Windows 10 business refresh will revive PC shipments
- Reference: 1662122861
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2022/09/02/windows_10_business_refresh_pcs/
- Source link:
Unit sales soared in 2020 and 2021 as government imposed lockdowns forced a change in the way work people worked, learned and entertained themselves. The PC was back in a big way and the industry logged sales records not witnessed in almost a decade.
Yet what went up is now coming down and IDC has downgraded its shipment outlook, estimating that 305.3 million computers will ship into channels during this 12 month calendar, down 12.8 percent, and tablets will fall 6.8 percent to 156.8 million.
[1]
The reasons for the forecast are familiar to many Reg readers: a hike in inflation, a weakening global economy and people simply not needing to buy new machines at the same rate.
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“Though demand is slowing, the outlook for shipments remains above pre-pandemic levels, said Jitesh Urbani, research manager for IDC’s Mobility and Consumer Device Tracker.
“Long-term demand will be driven by a slow economic recovery combined with an enterprise hardware refresh as support for Windows 10 nears its end. Educational deployments and hybrid work are also expected to become a mainstay driving additional volumes,” he added.
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Windows 11 was released in October and so large corporate enterprises may well feel more comfortable replacing existing machines from next year. Support for Windows 10 doesn’t end until October 14, 2025.
[5]Lenovo's folding portable ThinkPad grows to 16.3in, adds keyboard
[6]AMD refreshes desktop CPUs with 5nm Ryzen 7000s that can reach 5.7GHz with 16 cores
[7]Inflation worries push PC and mobile DRAM demand down, with pricing to follow
[8]IT departments often regret technology buying decisions
Consumer devices – PCs and tablets – are expected by IDC to decline 9.9 percent in 2022 to 265.3 million; Enterprise is said to be on track to shrink 1.6 percent to 57.6 million; Public Sector is expected to dip 20.3 percent to 69.2 million; and SMB will dive 10.5 percent to 70 million, IDC said.
The dropoff in Public Sector is partially due to Chromebook saturation in the US, particularly in education. America had typically accounted for 70 percent of shipments.
IDC said it expects "worsening consumer sentiment to result in further consumer market contractions overt the next six quarters."
HP's Q2 consumer PC sales [9]plunged 20 percent in Q3 of its fiscal 2022 and contributed to a 3 percent overall dip in its Personal Systems Group sales, the company confirmed this week. Commercial PC shipments grew.
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Boss Enrique Lores said: "Consumer softness is likely to continue in the near term. We also see some companies taking a more measured approach to their spending and new orders showing signs of softening demand in commercial categories."
Over at Dell, its PC division grew 9 percent to $15.5 billion, but the consumer sales were down 9 percent to $3.3bn and commercial grew 16 percent to $12.1 billion.
CFO Tom Sweet said of the business, "We are seeing demand weakness in both Consumer and Commercial." ®
Get our [11]Tech Resources
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[5] https://www.theregister.com/2022/09/01/lenovo_thinkpad_x1_fold_portable/
[6] https://www.theregister.com/2022/08/30/amd_ryzen_7000_cpu/
[7] https://www.theregister.com/2022/08/16/pc_mobile_dram_demand/
[8] https://www.theregister.com/2022/07/15/buyers_remose_it_departments/
[9] https://www.theregister.com/2022/08/31/hp/
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[11] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
Upgrade our downgrades
So we are creating computers using lots of different materials and then we eventually have to throw them all away when a new operating system is released, how is this going to work for humanity over the next few thousand years? Where's all the material trash going?
Originally we started just picking up rocks and chipping them to make an axe, then throwing them away when we figured out how to put the little bits on the end of a branch to make a spear ... these days we're digging up tons of materials, using heat and chemicals to start to make new CPU's ... overall heating the planet a little more when the data gets larger and travels faster with a new computer needing more power before we upgrade and throw it away, needing more work and heat to build the new one.
Win 10 has life left
Personally I believe there is another few years life in Windows 10 before organisations look to upgrade. The last few years I've seen organisations buying SSD drives and more RAM, and upgrading their desktops for faster performance. Some replaced desktops with laptops thanks to the pandemic. They'll want to get more years out of that investment first, before buying new kit, I believe.
With the impact of cost of living having the potential to drive businesses to the wall (the overall trend of business opening/closing is still downward) and advertiser spending slowing to the degree that the likes of Meta are squeaking a little... I think the sales over the next twelve months will be worse than the figures quoted by another 50% on top of what they've already forecast. Unless governments step in to save the day; for which there's still time.
Not ethical
Making companies purchase new hardware just to run the latest software is no longer ethical. Withdrawing support to further pressure companies to do this is also out of order. It creates unnecessary landfill just to line the coffers of $soft and Intel.
Apart from one machine, we have migrated away from Windows to Linux. Except for two apps we have managed to live without it and they now run in VirtualBox under Linux. However, even those apps are now saying that they will run on Win 10 & 11 only.
When will this end?
Mandatory upgrades
Apart from all the reason already mentioned why constant upgrading is not good for humanity or the planet, does anyone consider what a typical work PC is used for these days?
Many things run in the cloud nowadays, needing only a web browser, which can run on pretty much any PC. It doesn't have to be Windows 11, or Windows 10 or windows anything. A mac or Linux or even an android will be just as good. I think there will come a time (within a decade) when the work that most people do will only require a browser on a very thin client. Yes, "power users" may need something more, but a browser running on any OS will give a nice window into the cloud for 90%+ of business users. It needs a few brave IT depts to stick their neck out and try to make that break from windows and its constant upgrades and new hardware.
It will almost be a return to the greenscreens already discussed here today, or the fabled "network computer" of the late 90's.
"Windows 10 business refresh will revive PC shipments"?
Businesses migrating from Windows 10 to Windows 11 will revive the PC market? Seriously?
Uh, no. It really won't. Does anyone, anywhere, actually want or need Windows 11?