Musk: Twitter will have 1 billion monthly users inside 18 months
- Reference: 1669645811
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2022/11/28/musk_twitter_slides/
- Source link:
The world's richest man made public a number of [1]slides at the weekend included in his company talk, in which he claimed new user signups in the seven days to November 16 averaged 2 million per day, up 66 percent year-on-year. Further, he said Twitter had recorded 8 billion user active minutes per day for the seven days to November 15, up 30 percent.
"I think I see a path to Twitter exceeding a billion monthly users in 12 to 18 months," Musk [2]said on Twitter in response to an admiring tweet from culture warrior Jordan Peterson.
[3]
According to Reuters, Twitter amassed 238 million users in Q2 so Elon has to think up some pretty attractive propositions to pull in more punters. He may feel the [4]decision to restore suspended accounts , despite previously saying he wouldn't do so until a moderation council was appointed, will help.
[5]
[6]
It might, in the same way drivers sometimes slow their cars on motorways to look at crash victims, but should Twitter be perceived as a temple of trolling then it is unlikely to help solve the financial conundrum facing his Muskiness.
Twitter, he said weeks ago, is [7]losing around $4 million daily and the decision by some advertisers to pause spending on the platform as they assess the direction it is taking is unlikely to help revenues. These include a range of automakers and global brands such as Mondelez, Coca-Cola, Adidas, Hugo Boss, and others.
[8]Twitter CISO flies the coop
[9]Parody Elon Musk Twitter accounts will be suspended immediately, says Elon Musk
[10]Twitter employees sue over lack of 60-day layoff notice
[11]Elon Musk to abused Twitter users: Your tormentors are coming back
The Financial Times [12]wrote at the weekend that numerous advertising agencies and media buyers claimed that many of the big brands they represent had taken a decision to hold off on further Twitter advertising due to Musk's ad-hoc approach to content moderation and his decision to lay off some of Twitter's ad sales team.
Musk, it is claimed, personally called execs at some brands to berate them on their current Twitter ad policy. Yet some advertisers are reportedly struggling to find a point of contact at Twitter, after job cuts, and are unable to get feedback on the impact of previous ad campaigns.
[13]
Also on the slides Musk outlined at the weekend is one that simply says "We're recruiting." This follows some [14]pretty devastating cuts at Twitter that saw workers in multiple departments [15]leave the organization, and a subsequent ultimatum by Musk to engineers to go " [16]hardcore " or go home. ®
Get our [17]Tech Resources
[1] https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1596718851097755648/photo/1
[2] https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1596751751532937217
[3] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/personaltech&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2Y4TpJ3PLr90aKMFdD@1ygwAAAME&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[4] https://www.theregister.com/2022/11/25/twitter_suspeded_account_amnesty/
[5] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/personaltech&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44Y4TpJ3PLr90aKMFdD@1ygwAAAME&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[6] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/personaltech&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33Y4TpJ3PLr90aKMFdD@1ygwAAAME&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[7] https://www.theregister.com/2022/11/09/musk_sells_nearly_4_billion/
[8] https://www.theregister.com/2022/11/10/twitter_ciso_quits/
[9] https://www.theregister.com/2022/11/07/parody_twitter_accounts/
[10] https://www.theregister.com/2022/11/04/twitter_warn_act_lawsuit/
[11] https://www.theregister.com/2022/11/25/twitter_suspeded_account_amnesty/
[12] https://www.ft.com/content/126219c4-5ac0-4c8b-996c-307c24a4cd61?sharetype=blocked
[13] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/personaltech&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44Y4TpJ3PLr90aKMFdD@1ygwAAAME&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[14] https://www.theregister.com/2022/11/07/twitter_recalls_staff/
[15] https://www.theregister.com/2022/11/10/twitter_ciso_quits/
[16] https://www.theregister.com/2022/11/16/musk_twitter_ultimatum/
[17] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
Re: Track record..
Well, if he doesn't care about losing $44Bn, can he chuck a couple of million my way? That's literally pocket change.
Re: Track record..
Twitter is the natural home of YIPs and all things woke. The problem is they are the loudest yell but a small minority. Most people just want to get on with their lives without endless 'you're-guilty-even-if-you-dont-know-it' progressive agendas.
It could be that Twitter gains popularity with the majority of normal people.
(I don't really believe this, Musk has just taken Twitter to the farmer at the end of the lane earlier than its natural demise).....
Re: Track record..
I don't normally wear Adidas. But now that there's a swastika in the retweet of their ad I'm convinced.
Re: Track record..
And the next generation re-discovers Godwins Law...
Re: Track record..
Personally I thought that Gad Saad's analysis of Elon Musk's purchase of Twitter quite interesting
[1]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZKJ272GxLs
[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZKJ272GxLs
Re: Track record..
Still waiting for his self-driving cars to work at something other than killing people.
All you need to know about Elon Musk, narrated by William Shatner.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6gy5P45hEN4
One billion users?
That's one person in eight, globally.
I'm trying hard to think of anyone I know who is a regular user of Twitter, let alone one person in eight, and I live in a first-world supposedly affluent* country. I don't see anyone flocking** to use it, and I seriously doubt that people in the "Global South" are going to prioritise this over struggling to feed themselves, avoid conflict, and cope with climate change, so you can probably rule out a good four billion people there. So the claim here, is that in first-world countries, every fourth man, woman and child, will be actively using Musk's Twitter which is rapidly becoming an ever more toxic wasteland.
His Muskiness really is bananas, isn't he? Has he decided to do the thing he claimed the former owners were guilty of, and count bots as genuine users?
*mis-government aside
**natch
Re: One billion users?
I'm expecting
"I think I see a path to Twitter exceeding a billion monthly users in 12 to 18 months,"
is more like
"I think I see a path to Twitter exceeding a billion monthly bots in 12 to 18 months,"
Re: One billion users?
Took the words right out of my AI algorithm.
2 million sign ups daily average
So,
How many of them are bots?
Since he was making a big deal about bots on twitter, I think that is a fairly important question to be asked.
Re: 2 million sign ups daily average
According to Twitter before the purchase, no more than 5%....
Re: 2 million sign ups daily average
That was the number of bots that were found in manual samples *after* automatic detection of bot accounts had been applied. It said nothing about the total number of bots that signed up.
Re: 2 million sign ups daily average
And having fired both the automatic bot detection team and the manual bot counting team - there are now no bots recorded
Re: 2 million sign ups daily average
Non in acta, non in mundo
Real Twitter news...
Twitter chief executive Elon Musk confirmed plans for end-to-end encryption (E2EE) for direct messages on the platform.
Over at The Hacker News... https://thehackernews.com/2022/11/elon-musk-confirms-twitter-20-will.html
Perhaps this coupled with bans being lifted has attracted new readers?
Now on with the Twitter bashing bash!
Re: Real Twitter news...
Musk was talking about sign-ups, not readers. He was not saying lots of new people followed a link and looked at a page of tweets. For a sign-up, a human or bot came up with a unique user name and something resembling a password then jumped through whatever hoops are required to prove/pretend they are not a bot.
Your reason for them doing so is that end to end encryption has been mentioned but is not yet implemented. Even before I start thinking, that seems fr fetched but lets follow this through. Plenty of people click the 'track my every move and sell my data to anyone who offers a little money' button because it is only one click instead of often two plus a little reading and thinking. None of that crowd are going to make the effort to sign up for your reason. Next up, there are some whose lives depend on their communications remaining private. They will make a proper effort to research the product. With the minimal possible effort they will find "not implemented yet" and move on.
Perhaps one day Musk will say encryption is working. On that day anyone with a clue will find out who provided a billion or more to help Musk buy twitter. That list of names would scare away anyone with a genuine need for private communications.
I prefer some other theories.
1) Musk simply made it up. People have a bad habit of believing what they are told despite evidence to the contrary and doing what they think others are doing. Just by saying people are signing up in droves Musk will convince a bunch of people to sign up.
2) One of Musk's employees made it up to avoid getting fired.
3) Some bot herders are taking the opportunity to create a pile of new accounts while Twitter is too short staffed to stop them.
4) Musk hired some bot herders to create accounts that follow him and like his tweets.
I would believe any of those and a bunch less likely over people making an effort to get encryption that is not yet available.
elon the bot master
And none of them will pay $8. Cause 95% will be bots
The problem with bad journalism
What Musk said:
> "I think I see a path to Twitter exceeding a billion monthly users in 12 to 18 months,"
What El Reg writes:
> Musk: Twitter will have 1 billion monthly users inside 18 months
"Seeing a path" is clearly not the same as "will have". Zero journalistic integrity.
Re: The problem with bad journalism
And to be clear, I have no axe to grind concerning neither Twitter nor Musk. But I very much take issue with misleading, unprofessional journalism.
(I half expect ElReg's reaction is going to be to put this account on their naughty list rather than taking criticism like grown ups)
Re: The problem with bad journalism
That would be Elon's reaction
Re: The problem with bad journalism
> That would be Elon's reaction
That's neither here nor there. But you're quite welcome to show me one account that's been suspended for disagreeing with him.
Re: one account that's been suspended for disagreeing with him.
What about the engineer who was fired for disagreeing with him?
Re: one account that's been suspended for disagreeing with him.
> What about the engineer who was fired for disagreeing with him?
He still has his Twitter account active, as far as I know.
Also, not sure he was fired for disagreeing. He was chided for, in musk's opinion at least, not knowing what was going on behind the scenes when their client makes a request to the server.
Re: The problem with bad journalism
Kathy Griffin
Re: put this account on their naughty list
Could you contemplate getting over yourself for a second?
Re: The problem with bad journalism
> But I very much take issue with misleading, unprofessional journalism.
Especially when it foments hate. I really don't understand what this guy has done that now everyone hates on the bastard. It's clear (to me, at least) that there's a real chance that this might end badly, specifically with physical violence against the person, and "journalists" that irresponsibility help create that sorry of environment with one-sided coverage (presumably because drama sells?) will have a lot to answer for.
Let's get shit back on track, shall we?
Re: The problem with bad journalism
>I half expect ElReg's reaction is going to be to put this account on their naughty list
Do we know of commentards being blocked for a single criticism of ElReg or is that passing swipe itself an example of distortion and a false accusation of committing "cancel culture"? Anyway, don't worry, you weren't logged in.
Re: The problem with bad journalism
> Do we know of commentards being blocked for a single criticism of ElReg
Yes, myself. For responding to an article based on made up facts, which I happened to have personal knowledge of. Their first reaction was to close my account rather than fact check (a well known former contributor's) story.
We all make mistakes and that could have been a one off, but I wasn't impressed, as I am not impressed by this one-sided, irresponsible coverage.
(To be clear, their toys, their rules. I'm fine with them closing accounts for whatever reason or for no reason at all, that's not the issue.)
Re: The problem with bad journalism
> Anyway, don't worry, you weren't logged in.
Beg pardon?
Re: The problem with bad journalism
That post shows as being by "Anonymous Coward", which indicates that the poster wasn't logged in. If that and the post about having had an account closed were also yours, I'm surprised you don't know that.
The problem with Elonaphiles
Well, I can see a path to me having a billion pounds in a year to a year and a half.
If that doesn't equate to me having a billion pounds in that time period it's a pretty useless statement.
Re: The problem with bad journalism
Musk is purposefully couching his language to avoid being called out for failure while still being able to claim glory if it works. It's a classic BS move and is sophistry (or at least related to it).
Musk has a habit of doing this sort of thing. There's always a "reason", handy excuse, or party to blame; it's out of his control. Then, when something great happens, he's front and centre to tout his divine vision and ability. Why is this ability so fickle? Why can't he bring it to bear on command? Before he'll answer, he'll bring out a "flamethrower" or claims of vox populi and the cycle moves on.
He's a rich hokum vendor, and money loves money; that's his power. He's not made anything, only bought in. It could be that this time he's done so at the worst time in very public fashion.
Re: The problem with bad journalism
Third paragraph: "I think I see a path to Twitter exceeding a billion monthly users in 12 to 18 months," Musk said on Twitter in...
Which you would know IF YOU READ THE ARTICLE?
A certain amount of artistic license is allowed in headlines and sub-headlines. The facts were fully presented in the article.
But you don;t want to read the article you just want to be a childish twat. Fuck off back to the Daily Wail or Fox.
Some people ..
there's people i wouldn't do business with and he's one of them. twitter ? no thanks .. ill pass.. leaves a s***** aftertaste.
may they go down in flames.
I think that he’s absolutely correct. But, as others say here, they’ll be bots. And bots aren’t exactly known for responding to advertising and splashing the cash. So, on that basis, who f’ing cares? It doesn’t matter. His users are imaginary numbers and he’s still an f’ing dimwit.
More Twitter numbers
* 900 million daily active bots
* 5M monthly active users
* 100k daily active users
* 1000 ad sales people
* 10 engineers
* 5 monthly paying users
* 1 Elon Musk
* 0 content moderation
* 0 advertisers
Re: More Twitter numbers
And a partridge in a pear tree
writers vs readers
Some strange disconnect in this article (well, another one)
The subscription options are for the mostly for the writing side of thigns that use twitter as some publishing channel. The cited stats are for the mostly readers. Assuming the readers will sign up for subscription is somewhat far fetched.
Re: writers vs readers
Elon said he counts on hundreds of millions of verified (phone and credit card) users, so both writers (creators) and readers (followers/subscribers). Dude's completely nuts
A path to a billion users
Pay each of us $10 to sign up.
Re: A path to a billion users
Cheap at the price!
Quick poll
When phoning a company convince them to place ads with you, do you:
A) Offer a good deal on slots for the next month
or
B) Cuss at them and say they are meanies for not buying you ad slots
If (B), should you also stamp your little feet?
Re: Quick poll
> When phoning a company
When reading an article and you see "reportedly", do you:
A. Take the report as fact
B. Understand that it's a get out of jail free card for the journalist to write something without taking responsibility for it (though in that case, the source solid be mentioned).
There are of course good uses of "reportedly" but often it's used to publish very dubious claims with no other purpose than to shape the narrative.
> Musk, it is claimed, personally called execs at some brands to berate them on their current Twitter ad policy.
I really hope some of those execs asked who was calling, who the hell he thinks he is and told him they will not be advertising on his new version of 4chan.
Track record..
as an entrepreneur not afraid to reconfigure and come out on top.
Musk could be the last one laughing, or maybe not. I don't think the 44 B$ is something for him to lose sleep over if it fails. More something as a life lesson... - next!