Russian anti-satellite test added to a 'pressing threat to security' in space
- Reference: 1660116609
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2022/08/10/space_debris_russia/
- Source link:
Dan Oltrogge, chief scientist at space operations biz COMSPOC, explained how space junk generated from anti-satellite weapons (ASAT) are a [1]"pressing threat to security and sustainability" at a talk during this week's annual Small Satellite Conference in Utah.
Debris from the 2021 [2]destruction of Cosmos 1408, a 2,200kg offline signals intelligence satellite, has caused an uptick of close approaches – also known as "conjunction squalls" – with active spacecraft and satellites being launched into space.
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"Conjunction squalls represent a step change in the number of conjunctions that a satellite or family of satellites experience with a fragmentation debris source," Oltrogge told The Register .
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"A common manner of formation is that a fragmentation event occurs that pollutes an orbital plane, and this plane later becomes coplanar with an active satellite constellation's orbital plane."
[6]Russia blows up old satellite, NASA boss 'outraged' as ISS crew shelters from debris
[7]Clean up orbit first, then we can think about space factories, says FCC
[8]SpaceX demonstrates that it too can shower the Earth with debris
[9]Spent Chinese rocket booster splashes down over Southeast Asia
There have been hundreds of thousands of conjunctions with the Russian ASAT debris, he said. SpaceX's Starlink satellites have experienced over 6,000 close approaches, where some form of space junk has come within 10km, SpaceNews [10]first reported. Out of those events about 1,700 were involved with ASAT debris, Oltrogge told us.
Conjunction squalls don't just affect Starlink birds, however. The space junk affects the majority of spacecraft in Sun-synchronous orbit, according to [11]research [PDF] led by COMSPOC. The International Space Station, for example, is at risk of colliding with ASAT litter. Over time, the debris particles will gradually disperse and fall due to orbital decay.
To prevent a build up of conjunction squalls, Oltrogge recommended space agencies and governments should "stop conducting direct ascent ASAT tests, and do not intentionally cause fragmentations to occur that create long-lived debris, which puts the spacecraft operator satellites at risk."
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"[They should] adopt internationally-established consensus best practices for space operations, to include minimizing post-mission orbit lifetime, [building] spacecraft that have a reliability of their post-mission disposal function of at least 95 percent, and sharing data, [to] be transparent about one's operations, [and] help with capacity-building for new spacecraft designers, builders, and operators," he told us. ®
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[1] https://twitter.com/COMSPOC/status/1556832124224806914
[2] https://www.theregister.com/2021/11/16/russia_satellite_iss/
[3] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2YvOBxn1didhn56Vudx1X8AAAAMo&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[4] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44YvOBxn1didhn56Vudx1X8AAAAMo&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[5] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33YvOBxn1didhn56Vudx1X8AAAAMo&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[6] https://www.theregister.com/2021/11/16/russia_satellite_iss/
[7] https://www.theregister.com/2022/08/08/orbital_cleanup_space_factories/
[8] https://www.theregister.com/2022/08/03/spacex_debris/
[9] https://www.theregister.com/2022/08/02/china_rocket_splashdown/
[10] https://spacenews.com/starlink-satellites-encounter-russian-asat-debris-squalls/
[11] https://regmedia.co.uk/2022/08/09/russian_asat_space_junk_paper.pdf
[12] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44YvOBxn1didhn56Vudx1X8AAAAMo&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[13] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
Re: Just speculation but ...
In this case, I don't think there are many dots to be joined. If you know you're about to start an invasion, you test your weapons. In this specific case, you don't need anti-satellite weapons in order to invade Ukraine, but I guess that Russia couldn't completely rule out an escalation, and so they also needed to test stuff that they might need against more advanced potential opponents.
Re: Just speculation but ...
Not speculation, I can't find it now but I'm sure Putin came outright with "look what we can do, mother fuckers! Stop interfering with our shit else your sats are toast."
In those exact words too, when he's not posing nude on a horse, he speaks street.
"internationally-established consensus best practices for space operations"
Yeah, well this is just a demonstration of how well we play together : badly.
Selfishness exists at all levels, individual, department, company, and country.
This storm of debris demonstrates a country-level of selfishness that is, unfortunately, not surprising.
Re: "internationally-established consensus best practices for space operations"
Prior to the whole Ukraine invasion - the various major space agencies (with the possible exception of the Chinese) worked quite well together. They co-ordinated pretty well.
But once militaries get involved, such as those wanting to shoot down satellites, then co-operation and co-ordination goes out the window. Once the militaries decide they want to test their weapons, even if the space agency turned around and says this will cause us masses of problems, Who do you think the man with his finger on the trigger is going to listen to - the generals or the scientists?
Shame, really. The world would be 100x better if it was in the hands of the scientists instead of the politicians and militaries...
Just speculation but ...
Given the timing of the creation of this debris cloud a few months before the invasion of Ukraine began, you have to wonder whether this was a planned event to make it harder and/or more risky for the US and other governments to get monitoring equipment into orbit or to use it as effectively.
I have no idea one way or another and no agenda to push, it's just the way my brain joined the dots.