I love the Linux desktop, but that doesn't mean I don't see its problems all too well
- Reference: 1654677014
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2022/06/08/linux_desktop_blues/
- Source link:
Proven pointed out that [2]Distrowatch currently lists 270 – count 'em – Linux distros. Of course, no one can look at all of those. But, having covered the Linux desktop since the big interface debate was between Bash and [3]zsh rather than GNOME vs KDE, and being the editor-in-chief of a now-departed publication called Linux Desktop, I think I've used more of them than anyone else who also has a life beyond the PC. In short, [4]I love the Linux desktop .
But that's not what Linux desktop fans want. They want Windows crushed and bleeding underneath the Linux juggernaut
Many Linux desktop distros are great. I've been a big [5]Linux Mint fan for years now. I'm also fond, in no particular order, of [6]Fedora , [7]openSUSE , [8]Ubuntu , and [9]MX Linux . But you know what? That's a problem right there.
We have many excellent Linux desktop distros, which means none of them can gain enough market share to make any real dent in the overall market.
It's been like that since people first started talking about Linux stomping on Windows on the desktop. But dream as we might of a true year of the Linux desktop, it won't happen. As Forrester senior analyst Andrew Hewitt recently pointed out: "Overall, [10]just 1 percent of employees report usage of Linux on their primary laptop used for work. That's compared to 60 percent that still use Windows... It is very unlikely that Linux will overtake Windows as the main operating system."
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He's not wrong.
[12]
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That's not to say that Linux can't be a successful end-user environment. It is. Indeed, you can argue that Linux, not Windows, is the most successful end-user operating system. That's because there are [14]over 3 billion Android phones out there and Android is just a smartphone-specialized Linux distro.
It's not the only Linux hiding in plain sight. Chromebooks, which you'll find in every school in the land, and in my travel bag, are everywhere. Chrome OS is simply Chrome reworked as a web browser and interface [15]on top of Linux .
[16]
Add it all up and you can say with a straight face that Linux has actually long been the most popular end-user OS of all.
But that's not what Linux desktop fans want. They want Windows crushed and bleeding underneath the Linux juggernaut.
Sorry. That's not happening. Linus Torvalds already told us why we'll never see a classic Linux desktop on every PC: [17]fragmentation .
[18]Sick of Windows but can't afford a Mac? Consult our cynic's guide to desktop Linux
[19]Version 251 of systemd coming soon to a Linux distro near you
[20]The sad state of Linux desktop diversity: 21 environments, just 2 designs
[21]Unity and Trinity: New releases for forks of abandoned Linux desktops
Think about it. Besides over 200 distros, there are [22]21 different desktop interfaces and over half-a-dozen different major ways to install software such as the [23]Debian Package Management System (DPKG), [24]Red Hat Package Manager (RPM), [25]Pacman , [26]Zypper , and all too many others. Then there are all the newer containerized ways to install programs including [27]Flatpak , [28]Snap , and [29]AppImage .
I can barely keep them all straight and that's part of my job! How can you expect ordinary users to make sense of it all? You can't.
[30]
None of the major Linux distributors – [31]Canonical , [32]Red Hat , and [33]SUSE – really care about the Linux desktop. Sure, they have them. They're also major desktop influencers. But their cash comes from servers, containers, the cloud, and the Internet of Things (IoT). The desktop? Please. We should just be glad they spend as many resources as they do on them.
Now, all this said, I don't want you to get the impression that I don't think the conventional Linux desktop is important. I do. In fact, I think it's critical.
Microsoft, you see, is abandoning the traditional PC-based desktop. Oh, Windows isn't going away, but it is moving. In its crystal ball, [34]Microsoft sees Azure-based Desktop-as-a-Service (DaaS) as its future . Sure, Windows users will still see what looks like a PC on their desk, but really it will just be a smart terminal hooked into a Windows 365 Cloud PC. The real computing smarts will be in the cloud.
That means that the future of a true desktop operating system will lie in the hands of Apple with macOS and us with Linux. As someone who remembers the transition from centrally controlled mainframes and minicomputers to individually empowered PCs, I do not want to return to a world where all power belongs to Microsoft or any other company.
The Linux desktop will never be as big as Windows once was. Between DaaS's rise and the fall of the desktop to smartphones, it can't be. But it may yet, by default, become the most popular true conventional desktop.
So will 2028 be the year of the Linux desktop? What do you think? ®
Get our [35]Tech Resources
[1] https://www.theregister.com/2022/05/31/the_cynics_guide_to_linux/
[2] https://distrowatch.com/
[3] https://www.zsh.org/
[4] https://www.theregister.com/2022/04/13/linux_column/
[5] https://linuxmint.com/
[6] https://getfedora.org/
[7] https://www.opensuse.org/
[8] https://ubuntu.com/
[9] https://mxlinux.org/
[10] https://www.windowscentral.com/can-linux-win-desktop-pc
[11] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_software/oses&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2YqBzQihn5T3m254-dxiA6QAAABY&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[12] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_software/oses&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44YqBzQihn5T3m254-dxiA6QAAABY&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[13] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_software/oses&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33YqBzQihn5T3m254-dxiA6QAAABY&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[14] https://www.theregister.com/2021/08/25/linux_kernel_30_years_old/
[15] https://www.zdnet.com/article/the-secret-origins-of-googles-chrome-os/
[16] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_software/oses&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44YqBzQihn5T3m254-dxiA6QAAABY&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[17] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VHFdoFKDuQA
[18] https://www.theregister.com/2022/05/31/the_cynics_guide_to_linux/
[19] https://www.theregister.com/2022/05/24/version_251_of_systemd_released/
[20] https://www.theregister.com/2022/05/17/linux_desktop_feature/
[21] https://www.theregister.com/2022/05/04/unity_trinity_desktops/
[22] https://www.theregister.com/2022/05/17/linux_desktop_feature/
[23] https://www.debian.org/doc/manuals/debian-reference/ch02.en.html
[24] https://access.redhat.com/documentation/en-us/red_hat_enterprise_linux/5/html/deployment_guide/ch-rpm
[25] https://wiki.archlinux.org/title/Pacman
[26] https://en.opensuse.org/Portal:Zypper
[27] https://flatpak.org/
[28] https://snapcraft.io/
[29] https://appimage.org/
[30] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_software/oses&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33YqBzQihn5T3m254-dxiA6QAAABY&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[31] https://canonical.com/
[32] https://www.redhat.com/en
[33] https://www.suse.com/
[34] https://www.computerworld.com/article/3656694/we-re-one-step-closer-to-windows-in-the-cloud.html
[35] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
Re: Computing smarts in the cloud
I hate this only cloud mentality. Do these people never travel? Never end up in the countryside? Never have internet issues? Do we all down tools if the internet goes out? I have had no internet for 3-4 days whilst working in Africa. Hell, I have had close to no internet at all in my parents house in Norfolk for years.
How much of this throttled bandwidth in areas of poor internet is because everyone is streaming and re-streaming their favourite shows and albums rather than downloading once? Soon we can do this with everything!? Progress??
Re: Computing smarts in the cloud
DaaS is also very expensive considering the requirements of most users.
For 99% of office work, all you really need is web browser and any OS. If you have a 365 subscription, try using all the Office Apps in browser form - they're surprisingly good.
I'm just surprised that MS haven't come up with a browser only version of Windows that hooks into OneDrive, Office 365 etc.
Shell-shock-trauma (of sorts)
My first work desktop was an XTerm, hooked up via 10base2, which ran hrough the whole institute. It had graphical capabilities, I even developed some LabVIEW stuff on it (way back when rubber boots were still made of wood). It was... yeah, slower than a five day test match. The single point of failure nature (ok, the long single chain of possible failures) was nasty, much pulling of hair, breaking of colleagues knuckles (or, that didn't happen, but it was close and warranted). I'm not going back there. I'm sure that there are many in this forum whose experience goes back further, back into the Eemian, or even to the time when dinosaurs still roamed the earth (or at least when the terminals had green on black text and then changed to beige on black).
That aside, I think the article is spot on, and it echoes much of what I think (and read/hear elsewhere). The biggest advantage, for me, is that I am not tied to a certain distro's view (desktop, systemd/init/whatever, sound system / demons, XFree / XOrg / whatever), and this is certainly a huge weakness at the same time, and likely a fatal one. The next big problem is the hunt for "new, shiny-shiny" and the neglect of documentation and reliability (and continuity[*]), because let's face it: doing something new and exciting is more fun (and we have all been guilty of this, or most of us, I'm sure).
---> sleeves up, I'll write some documentation. Future /me/ will appreciate the effort.
[*] yes, I use Debian "rusty" on servers (three flavours of Debian: rusty, stale and broken - sorry to the great guys and gals doing the amazing work! I actually like it that way.)
Linux has been my daily driver for years. Does fragmentation bother me? No. On the contrary it makes it easier for me to have exactly the desktop I need without some handful of vendors trying to double guess some small choice of arrangements which will [dis]please me and everyone else simultaneously.
I've used Xubuntu for many years, and will probably stick with it until I can't adequately vanquish another systemd dragon. I've used Linux desktops since I gave up a Sun workstation in the 90s, though Windows occasionally demands obesiance, most recently with a Kia satnav upgrade. But VMware handles that.
A much deeper dive into the problem: https://itvision.altervista.org/why.linux.is.not.ready.for.the.desktop.current.html
What if the number of distros increases?
Every day I ignore over 260 of the distros currently listed on DistroWatch. I am sure that with no extra effort I could ignore a thousand or even ten thousand. Likewise if the least popular half of those 270 distros disappeared, perhaps 300 people would notice, 200 would care and most of them would find they ended up better off. I did a very brief check of the top end of that bottom half and found:
a) Distributions that are so young that the creator has not got bored of it yet.
b) Distributions that have not been updated for at least 5 years.
c) Single purpose distributions like GParted Live.
[GParted Live is a disk partitioning GUI that fits on a [1]CD business card . There was a time when I would have found such a thing useful. These days I can put a full fat distribution on a µSD card, in a full size SDHC card converter, in a USB→SDHC converter. Far easier to carry around than a USB BlueRay player and a powered USB hub (so it will work with the old low power USB interfaces).]
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bootable_business_card
"They want Windows crushed and bleeding underneath the Linux juggernaut."
That is an invention of prattling children.
Quite frankly, I don't give a shit about Windows. It is completely irrelevant to me, and has been for well over 20 years on a personal basis[0], and over a dozen on a professional and "friends and family support" level. If it went away tomorrow, I probably wouldn't be affected at all.
I use Linux and BSD because they work the way I need and want them to. Windows, more often than not, did not, so I shit-canned it. ... The Slackware distribution, once customized to suit me, blissfully gets out of the way and allows me to do general purpose computing as I need it to ... including making a variation that is friendly to my computer illiterate DearOldMum and Great Aunt, and computer end-user Wife. Can't ask for much more than that out of an OS.
[0] One exception ... the lone, air-gapped Win2K machine running AutoCAD2K, which I still haven't managed to find the time to fully extract myself from.
There used to be a reason ...
Many many years ago it was hard to buy a computer without paying Microsoft tax. Years ago it was hard to buy a laptop without paying Microsoft. You could buy without Windows installed but you would still be paying the license fee bundled with the hardware. It was in theory possible to claw back the money from the vendor, but the vendor would not get their money back from Microsoft.
These days avoiding the Microsoft tax is a minor inconvenience and as far as I am concerned Microsoft exist only to provide entertaining articles on TheRegister.
That's because there are over 3 billion Android phones out there and Android is just a smartphone-specialized Linux distro.
Not to mention pretty much every home router, most commercial web servers, in-vehicle (land & sea) displays, smart TVs etc, etc.. Heck, if you change the word from Linux to GNU - let's face it, the kernel & device drivers would be useless without the utilities - you're including every iThing , Blackberry, Cisco/Sky box & VMware host too and lots of others I can't bring to mind right now. The C & C++ runtimes even on Windows are POSIXy.
I'm just hoping that by 2038 everybody's time_t is 64-bit.
Excellent article facing facts. It's important not to consider this problem from the perspective of an experienced linux user who enjoys the options and choice. Instead try and approach it from the point of view of an ordinary computer user considering a purchase of their next computer. Imagine their full range of experiences.
Always remember "it's not all about me" and "I'm perfectly happy with my little world so why isn't everyone else?" Indignant denial won't fix this.I suspect most of us would like it fixed.
Instead try and approach it from the point of view of an ordinary computer user considering a purchase of their next computer. Imagine their full range of experiences
Why? Why do I care about them? They can buy Windows/Apple. I don't care. Let them do what suits THEM and I will do what suits ME.
If they ask me, I will tell them what I use and why, and they can make up their mind, and ask me for help or not.
>> But that's not what Linux desktop fans want. They want Windows crushed and bleeding underneath the Linux juggernaut. <<
Are you sure?
I couldn't care less whether anyone else uses Linux on the desktop. And I relish the ability to be able to tailor my desktop to my specific requirements.
My take is that computers should do what I want them to do, not that I should do what the computer wants me to do.
Linux gives me that - Windows and MacOS definitely don't.
Choosing to choose
The common thing about Windows, Android, ChromeOS is that the user didn't make a choice. The OS arrived pre-installed and generally is good enough to satisfy tthe needs of most users. Unsurprisingly Linux is also dominant on servers since if you are firing up a VPS or dedicated server you tick the Debian/Ubuntu etc box on the datacentre webpage and it is all magically ready for use by the time you can login.
The next common thing about users is they hate change. Even modest 'enhancements' by Microsoft are guaranteed to bring howls of protest in these columns from people who want it to work the way it did. Maybe they can round a few corners but that's pushing it ;-)
Given there is zero availability of Linux in the mainline desktop/laptop market it follows that even a 1% market user share is amazing. Given that expecting an average user to find, download, burn a USB stick, navigate numerous 'this will destroy your disk data' messages - why would anybody except the burning zealot do this and then find the screen looks a bit odd and the icons aren't in the right place - and where is MS Office?
Frankly Linux desktop is for the dedicated. You put some effort into and, if you are smart, you can reap enormous benefits. One of which is ironically to shape the desktop to your unique customised preferences - and even more importantly - keep them that way untouched by some marketeers idea of improvement. We, Linux users, are some of the most conservative users re-living the glory days when the user was in charge and not Redmond or Cupertino.
If you really want big time Linux [proper] desktop - all you have to do is make it a one-click free upgrade to Android or ChromeOS. I don't think that's in the Google business plan ...
Computing smarts in the cloud
Sure, Windows users will still see what looks like a PC on their desk, but really it will just be a smart terminal hooked into a Windows 365 Cloud PC. The real computing smarts will be in the cloud.
And you think the hardware manufacturers will be OK with this? Hell, if the smarts are in the cloud, a Raspberry Pi will suffice.