SpaceX demonstrates that it too can shower the Earth with debris
- Reference: 1659537006
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2022/08/03/spacex_debris/
- Source link:
The black shard, found sticking out of the ground, is presumed to be Elon Musk's take on [1]2001's Monolith . The Register asked SpaceX to clarify, but we have yet to receive a response.
The debris fell to Earth earlier in July, and the three-meter long component was found on July 25. Australian authorities had been awaiting confirmation that the pieces were indeed from a SpaceX mission and, [2]according to ABC South East NSW , that confirmation has now been received.
G’day [3]@elonmusk , I’m a reporter at [4]@abcnews that’s been covering the discovery of [5]@SpaceX debris in Australia. Just wondering, is anyone from your team coming to collect it?
Here’s a pic of one of the pieces👇 [6]pic.twitter.com/NcJeuigQzx — Adriane Reardon (@adrianereardon) [7]August 3, 2022
Astronomer Jonathan McDowell [8]noted that the July 8 reentry path for the leftover SpaceX Crew-1 trunk was close to the Dalgety area (slightly inland, halfway between Melbourne and Sydney) where the debris was found. The lengthy shard also bears a distinct resemblance to the attach point of one of the trunk's four fins. Additional debris was also found.
[9]Spent Chinese rocket booster splashes down over Southeast Asia
[10]Eutelsat and OneWeb to join forces across orbits in $3.4b merger
[11]SpaceX upgrades Starlink to reflect less light, can't launch without its Starship
[12]Russia's new space chief confirms it will leave ISS after 2024
As well as a reusable capsule, the SpaceX Crew Dragon has an unpressurized trunk, which features solar panels and fins. The trunk is jettisoned prior to reentry for disposal. However, it appears that some components survived to land in Australia.
SpaceX's Crew-1 mission was the first operational flight of the Crew Dragon, ferrying four astronauts to the International Space Station (ISS.) It launched on November 16, 2020 and returned to Earth on May 2, 2021. The trunk, it appears, made its own return somewhat later.
PSA: The 2020 monolith is a dead meme. You can stop putting them up now. Please [13]READ MORE
Crew-1 was notable for breaking the record for longest spaceflight by a US crewed vehicle, comfortably surpassing the 84 days of an Apollo capsule on the last Skylab flight. This was a vaguely ironic result, considering Skylab was also notable for [14]smacking into Australia , albeit back in 1979.
[15]The fate of China's spent Long March 5B booster recently focused minds on the problem of debris falling to Earth. US citizens may therefore be relieved to note that their rocket outfits are just as capable of showering the ground with fragments of spacecraft as their Chinese counterparts. ®
[16]
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[1] https://www.theregister.com/2018/04/03/alternative_2001_space_odyssey/
[2] https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-03/space-x-debris-sheep-paddock-australian-space-agency/101295488
[3] https://twitter.com/elonmusk?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
[4] https://twitter.com/abcnews?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
[5] https://twitter.com/SpaceX?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
[6] https://t.co/NcJeuigQzx
[7] https://twitter.com/adrianereardon/status/1554674873624334336?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
[8] https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1553030725456240643
[9] https://www.theregister.com/2022/08/02/china_rocket_splashdown/
[10] https://www.theregister.com/2022/07/26/eutelsat_oneweb/
[11] https://www.theregister.com/2022/08/01/spacex_satellite_brightness/
[12] https://www.theregister.com/2022/07/26/russia_iss_2024/
[13] https://www.theregister.com/2020/12/08/monolith_is_dead_meme/
[14] https://www.theregister.com/2019/07/11/skylab_reentry_at_40/
[15] https://www.theregister.com/2022/08/02/china_rocket_splashdown/
[16] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2Yuqbs7Gzo0k2w6H68s2r8gAAAIs&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[17] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
Re: Raising the odds?
As long as we don't get to one in a million odds.
Re: Raising the odds?
So what are the odds of being hit by a meteor while holding a winning lottery ticket ?
Re: Raising the odds?
C'ommon, don't be shy, Why not adding a lightning strike to the recipe?
Re: Raising the odds?
Elvis crashing a UFO on Nessie?
Re: Raising the odds?
Depends on whether you socialise with the type of people who are likely to mug you for a winning lottery ticket and who also have ready access to meteors*
(Obviously the pedant in me wants to say "extremely slim because they'll be meteorites by the time they're anywhere near you", but I won't because the other pedants will point out that you could be in a space vehicle passing through the atmosphere while holding said lottery ticket)
Re: Raising the odds?
" So what are the odds of being hit by a meteor while holding a winning lottery ticket ? "
"While holding" and "a winning lottery ticket" complicate the issue greatly as they're open to multiple interpretations, but if we reduce the lottery component to "having won" and assume we mean the jackpot, the probability of a jackpot in the UK lottery is 1/ 45057474 - approximately 2.22 x 10 -8 . One in 700,000 (the probability of the meteor strike) approximates to 1.43 x 10 -6 , and you multiply the two probabilities as the events are independent. So the conjoint probability of a lottery jackpot and being concurrently wiped out by a meteor is roughly 3.17 x 10 -14 .
Re: Raising the odds?
I thought that million to one chances crop up nine times out of ten?
Lucky streak
I've heard this before: the odds of getting hit by space junk are higher than the odds of winning the lottery (jackpot, one presumes). Yet various jackpots have been won multiple times per year, and space junk has hit individuals, by my count, zero times. (I have only seen reports of near misses, and not many of those.) So what exactly are the odds of getting hit by space junk?
Picturing
A bunch of Aussies crouching around it
One of them picks up a bone
Another throws a rock at him
And the first one knocks it over the boundary for a six, then they all open a tin
1 in 700,000? That doesn't sound right to me (and needs a timescale). If annually, it means 10,000 people a year are crushed by meteors; if lifetime odds, then it's only around 150 a year. 150 is a reasonably small number but I would have thought such instances would make the news...
Raising the odds?
" We're not sure just how often a meteor hits a UK university campus, but worldwide there's a 1 in 700,000 chance of being crushed by one, making it about 64 times more likely to happen than you winning the lottery " quoted with thanks from [1]savethestudent.org . But maybe we're now raising the odds?
[1] https://www.savethestudent.org/save-money/things-more-likely-than-winning-lottery.html