Ex-Googler Eric Schmidt's think tank warns China could win global tech race
- Reference: 1663133579
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2022/09/14/special_competitive_studies_project_report/
- Source link:
The Special Competitive Studies Project (SCSP) is chaired by former Google boss Eric Schmidt and was formed in October 2021. The organization’s first publication emerged last Monday, titled "Mid-Decade Challenges to National Competitiveness". The [1]document [PDF] asserts that three technologies – microelectronics, AI, and 5G – will determine national power.
Microelectronics matter because the USA is utterly dependent on them, but most are made "in the shadow" of China. If China were to capture chipmaking plants and cut off supplies of raw materials needed to make them, the Project predicts "America's military is crippled, and the nation is plunged into a depression."
The tech ecosystem evolved without reference to geopolitical rivalry and with indifference to strategic implications
5G is critical because Chinese firms led hardware development and deployment, giving Beijing the chance to control network hardware around the world.
AI matters because China has linked it to national security – but Washington's plan to do likewise trailed Beijing's by four years.
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"The United States cannot continue to shoot behind the target on critical technologies, address them piecemeal, or only belatedly connect their impact to the future of geopolitics and democracy once the consequences are too obvious to ignore," the report states.
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But the US is in poor shape to catch up, having let its manufacturing base shrink and failed to consider or develop good technology governance.
Big Tech and the venture capitalists that funded its rise are partly to blame for the problem.
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"The tech ecosystem evolved without reference to a geopolitical rivalry and with relative indifference to the strategic implications of tech developments," the document argues. Venture capital firms sparked plenty of innovation, but focused on making money and not the long-term efforts required to develop national strength. Nor did government run a "moonshot" that would have galvanized industry in pursuit of national goals.
Not that such a plan would have been a sure-fire fix.
"The United States cannot rerun the Cold War playbook and hope it works, because conditions have changed. Rebuilding US strengths and getting ahead of the next wave of technology requires mastering a new geometry of American innovation and harnessing it for national advantage," the report states. "We cannot rest on the laurels of a strong technology ecosystem, a vibrant private sector, or superior ideals to naturally adapt."
[6]USA's plan to decouple its tech with China lacks a strategy – report
[7]Biden administration prepares to bring hammer down on Chinese chipmakers
[8]US seeks standards dominance, lets Huawei access previously forbidden crypto tech
[9]China orders tech companies to 'improve traceability' of users to control 'rumours and false information'
The document suggests the US urgently revise its innovation policies and practices to ensure the private and public sectors collaborate, revitalize local manufacturing, develop national AI governance that allows the technology to be harnessed for good, reform its military and warfighting strategies, and work with allies to combat China-led pushes that could embed authoritarian-friendly ideas in global tech standards.
And if the US fails?
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The report imagines a future in which "China controls the design and production of solar, wind, and nuclear energy technology and uses its chokehold over other nations' climate transitions as leverage. Its dominance of tech sectors creates powerful platforms and companies that replace US-based companies in key areas including cloud services, social media, and internet search."
Once that happens, more nations come into China's orbit and emulate China's authoritarian governance, even as Beijing gains power to attack their digital infrastructure. China's web giants – and the governance model that sees them censor dissent – dominate the world.
China also achieves military superiority, allowing it to reclaim Taiwan.
Beijing also dominates global payment systems, giving it an insight into individuals' spending and leverage over the global financial system.
The document also warns that technology itself could derail national ambitions.
"The internet's technological evolution is a wildcard in this contest as the push for a decentralized 'web3' built on blockchain technologies could create a new paradigm for restoring a free internet, fizzle out, or be similarly susceptible to government control," the document states.
All of which is scary – and designed to be, because the SCSP sees its role as alerting policy makers to big challenges.
The document calls on them to act now, because whichever party leads The United States from 2025 will need to be ready to act. ®
Get our [11]Tech Resources
[1] https://www.scsp.ai/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/SCSP-Mid-Decade-Challenges-to-National-Competitiveness.pdf
[2] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_software/aiml&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2YyGmRe0elFgNJQksD6AIEgAAAQk&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
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[6] https://www.theregister.com/2022/04/26/usas_plan_to_decouple_its/
[7] https://www.theregister.com/2022/09/13/biden_china_chip_sanctions/
[8] https://www.theregister.com/2022/09/09/bis_eases_tech_export_restrictions/
[9] https://www.theregister.com/2022/09/05/asia_in_brief/
[10] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_software/aiml&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33YyGmRe0elFgNJQksD6AIEgAAAQk&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[11] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
Yes.
Luckily those slanty eyed devils fritter their time away on solar energy , wind turbines, batteries, and nuclear reactors.
news?
I've been saying this for sometime now. It will be really sad once China does make that quantum leap ahead of the rest of the world, I doubt they will say "Hey it's ok, we won't take advantage of the situation!
Common goals
> the US urgently revise its innovation policies and practices to ensure the private and public sectors collaborate
Well, the private sector wants to make enormous profits for reasons of self-enrichment. The public sector (or at least the people employed in it) want much the same. With an added portion of recognition of how clever they all are.
So the question comes down to how much money is the USA-ian government willing to throw at the initiative?
Explanation please
"5G is critical because Chinese firms led hardware development and deployment, giving Beijing the chance to control network hardware around the world."
I have posed the question many times as to precisely what "backdoors" etc have actually been found in Huawei kit. Never an answer. But that is now a side issue.
How is it that telecoms companies and their engineers buy stuff which leaves "control" (sic) in the hands of the supplier? OK the supplier can - cough cough - run out of critical spare parts. Any other way or do I need to be concerned that Dyson controls my vacuum cleaner?
Re: Explanation please
No Backdoors, just the problem of being able to ask for one!
So be it with ICT and AI too.
There are many who will tell you the West has already lost the race to capture future lead because of their increasingly obvious inequitable abuse/rigging of strategic market indicators suggesting sustainable success and glorious profit rather than reflecting increasing failure and disappearing good options ...... [1]https://usdebtclock.org
And their unwillingness or inability to fundamentally change or retune the core drivers now more widely being recognised as being responsible for having destroyed the American Dream Machine, rightly has any who may be able to help with such unconventional and non-traditional changes as be necessary, preferring to venture forth with novel proprietary intellectual property elsewhere when their offers of help are studiously ignored.
What part[s] of ..... If you’re in a deep dark hole creating enemies and division, stop digging ..... does Uncle Sam not understand?
[1] https://usdebtclock.org
Re: So be it with ICT and AI too.
What part[s] of ..... If you’re in a deep dark hole creating enemies and division, stop digging ..... does Uncle Sam not understand?
Given that Uncle Sam as a collective seems to have the brainpower of a not particularly bright 3 year old, probably none of it.
"the US is in poor shape to catch up"
If the US spent more money on its education system, it might be in better shape.
It's all very nice to have prestigious universities, but if half of the students come from China, what do you think will happen ?
Yes. China will end by dominating. A Chinese person isn't any more stupid than anybody else, and right now, China has a vast proportion of technological industries to work with.
If you think they're not going to learn from that, go have fun at Mar-A-Lago.
"The report imagines a future in which "China controls the design and production of solar, wind, and nuclear energy technology and uses its chokehold over other nations' climate transitions as leverage."
That's already the reality. China doesn't give a rats ass about the environment and is a happily building coal power plants to keep it's growth on track and supply energie. Meanwhile the western world is chocking itself and I have little doubt rolling blackouts are going to be a thing in Europe within the next 5 years (ie, by 2025). And there is nothing that can be done about it anymore. We've already passed the tipping point with the gas supply getting cut off from Russia. We should have started building nuke plants with urgency about 10 years ago (when everybody who knows how energy grids works warned of this exact scenario).
Meanwhile the US is headed for another civil war as the Dem/GOP gap widens and both sides entrench into extremes.
However, I think it also remains to be seen whether the PRC will still be a thing in 5 years time. There's internal rumblings (a lot of it triggered by covid) and they're not doing so splendid on all fronts. We just don't get to see or hear a lot of it in the west.
Conversely, Xi's over arching desire to micro manage the CCP and China by installing loyal political lackeys all the way down is putting a crimp on China's plans. Just look at the out of control Covid lockdowns. Question it, and lose your job.
Google - so much money spent just to push adverts, is that really the crowning glory of the US tech industry?