California wildfires hit CTRL+Z on 18 years of CO2e removal
- Reference: 1666291508
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2022/10/20/california_wildfires_co2e/
- Source link:
Researchers at the University of California, Los Angeles and the University of Chicago reported the findings in a [1]brief paper that examined three fire emissions estimates to arrive at their number for 2020 wildfire emissions: 127 million metric tons (mmt) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO 2 e).
Between 2003 and 2019, the researchers said, California's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions declined by 13 percent, or around 65 mmt of CO 2 e. Those reductions were largely due to a shift to renewable energy and adopting other forms of emissions slashing by the energy generation sector, the team said.
[2]
To put that 127 mmt in perspective, California's total GHG emissions in 2019 was 418 mmt of CO 2 e. When accounting for wildfire emissions, "this amounts to a 30 percent increase in total emissions by all sectors," the researchers said.
[3]
[4]
The abstract of their report is stark:
We estimate that California's wildfire carbon dioxide equivalent (CO 2 e) emissions from 2020 are approximately two times higher than California's total greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions since 2003. Without considering future vegetation regrowth, CO 2 e emissions from the 2020 wildfires could be the second most important source in the state above either industry or electrical power generation.
"Essentially, the positive impact of all that hard work over almost two decades is at risk of being swept aside by the smoke produced in a single year of record-breaking wildfires," said lead author, Dr Michael Jerrett.
An emerging 'industry' to account for
Wildfires released so much GHG in 2020 that, when considered alongside other polluting industries in California, wildfires take a close second. Only the [5]transportation industry in the state emits more GHGs.
When averaging out wildfire emissions for the past five years, the accidental discharges of CO 2 e "ranks above the most recent individual contributions from the Commercial & Residential, Agriculture, Recycling & Waste, and High Global Warming Potential sectors," the researchers found.
Despite wildfires in California undoing the state's efforts to lead on climate change mitigation, Jerrett said they aren't getting attention despite emitting the same, or greater, amounts of GHGs.
[6]
"Although wildfires are to some extent natural occurrences, human activity contributes to making wildfires 'unnatural disasters' through man-made climate change and development … in fire prone areas," Jerrett [7]said .
[8]Junk cellphones on Earth would stack higher than the International Space Station
[9]Self-imposed climate change may have killed Martian life
[10]India's Mars Orbiter Mission loses contact, burns all fuel, deemed 'non-recoverable'
[11]US Department of Energy has $42m to make datacenter cooling more efficient
The study didn't account for the growth of new vegetation in fire-swept areas, meaning it's an upper bound on the potential GHG emissions from wildfires. That said, even if vegetation is regrowing in burned regions the researchers don't think it will happen fast enough "to meet near and medium-term emission targets needed to avert passing the 1.5 degree C threshold."
If the world is going to stay on track to meet climate goals, the researchers conclude, it's time to track wildfire emissions alongside other key sectors like transportation, industry and energy generation. As the paper notes, 18 of California's 20 most destructive fires have happened since 2000, and five of those in 2020 alone. ®
Get our [12]Tech Resources
[1] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0269749122011022
[2] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2Y1HE9B1GuB3-X3jORkG6NgAAAJg&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[3] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44Y1HE9B1GuB3-X3jORkG6NgAAAJg&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[4] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33Y1HE9B1GuB3-X3jORkG6NgAAAJg&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[5] https://www.theregister.com/2022/08/25/california_electric_vehicles/
[6] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44Y1HE9B1GuB3-X3jORkG6NgAAAJg&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[7] https://ph.ucla.edu/news/press-release/2022/oct/ucla-led-study-finds-california-s-greenhouse-gas-reductions-could-be
[8] https://www.theregister.com/2022/10/14/international_e_waste_day/
[9] https://www.theregister.com/2022/10/11/mars_climate_microbes/
[10] https://www.theregister.com/2022/10/04/isro_mars_orbiter_mission_ends/
[11] https://www.theregister.com/2022/09/26/coolerchips_program_doe/
[12] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
Re: Australian approach
That is not the conclusion that I would draw. It is indeed an excuse.
Mismanagement
"Although wildfires are to some extent natural occurrences, human activity contributes to making wildfires 'unnatural disasters' through man-made climate change and development … in fire prone areas," Jerrett said.
There's very little that's unnatural about wildfires, and probably very little due to development, other than increasing the impact of eventual fires. So build stuff in the woods, don't be too suprised when it burns in a wildfire. That's the unnatural situation that Australia has, ie not allowing landowners to reduce fire risks.
California's problem seems to be in not managing it's land, so fuel loads increase, especially when there are millions of dead trees due to pine borers. So fires become more intense to the point where even it's fire tolerant species burn and the state gets fined $80/t for the CO2 emissions. Or they just try to pass those costs on to ConEd, who pass them on to Cali customer's bills. If Cali were serious about reducing the risk of wildfires, it should take a more active responsibility for managing their land properly.
Re: Mismanagement
This is not really true. Natural wildfires historically happened during the rainy season, because they were started by lightning. Because the rainy season is generally colder and wetter, the fires would burn though the undergrown but leave the larger mature trees mostly intact. By contrast, the recent fires have mostly been caused by human ignition sources, during the driest, hottest times of year. Worse, many were caused by electrical sources on days with high wind. Those fires spread much faster and burn much hotter than the natural fires, and are thus far not damaging. Some of the most damaging fires in recent years started or spread through regions which had had fires or were clear cut just a few years previously, still you really can go blaming historical for suppression efforts for them. The mismanagement love is popular with a certain crowd that wants to authorize more clear-cutting, though.
Re: Mismanagement
Some of the most damaging fires in recent years started or spread through regions which had had fires or were clear cut just a few years previously, still you really can go blaming historical for suppression efforts for them. The mismanagement love is popular with a certain crowd that wants to authorize more clear-cutting, though.
The perfect management is a theory popular with a certain crowd that thinks forests should be left to grow wild. But who said anything about clear cutting? Wildfires were more common in the past, ie acres burned. Fires are simple things, run by the triad. Fuel, oxygen, heat. Allow fuel to grow unchecked, oxygen's a given, add heat and away they go.
We can mostly only influence one of those, so we could take some active measures to reduce the fuel load. Cali doesn't want to do that, Australia makes it illegal. Clear cutting is one option, but also a misnomer. Cali could clear cut parcels of it's forests to create fire breaks and reduce fuel loads.. If that cutting removes all the fuel. It could just cut fire breaks. It could thin out forests and do some brush clearing. It could remove the millions of dead trees from it's pine borer infestation.
But it doesn't. Much simpler to do nothing, and blame 'climate change' when it inevitably burns.
Re: Mismanagement
Increased heat and droughts caused by climate change are a marginal contributing factor to the fires, but absolutely the #1 culprit is overdevelopment and lack of land management. The main reason for droughts is most of the water is being sucked up by excessive agriculture including heavy cultivation of species that require lots of water eg almond trees. Suburban planning also means massive sprawl, and because suburbs and the requisite infrastructure are expensive to maintain and under-taxed, municipalities have to keep growing to stay solvent (like a physical ponzi scheme)
The combination leaves lots of homeowners / landowners who are both in close proximity to woodland, and unable to sufficiently water their lawns / other vegetation which cerate a buffer zone between the forests and human sources of potential ignition.
Misleading
> The study didn't account for the growth of new vegetation in fire-swept areas
That's a pretty important caveat. In a steady state, forests fix some carbon, but dead leaves and wood also release carbon (and methane, which is worse) into the atmosphere as they rot. On the other hand, charcoal, once buried under new growth, is actually a really good way to sequester carbon. And recently burned areas are going to see very rapid vegetation growth, which will fix carbon. So yeah, over time scales of a few years, forest fires release lots of carbon, but over multi-decade timescales I suspect that a forest that gets periodic alternating cycles of fires and regrowth is going to sequester more carbon than one which doesn't. Especially if those are relatively cool fires which burn the undergrowth (which grows back very quickly) but leaves the big, mature fire-adapted trees behind.
That said, while many of these ecosystems are adapted for fire, they're adapted for the less intense fires you get when they're caused by lightning that is usually accompanied by rain (last year's Big Basin fire being a freak exception). In recent years, most of the wildfires in California were caused by human ignition sources, on hot, dry, windy days, when the fires spread faster and burn hotter. So instead of mostly just burning undergrowth and leaving the older trees behind, it burns everything. That's harder to recover from.
Maybe...
Maybe, just maybe, they should start removing all the old, dry wood again that the tree harvesters left behind, like they used to do, before eco warriors stopped them. Same problem as in Australia. And, no, you won't find this on the BBC or in the Guardian.
Re: Maybe...
So long as there's rain, redwood trees grow like weeds and they're nearly indestructible. They'll blanket steep unstable granite mountains in the Sierra mountain range. Pine trees are less fire resistant but make up for it with faster growth.
The California fires were those massive trees turning into giant torches because they were dying/dead of dehydration.
If they're not being logged now it's because you can't reach them. You can't put all the blame on environmentalists.
But all the carbon in the CO2 produced by wildfires, like the CO2 and CH4 emitted by domesticated livestock, must have been originally captured from the atmosphere by photosynthesising plants (part of the carbon cycle, which some of us learnt about in school geography, unless we were taking part in a klimastreik that day). It's not directly comparable to emissions from fossil fuels, which are what ultimately increases CO2 in the atmosphere.
Australian approach
Wasn't this an excuse by a recent Aussie administration?
The CO2 from their forest fires were so much higher than all their industrial emissions that there was no need for any reductions in their man made sources