it's Dame Angela McLean, the department's Chief Scientific Adviser and a professor of mathematical biology at Oxford University. Her government role is to direct the ministry's research portfolio, and on that basis she observed that the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl) could do worse than take notes from some celebrated futurists.
[2]
"The world-class teams at Dstl work with the top minds from across military, academia, industry… and now science fiction," she said, [3]announcing the project .
[4]
[5]
"The writers of this genre have been years ahead of their time in predicting the modern world around us from the internet and mobile phones to the electric submarine and driverless cars.
"Defence needs to harness the creativity and vision of this sector to further stimulate foresight and innovation to develop agile and resilient solutions for the future."
[6]
Singer and Cole, both American, are not just sci-fi novelists but have been variously described as political scientists, international relations scholars, and defense industry journalists. Together they published Ghost Fleet , about a post-communist China crippling the US with cyberwarfare, and Burn-In , which follows the AI-assisted hunt for a techno-terrorist. Both have been noted for how they address nonfiction concerns in a medium able to entertain and educate.
The duo brewed up eight short stories, [7]collected here , covering the various "emerging technologies and threats that may arise during the next 20 years" on behalf of Dstl.
In A Glimmer of Hope , a Royal Marine recounts a disastrous battle after the loss of "quantum advantage," A Model Peace examines the power that data-harvesting organizations might wield in the future, Silent Skies collects reports from the aftermath of a drone swarm attack on London, and The Solstice Cup follows enhanced supersoldiers engaged in a breakneck hockey match.
[8]OpenAI CEO heralds AGI no one in their right mind wants
[9]I can't do that, Dave: AI drowns top sci-fi mag with story submissions
[10]Microsoft's new AI BingBot berates users and can't get its facts straight
[11]China reportedly producing quantum computers – good luck observing one
Other tales explore the future of AI, supercomputing, a net-zero world, and more – all within a military context.
Sarah Herbert, Defence Science and Technologies Futures program manager, commented: "We are always looking for science and technology that will meet the challenges of generation after next threats.
[12]
"In our choice of authors we have a unique combination of literary skills and defence expertise that can help us glimpse what the future may hold.
"This project is one of many innovative ways we strive to keep people safe and give our armed forces a strategic advantage."
Anyway, that's your lunchtime/bedtime reading sorted. The Reg's take is that, while fascinating concepts, it's a little bit Call of Duty , which Singer worked on as a consultant, in that the tech timelines seem optimistic (or pessimistic – a lot of it is used to kill people).
We cover high technology – that we're allowed to know about – on an almost daily basis, and some seems either eternally in development or hopelessly crap. Still, we see the benefits of defense researchers being presented with scenarios they may not have otherwise considered.
Drop your reviews in the comments. ®
Get our [13]Tech Resources
[1] https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/01/isabel-oakeshott-the-journalist-who-turned-over-matt-hancock
[2] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2ZADWNVuonBNJrR4nfuK7gQAAAA0&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[3] https://www.gov.uk/government/news/futuristic-visions-from-sci-fi-writers-offer-insights-for-defence
[4] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44ZADWNVuonBNJrR4nfuK7gQAAAA0&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[5] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33ZADWNVuonBNJrR4nfuK7gQAAAA0&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[6] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44ZADWNVuonBNJrR4nfuK7gQAAAA0&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[7] https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/stories-from-the-future-exploring-new-technology-through-useful-fiction/stories-from-tomorrow-exploring-new-technology-through-useful-fiction#a-glimmer-of-hope
[8] https://www.theregister.com/2023/02/27/openai_ceo_agi/
[9] https://www.theregister.com/2023/02/22/clarkesworld_ai_spam/
[10] https://www.theregister.com/2023/02/17/microsoft_ai_bing_problems/
[11] https://www.theregister.com/2023/02/02/china_quantum_computers/
[12] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33ZADWNVuonBNJrR4nfuK7gQAAAA0&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[13] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
Re: Don't bomb it, buy it.
Roland6
US foreign policy that emerged from the Nixon era, encouraged the likes of McD’s to set up in Russia and China.
It does seem that Trump and his allies actually want to go back to pre-Nixon times with respect to trade and relations with Russia and China.
Look up David Drake's "Hammers Slammers"
Gerlad Dreisewerd
This is not a particularly new idea. Davis Drake's "Hammers Slammers" has been quietly driving development in the defense industry decades. Some things are plainly fanciful but a lot is readily achievable.
"It's true that politicians are often lacking in the imagination department."
Arthur the cat
I'd disagree. A lot of them seem to have very vivid imaginations combined with an utter failure to grasp reality.
See also: back doors in encrypted communications only available to "good" guys.
united Kingdom's very own
Fr. Ted Crilly
'Dreamer Fithp' threat team eh...
'they're the only experts we have.'
Re: united Kingdom's very own
Peter2
'they're the only experts we have.'
We actually have a staggering variety of experts. The problem is that any group of people who've done something for their entire career tend to get locked into various patterns of thought (groupthink) and an outside view occasionally challenging things that have been "settled" leads to new thought in various directions.
Singer and Cole, both American
Anonymous Coward
...so the new Niven & Pournelle then?
"More bombs, Dame Angela?"
"Don't mind if I do!"
anonymous boring coward
What, the Tory politicians need a vision? Something to actually strive for, other than making money for themselves and their buddies?
I suppose they will go for a typical dystopian one then, which seems to be what they most enjoy.
Don't bomb it, buy it.
What do aggressors in wars want? The short answer is to occupy, to own and to subjugate. One most disadvantageous side effect of war is that it tends to destroy much of what one side wants to conquer, and what the other wants to retain.
Surely a better way to grow an aspiring conqueror's empire is through acquisition rather than fighting? It takes longer, but the target remains intact.
For example, the americans bought Alaska from Russia in 1867 for $7.2 million - about $145 million in 2023 dollars. Compare that with the $750 billion spent on bombing the crap out of Iraq.
While countries or territories are rarely up for sale, they are not generally what is valued. That would be the things on the land, or under it (resources). And those can be bought for much cheaper than the cost of even a small war.