Don't believe the hype: HP CEO says 3D printing hasn't met early hopes
- Reference: 1666616410
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2022/10/24/hp_lores_3d_printing_not_met_hype/
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As of September 2021, HP said more than 100 million parts had been produced with the assistance of 3D printers, though the company does not carry that level of specificity into financial results for its 3D printer portfolio.
At the recent Canalys Channels Forum in Barcelona, CEO Steve Brazier remarked to HP leader Lores that the overall market has disappointed in light of earlier estimates.
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"I think clearly the growth rates have not been what all of us were expecting, I would say five, six years ago. But I think the long term opportunity continues to be there. Especially as we think of new supply chain models where manufacturing will be more local, more distributed," he explained.
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"What we have done during the last two years is we have shifted our strategy. We not only focus anymore on developing hardware systems or consumables or services around the hardware. We saw that there was the need and the opportunity of building more end-to-end applications," Lores added.
HP has a unique model for its 3D print business. Their teams build the hardware and design the part and in many cases, this is what is sold to the end user. That process lets the vendor "understand better what the trends of the market are but also drive growth and accelerate our growth in some of the key areas."
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In 2016, the year HP entered 3D printing, [5]Canalys forecast compound annual growth [PDF] for global market sales of 43.5 percent between 2015 to 2020, reaching an annual value of $22.4 billion. According to Context, revenues generated by 3D printing in 2020 were actually $12.6 billion.
[6]The answer to 3D printing equipment on Mars might lie in the Red Planet's dust
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[8]US Army to build largest 3D-printed structures in the Americas
[9]Prince of Packaging HP Inc snaps up zero-plastic bottle maker
Matthew Ball, chief analyst at Canalys, told us that "like other technologies, there is a lot of hype around its initial stages but the use cases are niche or at least limited within industrial segments."
"I think it's the use cases," he added. "I think the initial expectation was that every every household would have one, every business would have one, but ultimately it's a different form of manufacturing, micro-manufacturing."
Ball thinks that longer term it will take off in a bigger way, "it's easier to underestimate, you know, the longer term and overestimate the short term."
Consumer 3D printing boomed during the pandemic as lower-end personal and kit and hobby printers found a new home among users, however sales plunged from the start of this year. A recovery in the Industrial segment in Q1 proved short-lived, with inflation and COVID lockdowns in China disrupting the supply chain.
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"Consumer 3D printing is not really 'plug and play' and while it allows everyone to be a 'maker', printers are not 'plug and play' and require ongoing maintenance and a certain level of patience," said Chris Connery, global head of analysis at Context. "Growth in shipments of new consumer-centric printers has trailed off since the worst of the pandemic."
Connery adds that in the business sector, 3D printers – which range in price from $5,000 to $4 million – are on manufacturing floors, engineering or architecture departments, and being used make rocket parts to orthopedic implants.
"The business side of 3D printing continues to accelerate beyond its original use as just tools for prototyping," said Connery.
Canalys thinks 3D printing will try cross over into the mainstream but Jay McBain, chief analyst told us the market for consumers need a global platform or network where they are offered the choice to print a product rather than buy it. "That's the tipping point." His point stood for business sector too, he said. ®
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HP's dreams of another "subscription" service like their printer ink thwarted by lack of interest.
Seriously, why does anyone still buy their printers? Yes, they're cheap to buy, but they're not cheap to use. I'd rather front load the cost and then use it cheaply forever myself. Just don't understand it. I can't see any benefit to anyone other than HP in that business model.
Ironically the model would make sense in the 3D printer world.
We have a bunch of printers, from Formlab liquidy-goop-stuff to big scary Titanium machines
But we also have shelves full of early attempts that didn't quite work, or were superseded, or the makers went bust.
Having a bunch of specialised (yes speciali s ed) machines that we can use as little as we want because we only pay for consumables, and the makers are incentivised to replace them with newer models would make sense for such an immature market.
There are a few parts that we can only make with metal printing or are one off prototypes or would need a dozen different processes to make conventionally - but I don't think we are ever going to see 3D printing replacing moulds or CNC for production
"HP CEO says 3D printing hasn't met early hopes"
Pity this article is only about sales. I'd be really interested in whether 3D printing has come up to technical expectations, on what scales and with what materials.
Re: "HP CEO says 3D printing hasn't met early hopes"
The use of 3D printing is mostly still in the one-off or small batch niche regardless of the materials involved, it will be a very long time before continuous 3D production runs get to within binocular distance of traditional manufacturing techniques in either cost or speed.
One area where 3D is making good progress is in the military. Workshops aboard some larger US warships now have metal printers, avoiding having to fly in an out of stock widget makes space available for other priority cargo. Aviation parts are being made this way now*, with (educated guess) much shorter operational lifespans than OEM parts but that'll be enough keep aircraft flying until the full spec part appears.
*Avoiding he cost of a destroyer & helo chain playing pass the parcel to move an under slung urgent & fragile load several hundred miles out into the ocean is quite an incentive.
Re: "HP CEO says 3D printing hasn't met early hopes"
Well hopefully your educated guess is not always right on part operational lifetimes. Some OEM aviation parts are built this way now because they can print parts that cannot be machined in one piece.
Re: "HP CEO says 3D printing hasn't met early hopes"
Also large usage in other hi-tech, fast moving, industries like F1, for prototyping and point of immediate use situations. It's still an emerging market, which is fine for geeky hobbyists, but it will be a while yet before it is mainstream. I would like to see companies offer basic spare parts as €10 if you buy it, or €5 if you want the gcode to make one yourself. But obvious lack of IP control makes that unlikely.
Given the shitty state that HP has made of the 2D printing world, if they don't think 3D printing is worth it, then I'm happy for them for fuck off out of it.
Re: "HP CEO says 3D printing hasn't met early hopes"
>Workshops aboard some larger US warships now have metal printers, avoiding having to fly in an out of stock widget makes space available for other priority cargo.
That sounds like exactly the "reason" I would use if I was a geek in an organisation with an essentially unlimited budget and I wanted to justify a cool toy. At least this will kill less people than the V22
Perhaps it's because HP makes crappy 3D printers
Or perhaps it's because, until this article, I didn't even know they made 3D printers, and I've been seriously into 3D printing for 4 years now.
If you want a good 3D printer where you'll be doing more printing than dicking around with the printer, then get yourself a Prusa MK3S+
People cheap out and get an Ender or an Anycubic then bitch that 3D printing sucks. That's like getting a 486 and complaining that Excel takes forever to load.
I've printed a ton of stuff, but then I'm also somewhat of a wizard at OpenSCAD, and the two are related. Designs for something you need don't magically appear. There's a ton of stuff on Thingiverse and Printables, but most of it is just STL files that you can't modify or adjust.
Re: Perhaps it's because HP makes crappy 3D printers
+1 for the Prusa MK3S+ (my first 3D printer built from their kit, and I keep wondering why 3D printing is such a struggle for others). Also +1 for OpenSCAD - a boon for the quick design of a small bracket, spacer, whatever without having to navigate some contorted CAD system that doesn't work on my OS.
What a shock. Greedy corporate America overestimated the profitability based on the hype spewed by early adopter fanatics.