Copper shortage keep green energy, tech ventures grounded
(2022/07/15)
- Reference: 1657904414
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2022/07/15/netzero_emissions_copper/
- Source link:
In a world ever more hungry for copper, a looming shortage could end green energy transition plans before they even get off the ground.
Copper is so central to transitioning from fossil fuels to sustainable energy, says a [1]report from S&P Global , that worldwide demand is likely to double by 2035 from 25 million metric tons to 50; no matter the scenario, S&P said it's unlikely the world will be able to meet it.
"The record-high level of demand would be sustained and continue to grow to 53 million metric tons in 2050 – more than all the copper consumed in the world between 1900 and 2021," S&P Global [2]said .
From oil to minerals
In a 2021 report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) described a [3]new energy paradigm slowly replacing fossil fuels – minerals, the most important being copper.
Described in the S&P report as "the metal of electrification," copper used in electric vehicles, wind, solar, and battery projects will drive much of the increase in demand. Infrastructure upgrades, like wide-scale deployment of EV charging stations, are also predicted to contribute.
[4]
The use of copper in electrified versions of traditional products – like EVs – is a massive contributor to the rise in demand, the study found.
[5]
[6]
Internal combustion vehicles of all sizes have around 24 kilograms of copper in their powertrains, the report's data shows. Swapping internal combustion for fuel cells leads to a slight increase in copper, but swapping fuel cells for batteries is where things start to really scale up. A light duty battery-powered EV (BEV) powertrain requires 60kg of copper. A medium-duty BEV requires 139kg, while a heavy-duty BEV needs a whopping 425kg of copper.
[7]
The kilograms of copper needed for different types of vehicles
The obvious solution to this inevitable problem would be to open more copper mines. That would definitely help offset coming shortages, but the catch is that those offsets would come too late.
"It currently takes 16 years, on average, to develop a new mine, meaning that a new mine seeking permission today would not become productive in time to accommodate the demand spike," S&P said, quoting an IEA study.
Substitution of other metals – like aluminum – and recycling of copper reportedly won't be enough to meet projected demand either, S&P's data shows.
[8]
Demand is already high too. Copper, often considered an economic bellwether due to its use in multiple industries, [9]spiked in price at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
[10]Panasonic picks Kansas for $4b EV battery plant
[11]2050 carbon emission goals need nuclear to succeed, says International Energy Agency
[12]Fusion won't avert need for climate change 'sacrifice', says nuclear energy expert
[13]Supermicro CEO would like it if you could all build new, greener datacenters
Yet like other industries in the pandemic, copper prices [14]have now dropped to late-2020 prices; another indicator of wider economic contraction.
If the world makes the leap from oil to batteries, copper shortages could also cause problems far beyond the manufacturing industries: The S&P report predicts copper "may emerge as a key destabilizing threat to international security."
Two scenarios, zero solutions
The study's predictions are based on two model scenarios, one that makes optimistic assumptions about mining and refining capacity and recycling, and another that projects the current copper industry into the future.
Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of S&P Global, said that [15]2050 net-zero goals will be difficult to meet. "The world has never produced so much copper in such a short time frame as would be required. On current trends, the doubling of global copper demand by 2035 would result in significant shortfalls."
Were things to continue as is, S&P predicts shortfalls reaching 10 million metric tons by 2035. By 2050, the world would only be producing 20 percent of the copper needed to meet net-zero goals.
Under its optimistic plan, deficits would still be present, but much smaller. The world would only need 1.6 million metric tons in 2035. Under either scenario, S&P said supply required to meet net-zero demands simply isn't there.
[16]
Does S&P have any tips for avoiding disaster? No, it's making no policy recommendations, only contributing to the dialog on how to reach 2050 net-zero goals.
It does, however, mention a series of operational challenges hindering growth in copper production. Infrastructure limitations, permitting and litigation, demands of local stakeholders, environmental standards, taxes and regulation, contract politicization, labor relations and resource nationalization strategies are all cited as roadblocks.
"Unless new supply for the metal of electrification comes online in a timely way, with clear political support and strategic commitment, Net-Zero Emissions by 2050 will likely remain out of reach," the report said. ®
Get our [17]Tech Resources
[1] https://ihsmarkit.com/Info/0722/futureofcopper.html
[2] https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/looming-copper-supply-shortfalls-present-a-challenge-to-achieving-net-zero-2050-goals-sp-global-study-finds-301586242.html
[3] https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-clean-energy-transitions/executive-summary
[4] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2YtHjgMjoEjF5LZbTZBvW1AAAAJM&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[5] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44YtHjgMjoEjF5LZbTZBvW1AAAAJM&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[6] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33YtHjgMjoEjF5LZbTZBvW1AAAAJM&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[7] https://regmedia.co.uk/2022/07/15/copper-by-ev-type.jpg
[8] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44YtHjgMjoEjF5LZbTZBvW1AAAAJM&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[9] https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/commodities/hg:cmx
[10] https://www.theregister.com/2022/07/14/panasonic_picks_kansas_for_new_ev_battery_plant/
[11] https://www.theregister.com/2022/07/01/2050_carbon_emission_goals_need/
[12] https://www.theregister.com/2022/05/31/fusion_no_answer_to_climate/
[13] https://www.theregister.com/2022/05/30/supermicro_green_datacenters/
[14] https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/14/copper-prices-are-signaling-investors-are-negative-on-the-economy-anz.html
[15] https://www.theregister.com/2022/07/01/2050_carbon_emission_goals_need/
[16] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33YtHjgMjoEjF5LZbTZBvW1AAAAJM&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[17] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
Copper is so central to transitioning from fossil fuels to sustainable energy, says a [1]report from S&P Global , that worldwide demand is likely to double by 2035 from 25 million metric tons to 50; no matter the scenario, S&P said it's unlikely the world will be able to meet it.
"The record-high level of demand would be sustained and continue to grow to 53 million metric tons in 2050 – more than all the copper consumed in the world between 1900 and 2021," S&P Global [2]said .
From oil to minerals
In a 2021 report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) described a [3]new energy paradigm slowly replacing fossil fuels – minerals, the most important being copper.
Described in the S&P report as "the metal of electrification," copper used in electric vehicles, wind, solar, and battery projects will drive much of the increase in demand. Infrastructure upgrades, like wide-scale deployment of EV charging stations, are also predicted to contribute.
[4]
The use of copper in electrified versions of traditional products – like EVs – is a massive contributor to the rise in demand, the study found.
[5]
[6]
Internal combustion vehicles of all sizes have around 24 kilograms of copper in their powertrains, the report's data shows. Swapping internal combustion for fuel cells leads to a slight increase in copper, but swapping fuel cells for batteries is where things start to really scale up. A light duty battery-powered EV (BEV) powertrain requires 60kg of copper. A medium-duty BEV requires 139kg, while a heavy-duty BEV needs a whopping 425kg of copper.
[7]
The kilograms of copper needed for different types of vehicles
The obvious solution to this inevitable problem would be to open more copper mines. That would definitely help offset coming shortages, but the catch is that those offsets would come too late.
"It currently takes 16 years, on average, to develop a new mine, meaning that a new mine seeking permission today would not become productive in time to accommodate the demand spike," S&P said, quoting an IEA study.
Substitution of other metals – like aluminum – and recycling of copper reportedly won't be enough to meet projected demand either, S&P's data shows.
[8]
Demand is already high too. Copper, often considered an economic bellwether due to its use in multiple industries, [9]spiked in price at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
[10]Panasonic picks Kansas for $4b EV battery plant
[11]2050 carbon emission goals need nuclear to succeed, says International Energy Agency
[12]Fusion won't avert need for climate change 'sacrifice', says nuclear energy expert
[13]Supermicro CEO would like it if you could all build new, greener datacenters
Yet like other industries in the pandemic, copper prices [14]have now dropped to late-2020 prices; another indicator of wider economic contraction.
If the world makes the leap from oil to batteries, copper shortages could also cause problems far beyond the manufacturing industries: The S&P report predicts copper "may emerge as a key destabilizing threat to international security."
Two scenarios, zero solutions
The study's predictions are based on two model scenarios, one that makes optimistic assumptions about mining and refining capacity and recycling, and another that projects the current copper industry into the future.
Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of S&P Global, said that [15]2050 net-zero goals will be difficult to meet. "The world has never produced so much copper in such a short time frame as would be required. On current trends, the doubling of global copper demand by 2035 would result in significant shortfalls."
Were things to continue as is, S&P predicts shortfalls reaching 10 million metric tons by 2035. By 2050, the world would only be producing 20 percent of the copper needed to meet net-zero goals.
Under its optimistic plan, deficits would still be present, but much smaller. The world would only need 1.6 million metric tons in 2035. Under either scenario, S&P said supply required to meet net-zero demands simply isn't there.
[16]
Does S&P have any tips for avoiding disaster? No, it's making no policy recommendations, only contributing to the dialog on how to reach 2050 net-zero goals.
It does, however, mention a series of operational challenges hindering growth in copper production. Infrastructure limitations, permitting and litigation, demands of local stakeholders, environmental standards, taxes and regulation, contract politicization, labor relations and resource nationalization strategies are all cited as roadblocks.
"Unless new supply for the metal of electrification comes online in a timely way, with clear political support and strategic commitment, Net-Zero Emissions by 2050 will likely remain out of reach," the report said. ®
Get our [17]Tech Resources
[1] https://ihsmarkit.com/Info/0722/futureofcopper.html
[2] https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/looming-copper-supply-shortfalls-present-a-challenge-to-achieving-net-zero-2050-goals-sp-global-study-finds-301586242.html
[3] https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-clean-energy-transitions/executive-summary
[4] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2YtHjgMjoEjF5LZbTZBvW1AAAAJM&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[5] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44YtHjgMjoEjF5LZbTZBvW1AAAAJM&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[6] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33YtHjgMjoEjF5LZbTZBvW1AAAAJM&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[7] https://regmedia.co.uk/2022/07/15/copper-by-ev-type.jpg
[8] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44YtHjgMjoEjF5LZbTZBvW1AAAAJM&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[9] https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/commodities/hg:cmx
[10] https://www.theregister.com/2022/07/14/panasonic_picks_kansas_for_new_ev_battery_plant/
[11] https://www.theregister.com/2022/07/01/2050_carbon_emission_goals_need/
[12] https://www.theregister.com/2022/05/31/fusion_no_answer_to_climate/
[13] https://www.theregister.com/2022/05/30/supermicro_green_datacenters/
[14] https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/14/copper-prices-are-signaling-investors-are-negative-on-the-economy-anz.html
[15] https://www.theregister.com/2022/07/01/2050_carbon_emission_goals_need/
[16] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33YtHjgMjoEjF5LZbTZBvW1AAAAJM&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[17] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
Re: Bloody batteries and solar panels
Notas Badoff
Down votes without enlightening comments demonstrate pique power?
Meanwhile
DJO
Another story in another place:
"Copper price at lowest level since 2020 as fears over global economy grow"
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jul/15/copper-price-at-lowest-level-since-2020-as-fears-over-global-economy-grow-inflation
Might be a good time to stockpile copper if you have a few £million and a warehouse standing idle.
Re: Meanwhile
Yet Another Anonymous coward
Wasn't some American buying $M of Copper cents from the US mint - because the copper is worth more than the face value ?
Then they introduced a law making it illegal to "deface" ie melt down, currency
Going nowhere chop-chop
Anonymous Coward
Those requirements — 24kg --> 60kg / 139 kg / 425kg — mean you would have to chop up and recycle several ICE cars to make one new EV car?
That'd mean an American family would have to downsize to just the one new car by trading in all the others? How many old tuk-tuks to make [1]one new tuk-tuk ?
You know that old joke about Soviet Russia and new cars? The one that ends with the line "The plumber is coming in the morning" ? Will those be lead pipes or wooden?
[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lvK5HhF9wWc
YetAnotherXyzzy
A healthy reminder that everything involves trade offs. To protect our environment (and we should), we'll need to open more copper mines, which are understandably not popular with eco campaigners. If we let the perfect be the enemy of the good we'll never make any progress.
Bloody batteries and solar panels
Other technologies can make efficient use of copper, but batteries and solar panels cannot.
The reason is voltage: High voltage equipment only needs a small amount of current to transfer a high power, lower voltage systems need more current, and power losses due to resistive heating in the copper wire go as the square of current (I^2 R).
Lithium battery cells only produce about 4 volts, and solar cells only produce 1 volt. To have more volts, you need more cells in series i.e. more points-of-failure in series, so high-voltage batteries and high-voltage solar panels are unreliable, because one failure in a string of 1000 series-connected cells will disable the whole string. So batteries and solar cells tend to operate at low voltages and high currents, i.e. they need lots and lots of copper.
If I want to make a 10kW solar panel, I could either use 1000 cells in series at 10A, or 100 cells in series at 100A. The latter is 10 times more reliable, by some reliability metric. But it requires 10 times more copper to push 10kW around at 100A with the same losses than it does to push the same 10kW around 10A.
So either I go for low-reliability, or use more copper to reduce the resistance.
Motors, transformers and generators on the other hand, don't have electrochemical or photovoltaic cells in series, they just have longer coils of wire to generate higher voltages. It's easy to make a high voltage generator or transformer, we just need good insulation, and that insulation doesn't really degrade much with time, provided it is kept at a sensible temperature. The reliability of motors and transformers scales much better with voltage than it does for batteries and solar cells.
Batteries also have the problem of balancing of course. so the more cells in series, the more that small variations in cell capacity will reduce the overall capacity: Because the whole series string takes the same current, and if any one cell goes below 2V or above 4.4V, the whole pack is in serious trouble.
The next problem I can see with copper, is low-voltage (240V) local power distribution. Again, losses go as I^2 R, and the cable under my road is rated for 400 Amps. One electric shower is 40A, one EV charger is 40A, and one heat pump is 40A. But my street has 30 houses, so the underground cable regularly overheats and fails. (and while doing so, it is incredibly inefficient)
As the cable is overloaded, it heats up, and the power lost in the cable goes with the square of current as voltage is lost across the cable resistance. So when I turn my shower on, the lights dim slightly as the voltage drops.
If I bothered to, I could even measure this voltage drop and calculate the resistance (and the power loss) in the local mains distribution. But on average it is around 15% just for the last leg between the 11kV-240V substation and your house.
The kicker is that any electronic DC-DC load such as a computer, battery charger, or "inverter" appliance will automatically draw more current as the input voltage drops. This leads to exploding underground cables because as the voltage drops due to overload, the DC-DC regulator tries to keep a constant power, which leads to more current, and remember losses go as I^2 R. Even R is not constant, it goes up with temperature.
So TLDR, expect power cuts on Monday and Tuesday as more people fire up their air con units. Grid transformers may overheat. We may also run out of cooling water for some power stations too.