Open source's totally non-secret weapon big tech dares not use: Staying relevant
- Reference: 1667205010
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2022/10/31/opinion_column_relevance_in_business/
- Source link:
Smart people want to do good things, things that are relevant to others
[1]Meta and others are pitchforking hundreds of billions into a virtual bonfire of insanity, egged on by big-name analysts making risible predictions about trillion-dollar markets. That looks like a different universe to [2]decisions about free software for a 30-year-old processor with zero modern relevance. Likewise, Google's habit of [3]making things that nobody wants and breaking things that people do want, conversely, is a very Google thing.
All three are different ways of describing the same universal problems that all organizations face: resource allocation and opportunity cost. Meta is going hell for leather for one big idea that is delusional nonsense. Google's strategy of letting a thousand flowers bloom is a recipe for a backyard filled with weeds. Both these things are illnesses of the rich; you have the luxury of doing things badly for a long time if the cash keeps flowing.
Linux, on the other hand, is anything but rich. Its ecosystem of reward is enlightened self-interest, people and organizations that commit time and minds. They understand the importance of making things that matter and are very motivated to be a part of that. These resources are limited. Time spent developing, maintaining and testing for a processor that nobody uses is time not spent on current needs. Relevance has to be part of the reward; declaring something irrelevant is part of resource management. This balancing act has to work.
To a great extent, it does. FOSS has its flagship projects - the Linuxes and Apaches and LibreOffices - which means, perhaps miraculously, the desktop environment can be as productive and capable as proprietary alternatives.
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There may seem to be no FOSS equivalent of Azure or AWS or Google Cloud Platform, but the intellectual infrastructure that open source provides through the ecosystem of libraries and frameworks is arguably as important to modern IT as the cloud itself. Relevance, it turns out, is a really good way to make resources self-manage, to be maximally productive in ways that match need.
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It's amazing how making money the motivator can break that down. One cost of being rich is that you can ignore the outside world, or see it as something to be bought. That shields against relevance to users. Meta wants everyone to work in the metaverse, and is denying the awkward fact that strapping shoeboxes to our heads is completely irrelevant to our day jobs. But guess how long a career at Meta will be for anyone who says so. Relevance is poison to big wrong projects, and the corporate immune system recognizes it as such.
Another cost of plump revenues is that they become the only relevant things in your world. Google's incoherent product strategy is the opportunity cost of management mindset soaking away into the sands of advertising revenue and the resulting wars with regulators and governments. Meta has the same besetting sin, it just minimizes proper strategic planning by declaring it a "vision" instead.
[7]Google's Alphabet to review every project after $6bn decline in profits
[8]Most Metaverse business projects will be dead by 2025
[9]Linus Torvalds suggests the 80486 architecture belongs in a museum, not the Linux kernel
[10]Firefox points the way to eradicating one of the rudest words online: PDF
The irony of this is that both Google and Meta are successful parts of the FOSS ecosystem - and not just with headliners like Android, Chromium, Kubernetes, React, and PyTorch. Google in particular is proud of the tens of thousands of its engineers engaged with [11]open source projects large and small . These are talented, engaged, valuable people, capable of doing great work. So how come the companies' branded goods don't reflect that?
Smart people want to do good things, things that are relevant to others. There's a word for behaving in ways that affect others in positive ways - ethics. Open source is profoundly ethical, in that it has rules that make deception extremely difficult. Proprietary models practically invite a divergence between public image and private motive. Guess which works better for motivating workers.
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Torvalds can enforce policy decisions among an independent workforce by becoming mildly grumpy. Zuckerberg can bring billions of dollars and the full force of corporate discipline to bear on a Mighty Vision, and it ain't happening. What's happening is big tech becoming seen as the enemy of good governance, the perverter of politics through amoral algorithms monetising misery. Yikes.
The long-term innovation that big tech needs is cultural, not technical. The one big idea can be a great way to bring a revolution. An internal market of ideas can spark real fire. But to get there, means engineering a way to make the good of the end user more relevant than maximising revenue. That may seem utopian, but it was once the stuff of corporate will.
"We believe strongly that in the long term, we will be better served—as shareholders and in all other ways — by a company that does good things for the world even if we forgo some short term gains." That's quite a sentence. The company? Google, in its 2004 IPO prospectus. The three words that preceded it? "Don't be evil."
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There's innovation for you. ®
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[1] https://www.theregister.com/2022/10/24/metaverse_dead_by_2025/
[2] https://www.theregister.com/2022/10/25/486_support_linux_kernel_ending/
[3] https://www.theregister.com/2022/10/26/google_reviewing_every_project_after/
[4] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_software/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2Y1@q4v@fOduUNS3UtehmZQAAAM0&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[5] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_software/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44Y1@q4v@fOduUNS3UtehmZQAAAM0&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[6] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_software/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33Y1@q4v@fOduUNS3UtehmZQAAAM0&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[7] https://www.theregister.com/2022/10/26/google_reviewing_every_project_after/
[8] https://www.theregister.com/2022/10/24/metaverse_dead_by_2025/
[9] https://www.theregister.com/2022/10/25/486_support_linux_kernel_ending/
[10] https://www.theregister.com/2022/10/24/firefox_pdf_column/
[11] https://opensource.googleblog.com/2020/08/open-source-by-numbers-at-google.html
[12] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_software/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44Y1@q4v@fOduUNS3UtehmZQAAAM0&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[13] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_software/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33Y1@q4v@fOduUNS3UtehmZQAAAM0&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[14] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
The venn diagram between "People who use interfaces" and "People who make interfaces" has always been damn close to two separate circles.
Google's interfaces are unbelievably bad. They have so many buttons which won't let you open in a new tab, or they'll only let you look at one thing in a new time and require three clicks to get to an identical part of another account's account.
That's just a microcosm of the bigger problem. Facebook for businesses' interface is a nightmare to use because what are marketers going to do? Not advertise on Facebook? Google is the same.
This wouldn't be so bad if other platforms, like Bing or Pinterest/Tiktok didn't then copy the bigger one as if it was worth copying in the first place.
Of course there is a disconnect between what the C-Suite want and what the users want - they don't need to use their stuff as part of their everyday life.
Don't forget the lawyers
There's another aspect to progression in 'new' developments and that is the obstructive use of patents. It's all very well having an idea and patenting the process but if you don't know how to achieve/complete/develop the action.....
At least the lawyers and patent trolls might get an opportunity to extract their share and distribute the riches accordingly.
Word Count.....
"customer" -- zero
"product(s)" -- one
....in Rupert Goodwins' article. And this also tells you something about Google and FB. Commercial success is a TWO-SIDED outcome......there's the people who invent (or develop) products, and there's the people who buy them (because the product satisfies a need).
....and obviously, there are very few people out there who need (huge processing power plus ugly headsets).....it doesn't look like a mass market.
....and (less obviously) there are an increasing number of customers who wonder about the downsides of doing business with Google or FB.....irrespective of the customer's need for the service.
....and finally, and not mentioned, there's the perennial question about "lock in" -- the move from running the software locally....to paying a monthly fee (forever). This last item seems to me to be a killer feature of open source, compared with the above.
Big Tech became political
Whilst they once strived for industrial and intellectual excellence Big Tech has simply moved on to being Poltically and Financially motivated at an extreme level. Zuckerberg and Google aren't constantly being sent to court because of engineering failures.
Big tech now appears to simply be a huge stream of endless Pipe Dreams, constantly bombarding us with product X, or idea Z. And even though there have been huge advances in technology I get the feeling that very few of them are being used for anything other than the rubbing of personal egos.
I can't/won't speak for Linus as I have absolutely no understanding of his personal objectives. He's a strange egg that is not easy to decipher.
Google's strategy of letting a thousand flowers bloom is a recipe for a backyard filled with weeds. Both these things are illnesses of the rich; you have the luxury of doing things badly for a long time if the cash keeps flowing.
...
But to get there, means engineering a way to make the good of the end user more relevant than maximising revenue. That may seem utopian, but it was once the stuff of corporate will.
It goes beyond just corporate world-view of throwing a lot of stuff at the wall and then seeing what sticks.
I seem to remember a former Googler commenting fairly recently that the reason Google has a million chat apps is that their internal progression model heavily encourages you to be involved in "Big Bang" releases. So the new chat/video call/Stadia project launches, half the devs then put in for promotion and move to the next Big Thing TM . Their previous "baby" then founders for a couple of years until it gets culled. It's not simply the result of a sober, considered policy of letting people explore and experiment (their "20% time") - it's an incentive to rehash solved-problems to tick a career-progression box.
It's a perverse incentive that's it's very, very difficult to get promoted or progress simply by being a good engineer and fixing bugs or sticking with a product and being a guru in it. You need to have "a thing" under your belt - which incentivises otherwise (probably) perfectly good engineers to go off and "innovate" a million variations on chat, video calling or some other solved problem.
This isn't necessarily a broader culture issue and more a misguided HR/management policy which could be solved with a minor tweak to how they conduct annual reviews. It's no secret that plenty of workplaces have seen productivity tumble or quality issues introduced after a listless manager (who usually doesn't understand the work well enough) decides to introduce some KPIs and the workforce then optimises their workflow to match those KPIs, and stops worrying about secondary or maintenance tasks which aren't being measured.
Voluntary unemployment
Meta wants everyone to work in the metaverse, and is denying the awkward fact that strapping shoeboxes to our heads is completely irrelevant to our day jobs. But guess how long a career at Meta will be for anyone who says so.
Senior management in big corporations certainly have some heavy-duty reality insulation, combine that with the perpetual circle jerk of mutual arse kissing, a cult like belief in the corporate propaganda and you have an infallible recipe for doing stupid way beyond the point when a face-saving course reversal is tenable.
The burden of untold riches
It seems to me that the problems of Google and Meta stem from having too much money.
When your annual turnover is measured in such large numbers, it is difficult to deliver the growth that shareholders both expect and demand. And since both companies are operating in what are essentially mature markets, the prospects for expanding their existing operations are limited. Added to which, when your companies span such a wide field of disciplines and markets, almost any attempt to buy into a promising growth area attracts the gaze of anti-monopoly regulators.
In case anyone has developed the false impression that I am feeling sorry for these outfits, or trying to excuse their actions, it would be useful to look to the past. In previous decades the solution was to break up such empires. Could it be that the time has come to separate the Goo from the Gle (and the You from the Tube), the Me from the Ta and the Ama from the Zon.
Though I have a sneaking suspicion that such a breakup would just increase the value of their owners' share holdings.
Mozilla not even mentioned?
The article fails to mention how the same thinking plagues the Open Source world, too, in MANY, MANY cases. On prime example: Mozilla Firefox.
Sure it's FOSS but Mozilla appear to be hell-bent on proving that "irrelevance" is achievable by those holding the reigns of a FOSS product, too, and, in fact, that they can mimic Google in removing every feature anybody actually wants and adding tonnes and tonnes of cruft that nobody asked for.
All of this – whether in the corporate world or without – stems from the same fundamental truth: nobody, today, achieves a powerful role while retaining a moderate attitude or an understanding that just-being-brilliant-at-something is enough. The ONLY way to the top is to fully subscribe to the cult of owning everything, always increasing everything, beating everything. And, of course, everything must be maximally monetized – just a fair profit is not enough.
"no FOSS equivalent of Azure or AWS or Google Cloud Platform"
But these are just several pieces of FOSS software lashed together with a proprietary API and billing software aren't they?
And sometimes if a piece of FOSS software used by a Big Tech corporation in is cloud is very lucky it will get a few pesos thrown in its general direction, for contributing several billion dollars to its quarterly profit figures.
The circle of life
This is exactly why companies' fortunes wax and wane - not just in the software space, but also in other industries.
While some of the big bets may pay off against all most others' expectations, these kinds of distractions allow others to build and establish compelling propositions that meet current customer needs and grow rapidly themselves.