Italy, Japan, UK to jointly launch sixth-gen fighter jet by 2035
- Reference: 1670607310
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2022/12/09/gcap/
- Source link:
It's understood at least some of these capabilities will include AI, specifically inside the cockpit of the new fighter jet, where virtual reality, artificial intelligence and haptics may be used to aid the pilot.
In a [1]joint statement alluding to increasing global tensions, the trio stated: "We are announcing the Global Combat Air Program (GCAP) – an ambitious endeavor to develop a next-generation fighter aircraft by 2035."
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The UK, Japan and Italy added that "threats and aggression are increasing" and they were "sharing the costs and the benefits of this investment in our people and technologies. Importantly, [GCAP] will support the sovereign capability of all three countries to design, deliver and upgrade cutting-edge combat air capabilities, well into the future."
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The "sharing the costs" bit will be important to the UK, which hasn't built a fighter jet alone for quite some time. The UK, Italy and – most recently – [5]Sweden already have a joint effort underway via an existing Future Air Combat System (FCAS) program, known as Tempest, which was developing a stealth fighter jet that will reportedly be capable of carrying hypersonic missiles and controlling swarming drones, with some of the pilot's decision-making being aided by machine learning.
Tempest is planned to include an onboard ability to produce enough electricity to [6]power laser weapons using an advanced propulsion system built by Rolls-Royce. The aircraft engine maker had been working with BAE Systems and Italy's Leonardo on [7]radar/receiver tech as well, with manufacturer MBDA working on the missile systems.
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Japan, on the other hand, has been developing its own home-brewed six-gen stealth fighter, to replace the [9]Mitsubishi F-2 , known as the F-X. It is not known if Sweden will be part of the GCAP effort, whose costs will be in the tens of billions of dollars.
A competing FCAS European consortium, led by France and Germany, are working on their own stealth aircraft, the Dassault/Airbus New Generation Fighter (NGF), slated to be battle-ready by 2040.
UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who is visiting a Royal Air Force base today to launch the first phase, said the country needs "to stay at the cutting-edge of advancements in defence technology – outpacing and out-manoeuvring those who seek to do us harm."
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He added: "The international partnership we have announced today with Italy and Japan aims to do just that, underlining that the security of the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific regions are indivisible. The next-generation of combat aircraft we design will protect us and our allies around the world by harnessing the strength of our world-beating defence industry – creating jobs while saving lives."
The US, China and Russia
The US's sixth generation effort, meanwhile, the Lockheed Martin-developed Next Generation Air Dominance ( [11]NGAD ), will succeed its F-22, and also boasts advanced and never-before-seen capabilities.
All of the international efforts will have an eye on China, whose [12]sixth-generation fighter was on show in November at China's biennial Zhuhai Airshow and accoring to some could be ready by 2026. US Air Force General Mark Kelly has said America needs to "make sure we get to six-gen air dominance at least a month before our competitors," while [13]addressing the Air and Space Forces Association's Air, Space & Cyber Conference earlier this year.
The Russian airforce has encountered various difficulties with its Sukhoi Su-57 (Сухой Су-57) twin-engine stealth multirole fighter, and was exhibiting fifth-gen models at that same Zhuhai airshow.
[14]Are you seeing this, Amazon? British military steps up robot tech tests with drone capable of carrying 60kg payloads
[15]Is it a bird? Is it a plane? No, it's a flying solar panel: BAE Systems' satellite alternative makes maiden flight in Oz
[16]How can airlines stop hackers pwning planes over the air? And don't say 'regular patches'
[17]US Air Force reveals B-21 Raider stealth bomber that'll fly the unfriendly skies
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BAE Systems Full Scale Replica concept model of a Tempest Sixth-Generation future combat aircraft pictured in July 2022 at RAF Fairford, Gloucestershire
A mockup illustration of the upcoming Japan-Italy-UK fighter jet flying in various poses in front of the Palace of Westminster, the Colosseum, and Mount Fuji (below) looks a lot like the concept model for the Tempest project (above), but also looks similar to Dassault/Airbus's NGF. It's also vaguely reminiscent of Extreme Deep Invader (EDI), the futuristic military stealth airplane in the absolutely terrible 2005 movie [19]Stealth , where the fighter jet in question is a drone-like uncrewed air combat vehicle – as opposed to the optionally crewed Tempest.
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Concept art shows what the new fighter jet might look above the Palace of Westminster. Crown copyright
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The Japan-Italy-UK fighter jet hovers above the Colosseum (above) and Mount Fuji (below). All illustrations Crown Copyright
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While various outlets have reported that the upcoming fighter jet will have AI/ML capabilities, it was not immediately clear to The Register that the project would include this aspect of the Tempest program, and how it would be incorporated, as it appears the Tempest and F-X programs would be combined.
The Register has asked the MoD if the new stealth jet will also be "optionally crewed" as the Tempest was slated to be, and if so, how much AI would figure when the pilot's hands are off the wheel, so to speak.
Many a well-equipped, well-resourced technology business has had a few details go wrong with incidental machine learning led features on software deployments, with some of the brightest minds in the industry working for decades on the problem, so... yep, surely the features on the potential military warplane will need no tweaking. What could possibly go wrong? ®
Get our [23]Tech Resources
[1] https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/joint-leaders-statement-uk-italy-japan-9-december-2022
[2] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_security/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2Y5O@EJ0-YXvc41HmBqPriwAAABI&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[3] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_security/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44Y5O@EJ0-YXvc41HmBqPriwAAABI&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[4] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_security/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33Y5O@EJ0-YXvc41HmBqPriwAAABI&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[5] https://theaviationist.com/2021/01/05/italy-united-kingdom-and-sweden-sign-tempest-fcas-cooperation-memorandum-of-understanding/
[6] https://interestingengineering.com/innovation/bae-systems-tests-uks-new-tempest-fighter-jet-in-wind-tunnel
[7] https://www.leonardo.com/en/press-release-detail/-/detail/18-12-2019-tempest-drives-forward-as-leonardo-unveils-new-radar-sensing-technology
[8] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_security/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44Y5O@EJ0-YXvc41HmBqPriwAAABI&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[9] https://www.mhi.com/products/defense/f_2_close_support_fighter.html
[10] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_security/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33Y5O@EJ0-YXvc41HmBqPriwAAABI&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[11] https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/new-next-generation-air-dominance-fighter-renderings-from-lockheed
[12] https://twitter.com/CombatAir/status/1454701892383170562?
[13] https://eurasiantimes.com/china-on-track-to-develop-6th-gen-fighter-us-must-field-its-ngad/
[14] https://www.theregister.com/2020/11/05/royal_marines_navy_drone_trials/
[15] https://www.theregister.com/2020/02/17/bae_systems_phasa_35_maiden_flight/
[16] https://www.theregister.com/2017/11/15/airplanes_vulnerable_rf_hacking/
[17] https://www.theregister.com/2022/12/03/us_air_force_reveals_b21/
[18] https://regmedia.co.uk/2022/12/09/shutterstock_tempest.jpg
[19] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a2PW7a9ViDc&ab_channel=RottenTomatoesClassicTrailers
[20] https://regmedia.co.uk/2022/12/09/stealthjet.jpg
[21] https://regmedia.co.uk/2022/12/09/colosseum_jiustealthjet.jpg
[22] https://regmedia.co.uk/2022/12/09/fuji_stealthjet.jpg
[23] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
Re: Promising precedent
And, as another plus for a collaborative fighter project, the French aren't involved.
Re: Promising precedent
Because the French know they can do a better one in half the time and for a fraction of the budget.
"What could possibly go wrong?"
In a documentary concerning the current F35 fighter, one of the RAF people claimed that human pilots in combat fighters would be phased out as simulations of computer piloted aircraft vs human piloted ones were 'not pretty'. I would like to claim that we won't need new fighter (or bomber) aircraft, as humans the world over will be in peaceful co-existence by 2035, but current experience suggests otherwise.
Re: "What could possibly go wrong?"
The advantages of situational awareness by being in the cockpit versus the extra handling capability... Yep, I am inclined to suggest the latter is somewhere you can seek an edge. DCS is quite difficult enough without having your weight multiplied by 9G.
I have no illusions that the career of drone operator is not nearly so glamorous as that of fighter pilot. Removing the human removes the excitement from the tech entirely. But it's probably going to be more effective a warplane - as long as you can keep the cooms loop up.
Re: "What could possibly go wrong?"
I think the bigger factor is that relieved of the necessity for keeping a pilot alive, you can make smaller cheaper drones - but have a lot more of them.
Even if one chooses to believe that given two equal jets, one with a human pilot and one piloted by AI will result in the human winning most of the time, there's no way to extend that claim to fighting off 10x or 50x smaller drones. You could save money on some by dropping stealth, and figuring that numbers will overwhelm missile based air defenses. You could save money on others by dropping supersonic capability, and have a solid rocket booster that can fire for 10 seconds and turn it into an expendable kinetic kill missile.
I see no future for human piloted fighters in 2035, the only reason the US and EU are looking into 6th generation fighters is because the people making those decisions are former pilots who don't want to see the Air Force's studly pilots demoted to video game nerds. But that's the future, whether they like it or not.
You can bet China is pursuing the AI drone swarm technology rather than trying to match the capabilities of our 6th generation fighters.
Re: "What could possibly go wrong?"
But how is the drone pilot supposed to appear enough of a hero to run for office and get further funding
A Quantitative Easing Program in Military Guise?
I think Jackanory sums up extremely well that fantastic development, Jude Karabus.
No monies for welfare and wages and food and heating and homes but billions for a few death and destruction dealing flying machines. Another great plan from the masters of nothing. Bravo.
It most definitely is a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World in Deed indeed.
Re: A Quantitative Easing Program in Military Guise?
Ask the ukranians how much heating they have after their neighbour and their weapons of war kicked the fence down.
Re: A Quantitative Easing Program in Military Guise?
Your point is taken w.r.t. military preparedness - but not necessarily piloted aircraft. From that battlefield, counter attacking drones and missiles would seem to be the equalizer.
Jump Jets Are Go!
Finally, a replacement for the Harrier. I can't wait to see them hovering above a location near to me.
Yay!
Up with the military industrial complex! MOAR PORK!
Let's not think too hard about how we could gainfully apply this kind of funding to, for example, combating global warming or funding schools.
Re: Yay!
or rebuilding ukraine after their warmongering neighbour kicked the shit out of their infrastructure.
Re: Yay!
For good or ill, I think the economic opportunity represented by rebuilding Ukraine plus the opportunity to burnish various organizations' humanitarian credentials will ensure a massive influx of cash and labor into Ukraine. This may be a very good thing for European building and power concerns and help pull the region out of recession. Plus it's a windfall for the military-industrial complex, since they now get to replenish the depleted ammo and weaponry stocks of the various nations which have sent armaments to Ukraine.
To say nothing of the pending boom in the Russian mail-order bride business, what with all the dead Russian men.
It's an ill wind that blows nobody no good.
Old hat?
One hard constraint on piloted flying war machines to date is that they had to return the pilots back home with a "reasonable" success rate.
Drones, either remotely controlled or autonomous, do not have that hard constraint. Even if they are built to be able to return, the penalty for not returning is far less because it does not entail loss of human life. Moreover, as they may be cheaper to manufacture, the penalty for not returning is even less, allowing greater risk taking and therefore a more effective weapon. Cheaper also allows manufacturing higher quantity.
Reading about the F-35, the B-21 and now these new cooperative efforts, I wonder where the news about drone development is. Going through all the effort and expense of developing piloted planes that, just maybe, as an afterthought, will later be able to fly without a pilot, is wrong, very expensive, approach to developing non-piloted aircraft.
I guess the military establishment of the West not really into moving fast and breaking things ... oh wait!
Re: Old hat?
I guess the military establishment of the West not really into moving fast and breaking things ... oh wait!
Breaking budgets is very profitable for the defence industry. Current events should probably give a better sense of priorities though.
So how would a B-21 be used in Ukraine? Ukraine would need to spend a lot of money to buy, fly and maintain them. Not that the US would likely export them to anyone. If Ukraine did have them, the first thing Russia probably would have done is twat the airbases they operate from.
If NATO's operating them, US pilots could fly inside Polish airspace and lob stand-off missiles across the border. If it's lobbing long range missiles from outside hostile airspace, it doesn't really need to be that stealthy. Or it needs to be stealthy across it's entire mission, otherwise hostile nations can jus watch the airbases they're operating from. And if it turns out they aren't really that stealthy, then they're rather pointless.
The US released a video showing racks of cruise missiles being pushed out of a cargo plane recently. That seems a stealthier approach because an enemy wouldn't know if a cargo plane is a bomber. And it's a lot cheaper way to deliver stand-off capability.
What should be pretty obvious is we lack logistics. There's currently a peer-level war. Russia's probably going to win because it seems able to churn out artillery, rockets, missiles and drones far faster than we can. China is probably aware of this and doing the math about responses in Taiwan, if we're out of ammo.
I think the obvious response should be quantity rather than quality. Dump B-21s, build ammo factories. Perhaps make a Unibomb that can be offered in dumb, frag and smart versions. But something that can be fired out of artillery, stuck on a rocket or missile, or slap fins on it and dropped by drone or aircraft. It also looks like we could really do with our own Pantsir-style air defence system so drones or slow missiles could be engaged with guns, and save million-dollar missiles for the harder, more strategic threats.
IOW Another big bag of cash going to Billions Above Estimate.
OTOH it might use engine precooling to up the top speed which means some support for Reaction Engines to (maybe) advance SABRE and Skylon.
BAE will no doubt tell the MoD what it wants hear (as usual) and milk them for however much cash they can get out of them till someone in the MoD wakes up and realizes WTF they want doesn't actually exist
I love advanced tech.
But boy do I hate the idea of any military con-tractor getting money on general principles.
What I really want to know
Will they name the AI? Will they name it Eddie?
Re: What I really want to know
Nope. Try "Hand of Skynet".
Our track record in developing military hardware is patchy. Remember TSR2 anybody? And the recent lightweight tank that morphed into a heavy tank that shook it's crew to bits? Meddling ministers and technically illiterate administrative personnel are the bane of success.
'Meddling ministers'
Yep, also you can be sure all the usual US companies who hope to sell us their latest fighter will be lobbying to try to kill the project. (As apparently, they did to help kill the TSR2)
Promising precedent
The UK and Italy have worked successfully together already on Tornado and then Typhoon (Eurofighter). The UK and Japan have already agreed collaboration on a number or related sub-projects (engines, missile systems). While it's way too early to predict it will be a success, there is no particular reason to predict failure - all three partner nations are really quite good at this stuff.