4G to dominate cellular IoT until 2028, when 5G takes over
- Reference: 1652268014
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2022/05/11/future_iot_connectivity/
- Source link:
"With the ongoing sunset of 2G and 3G networks across the world, most of the demand has been shifting to LPWA, 4G Cat 1 and 4G Cat 1 bis technologies until now," said senior research analyst Soumen Mandal in a [1]teaser of research released on Monday.
Mandal acknowledged that NB-IoT will still remain popular in parts of Asia, and Europe, while 4G Cat 1-based modules will continue to grow for a few more years.
[2]
2028 was marked as the year shipments of 5G cellular modules will exceed 4G devices, with the analyst willing to designate 2027 as the start of the "5G era."
[3]
[4]
Counterpoint Research said the transition from 4G to 5G will be faster than previous transitions – 2G to 3G or Low Power Wide Area (LPWA) to 4G.
In 2030, shipments of all cellular modules will exceed 1.2 billion units – and join a fleet of 2.5 billion 5G units already shipped.
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[6]At 9 for every 100 workers, robots are rife in Singapore – so we decided to visit them
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The researcher also predicted that when 5G does finally take over, mass adoption of IoT applications involving everything from connected cars to healthcare to wearables will be the driver.
6G allegedly won't appear until 2029, and will initially be deployed for high-end enterprise applications and broadband services. But just because 5G will dominate doesn't mean 4G, LPWA, and others will go away, according to Counterpoint's Neil Shah.
[9]
Counterpoint Research
IOT connectivity predictions. Click to enlarge
"5G will be preferred for Industrial 4.0 (like robotics, automation and digital twins), router/CPE (like FWA and private networks) and automotive (like connected and autonomous mobility) applications, LPWA will be preferred for utilities (smart meter) and 4G Cat 1 bis and 5G RedCap for POS applications," said the research veep.
Companies are already preparing for this future of interactive machines as they automate or add robots into old factories.
[10]
Some regions, like Asia, which have high-volume manufacturing, are already [11]loaded up with robots and automated equipment.
The International Federation of Robotics reported Asia's average robot density had an 18 per cent CAGR from 2015 until 2020.
Meanwhile, Germany's Siemens and Bosch are currently [12]retrofitting their own factories with private 5G networks and testing autonomous vehicles that communicate with each other on the 5G network inside the factory and unconnected from public networks. ®
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[1] https://www.counterpointresearch.com/global-cellular-iot-module-forecast-2030/
[2] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/networks&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2YnvdqNidwOPt-UXcuqK@0AAAAEU&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[3] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/networks&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44YnvdqNidwOPt-UXcuqK@0AAAAEU&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[4] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/networks&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33YnvdqNidwOPt-UXcuqK@0AAAAEU&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[5] https://www.theregister.com/2021/11/03/tech_factory_retrofits/
[6] https://www.theregister.com/2022/01/05/singapore_robot_holiday/
[7] https://www.theregister.com/2022/01/17/edge_computing_set_for_growth/
[8] https://www.theregister.com/2022/01/31/samsung_intel_swap/
[9] https://regmedia.co.uk/2022/05/11/supplied_iot_connectiivty_futures.jpg
[10] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/networks&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44YnvdqNidwOPt-UXcuqK@0AAAAEU&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[11] https://www.theregister.com/2022/01/05/singapore_robot_holiday/
[12] https://www.theregister.com/2021/11/03/tech_factory_retrofits/
[13] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
It Would Be Nice if 4G Was Treliably Available
Any 'G' would be great. Reception is perhaps fine, if you have 10,000 neighbours in your sitting room in CityVille, but move a few metres outside that hellhole and the idea of reception becomes a memory. Broadband Wi-Fi can help inside homes, but that is hardly mobile 'G' is it?
I still think 5G is unnecessary. Power hungry and the short range makes it impractical.
For almost all mobile users, that don't use it as their main internet connection at home or something daft, its pointless when 4G has a comparable downlink speed in most scenarios, and much better range/reception/power usage.
Projection defies historical mean
First of all, 5G is largely marketing blurb. The real change was to packet based infrastructure via LTE / 4G.
The research is reasonable but the chart has an uptake of 5G that is significantly faster than any comparable changes in the past. That raises a few questions.
Again marketing is in the lead here. WiFi 5 & 6 along with "5G" are driving convergence for wireless technologies: my phone already has the option to use a WiFi connection for calls where available, which is a good way to boost call quality in buildings where cell coverage will naturally be lower. Convergence should effectively increase cell density by blurring the boundaries. Higher cell density is really the only way to improve speeds for everyone.
"In 2030, shipments of all cellular modules will exceed 1.2 billion units – and join a fleet of 2.5 billion 5G units already shipped."
Damn, that's going to be a lot of landfill...