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  ARM Give a man a fire and he's warm for a day, but set fire to him and he's warm for the rest of his life (Terry Pratchett, Jingo)

China 'must seize TSMC' if the US were to impose sanctions

(2022/06/07)


China should seize Taiwan to gain control of TSMC if the US and its allies impose sanctions against the Middle Kingdom like those now in place against Russia, according to a prominent Chinese economist.

The move follows the suggestion last year that Taiwan should be prepared to [1]destroy its semiconductor industry if China were to invade.

This latest development comes in a speech by Chen Wenling, chief economist for the [2]China Center for International Economic Exchanges , delivered at the China-US Forum hosted by the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China at the end of May. The text of the speech was posted to the [3]Guancha (Observer) online news site.

[4]

In the speech, Chen opened by saying that China and the US needs to ease the hostile relations between them, and that a confrontation between the two powers would be "a disaster for mankind."

[5]

[6]

However, she then claimed the US was seeking to isolate China, citing the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) agreements as attempts by the US to create two large "anti-China" trade bodies, although the US pulled out of the former and the latter was cancelled because of disagreements.

Echoing many concerns in the West, Chen said that China needs to take steps to secure its industrial chain and supply chain, and make strategic preparations to "deal with the United States' insistence on breaking the chain and containing it," according to a translation of the text.

[7]

This means that if the US and allies imposed sanctions on China like those deployed against Russia, China "must recover Taiwan" and "seize TSMC, a company that originally belonged to China."

Chen claimed that "they are speeding up the transfer to the United States, and to build six factories in the United States. We must not let all the goals of the transfer be achieved," a possible reference to the [8]US CHIPS Act , which seeks to encourage the building of semiconductor fabrication plants on US soil, which may include funding going to TSMC for chipmaking facilities it is building in Arizona.

While alarming, Chen's speech appears to suggest that China should only take this action as retaliation to threats against its economic security, and there is no reason to believe that sanctions comparable to those on Russia are likely unless China becomes involved in a similar act of hostility against another country.

[9]Taiwan claims 'breakthrough' in EU semiconductor cooperation talks

[10]Toyota cuts vehicle production over global chip shortage

[11]China will produce one in five of the chips it uses in 2026, says analyst

[12]TSMC, Samsung plan price hikes for chip designers – reports

Any attempt by China to seize Taiwan and TSMC might be futile anyway, if the Taiwanese government were to adopt the scorched-earth policy proposed last year in a paper from a US Army War College.

This suggested that Taiwan's best deterrent against potential Chinese aggression is to put in place a [13]credible strategy to destroy its semiconductor manufacturing facilities if an invasion were to occur, thus depriving China of the supply of much of its semiconductors. As well as TSMC, the island also has facilities owned by Chinese chipmaker Semiconductor Manufacturing International Company (SMIC).

[14]

Taiwan is seen as vital by both the US and China because it accounts for such [15]a large part of the world's semiconductor manufacturing capacity . Currently, the island has 48 per cent of the global foundry market and 61 per cent of the world's capacity to fabricate chips using a 16nm process node or smaller.

This is especially true for China, which last year produced [16]only one in six of the chips that its industries used, despite setting an ambitious goal to be 70 percent self-sufficient in semiconductors by 2025.

TSMC recently reported [17]revenue for the first quarter of 2022 of $17.6 billion, a 36 percent jump on the same quarter a year ago. The company estimated sales will continue growing at similar rate for the current quarter, based on high demand seen from the automotive and high performance computing markets. ®

Get our [18]Tech Resources



[1] https://www.theregister.com/2022/01/05/taiwan_should_destory_tsmc_paper/

[2] http://english.cciee.org.cn/

[3] https://www.guancha.cn/chenwenling/2022_06_06_643134_1.shtml

[4] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/systems&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2Yp92Hw06IDh9X3mPqiA1egAAAAM&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0

[5] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/systems&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44Yp92Hw06IDh9X3mPqiA1egAAAAM&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0

[6] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/systems&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33Yp92Hw06IDh9X3mPqiA1egAAAAM&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0

[7] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/systems&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44Yp92Hw06IDh9X3mPqiA1egAAAAM&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0

[8] https://www.theregister.com/2022/04/07/biden_us_chip_fabs_meeting/

[9] https://www.theregister.com/2022/06/02/taiwan_claims_breakthrough_in_eu/

[10] https://www.theregister.com/2022/05/24/chip_shortages_hit_toyota/

[11] https://www.theregister.com/2022/05/19/china_chip_production_prediction/

[12] https://www.theregister.com/2022/05/13/tsmc_samsung_price_hikes/

[13] https://www.theregister.com/2022/01/05/taiwan_should_destory_tsmc_paper/

[14] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/systems&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33Yp92Hw06IDh9X3mPqiA1egAAAAM&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0

[15] https://www.theregister.com/2022/04/26/trendforce_foundry_capacity/

[16] https://www.theregister.com/2022/05/19/china_chip_production_prediction/

[17] https://www.theregister.com/2022/04/14/tsmcs_chip_empire_keeps_growing/

[18] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/



J.G.Harston

"TSMC, a company that originally belonged to China"

That's a new one.

Frist!

keith_w

Didn't you know that everything originally belonged to China. Personally I am surprised that they have not claimed at least the western shores of North America if not the entire continent, based on the visit of the Chinese admiral and his fleet, which was destroyed on his return on the orders of the emperor.

lglethal

Give them time...

Peter2

I take it that you've been reading 1421?

You might want to cast your eye over this:-

[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gavin_Menzies

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gavin_Menzies

Eecahmap

Or perhaps _The Years of Rice and Salt_:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Years_of_Rice_and_Salt

elsergiovolador

Well, Taiwan is the real China...

Arthur the cat

Well, Taiwan is the real China...

in much the same way as Shetland is the real Britain.

Paul Crawford

The irony is that China, had it gone down the democratic road and not done Tienanmen Square and more recently the Hong Kong suppression, would have had a very good chance for peaceful reunification. Or at least an open borders policy like the EU members enjoy, and no sabres need be rattled.

It is not the Chinese people, or Chinese culture, that is the problem. It is all down to the CCP.

elsergiovolador

It is not the Chinese people, or Chinese culture, that is the problem. It is all down to the CCP.

No. This is naive thinking. Chinese people like CPC, that's why it exists. If they didn't like it then they would have it gotten rid of one way or another.

Potemkine!

Chinese people like CPC, that's why it exists

Have Chinese people the choice not to like the CPC without going to Laogai?

Anonymous Coward

> No. This is naive thinking. Chinese people like CPC, that's why it exists. If they didn't like it then they would have it gotten rid of one way or another.

Speaking of naive thinking!

The people of Hong Kong didn't want the CCP, and they resisted its influence. Yet the CCP decided to crush their will and rule them even harder.

The Chinese people can't get rid of the CCP because the CCP controls the army; the guns and tanks, planes and nukes; and the people do not.

> CPC

Interestingly, the only people who seem to use "CPC", rather than the far more common "CCP", seem to be official CCP state organs and those who do their bidding.

VoiceOfTruth

The CCP has raised hundreds of millions out of poverty. Meanwhile the 'free' capitalist west depends on crapping on a very large number of people to survive. There are the 1% worth trillions.

elsergiovolador

The CCP has raised hundreds of millions out of poverty.

Because they adopted capitalism

Meanwhile the 'free' capitalist west depends on crapping on a very large number of people to survive.

Ah okay because China does not crap on very large number of people ;-)

Potemkine!

CCP killed [1]tens of millions of Chinese people . [2]CCP has sent hundred of millions of Chinese people into poverty. .

Abandoning Marxist economy was the way for China to make people less poor.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_killings_under_communist_regimes#People's_Republic_of_China

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Leap_Forward#Consequences

Anonymous Coward

It's very easy to "raise" people out of poverty, when you have the power and will to change the definition of "poverty", as the CCP did in order to claim success on Xi's 5-year poverty plan.

If you really want to see people who're being crapped on by a nation's elites, go out into the Chinese countryside and see how people live.

ZenaB

Having done this, you have to realise that this is how the vast majority of the country used to live. From what the Chinese people can see, the CCP have done them *very* well.

Your comment is basically the same as "go see the fields of homeless tents in California/Texas/etc" - yeah some people lose out, no society is perfect. But I bet you the Chinese poor are generally happier than the Western poor :/

Anonymous Coward

You know its amazing, I can only think at this point that Fallout was made by people from the future or the CCP are huge fans of its lore and are eager for it to become reality.

As in the days of the pharoahs

An_Old_Dog

"I'm sorry, valued slave^H^H^H^H^H TSMC worker, the information in your head is too strategically-valuable to be allowed to fall into enemy hands. You will be killed to prevent this from happening."

(icon for scorched-earth/scorched-employee policy)

Potemkine!

Because our economical and political leaders sold most of the western industries to China and delocalized so many jobs there, there will be no sanction against China similar to the ones against Russia.

TSMC should expect a couple of paratroops divisions jumping on the factories to avoid any destruction

BOOK There is a theory which states that if ever anyone
discovers
exactly what the Universe is for and why it is
here, it will
instantly disappear and be replaced by something
even more
bizarrely inexeplicable.
There is another theory which states that this has
already happened.

- Introduction to Fit the Seventh.