Putin threatens supply chains with counter-sanction order
- Reference: 1651643963
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2022/05/04/russian_counter_sanctions/
- Source link:
An [1]executive order issued on Tuesday explains that Russia will implement reprisals against states and international organizations that have acted against Russian interests in the wake of the invasion.
As many of Russia's likely targets have walked away from the nation, one element of the counter-sanctions – annulment of commercial agreements – won’t trouble some of those that feel Putin's ire.
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But the sanctions will also include "a ban on exporting products or raw materials manufactured or extracted in Russia when they are delivered to individuals under sanctions, or by individuals under sanctions to other individuals."
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That could be serious. Many nations rely on Russian energy exports and could not easily replace them – although if Russia were to stop selling energy to all takers it would also be cutting off a major source of its own revenue.
A raw materials ban could also bite, as Russia is a source of many minerals and other substances of importance to high technology manufacturing supply chains. For example, Russia is an important source of the neon gas that's necessary during chip manufacturing processes.
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Just what Putin has planned will be revealed within ten days – the deadline the order sets for Russia's government to publish a list of banned entities.
While the world waits for that list, Ukraine appears to be contending with a new Russian threat in cyberspace: the loss of some routes to the internet, and their replacement by services from Russian carrier Rostelecom.
Internet-watching service NetBlocks offered the following observations:
⚠️ Confirmed: Metrics indicate that internet connectivity on provider Skynet (Khersontelecom) in Russian-occupied Kherson, south Ukraine, has been partially restored and rerouted via Russia's Rostelecom instead of Ukrainian infrastructure.
📰 Background: [6]https://t.co/S0qJQ7CbNv [7]pic.twitter.com/WhlSNODuqw — NetBlocks (@netblocks) [8]May 1, 2022
Just how or why routes were changed is not known, but there are clear advantages to Russia if a state-aligned telco can observe and/or control traffic to and from Ukraine.
[9]John Deere tractors 'bricked' after Russia steals machinery from Ukraine
[10]Feds offer big rewards for info on suspected Russian Sandworm intel officers
[11]China turns cyber-espionage eyes to Russia as Ukraine invasion grinds on
Happily, Ukraine may have found an alternative the Moscow cannot control: SpaceX’s StarLink satellite broadband services. Ukraine’s vice prime minister and minister of digital transformation, Mykhailo Fedorov, on Monday shared the following information about uptake of the service:
Rough data on Starlink's usage: around 150K active users per day. This is crucial support for Ukraine's infrastructure and restoring the destroyed territories. Ukraine will stay connected no matter what. [12]pic.twitter.com/XWjyxPQJyX — Mykhailo Fedorov (@FedorovMykhailo) [13]May 2, 2022
He also shared news of repairs to Ukraine's telecoms infrastructure in locations near its capital city Kyiv. ®
Base station in Pripyat, Kyiv region. Telecom soldiers continue to restore the internet connection, so you can call your dearest people. [14]pic.twitter.com/jlbCaOBL2R — Mykhailo Fedorov (@FedorovMykhailo) [15]May 3, 2022
Get our [16]Tech Resources
[1] http://en.kremlin.ru/catalog/keywords/128/events/68347
[2] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_security/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2YnJOztidwOPt-UXcuqLyCgAAAEk&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
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[4] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_security/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33YnJOztidwOPt-UXcuqLyCgAAAEk&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
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[6] https://t.co/S0qJQ7CbNv
[7] https://t.co/WhlSNODuqw
[8] https://twitter.com/netblocks/status/1520874432046239745?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
[9] https://www.theregister.com/2022/05/02/ukrainian_tractors_deere/
[10] https://www.theregister.com/2022/04/27/feds_10m_reward_sandworm/
[11] https://www.theregister.com/2022/04/27/china-bronze-president-malware-russia/
[12] https://t.co/XWjyxPQJyX
[13] https://twitter.com/FedorovMykhailo/status/1521115986711175168?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
[14] https://t.co/jlbCaOBL2R
[15] https://twitter.com/FedorovMykhailo/status/1521480567371575297?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
[16] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
Re: You want to play hardball?
Wish we could, but he's currently at the coal pile and he's carrying an oil lantern...
Re: You want to play hardball?
I smell desperation. Mining and oil extraction equipment require parts for maintenance that Putin can no longer get. Threatening to cut of supplies of what he cannot deliver is already a pattern. He is currently hiding in an impregnable bunker. It won't be long before the strongest oligarchs see to it that he stays their for the rest of his life.
Re: You want to play hardball?
" He is currently hiding in an impregnable bunker "
Hopefully the lock breaks off on the door of his bathroom when he goes for a shit then. No one will be around to check on him, problem solved.
Re: You want to play hardball?
He is currently hiding in an impregnable bunker
Hitler hid in an impregnable bunker. And we all knew (except one person) what happened to Hitler in the end.
Re: You want to play hardball?
"Threatening to cut of supplies of what he cannot deliver... "
Unfortunately not so much the case. Russia can and at the moment is exporting almost 80 million m3 to Europe through Ukraine pipelines. NordStream pipeline is IIRC double that. Not sure what the exact figures would be right now, but about 40% of Europe gas consumption comes from Russia. Closing that off would be a huge economic hit for Russia as it's their major revenue source.
But it would also almost certainly lead to an EU-wide energy crisis. EU energy consumption is 22% gas, if 40% of that comes from Russia it's about 9% total energy. There's also a big chunk of oil products. While I can't find good numbers, we're talking 15-20% of EUs total energy consumption that would need to be saved or sourced from elsewhere. Germany, Italy, the Baltics and Bulgaria are particularly reliant on Russian oil and gas.
So far the belief has been that Putin can't finance the war without these exports, and Europe can't function normally without the imports, which is why the oil and gas has kept flowing all through the crisis. If Putin goes through with this, it would be painful for Europe for a while.
However, I think that long-term this is actually the best outcome, forcing the EU to increase it's own production via nuclear (I hope) and renewables. Particularly if Germany would rethink it's ban on nuclear.
Re: You want to play hardball?
Whilst this is inevitable the crunch point is when it happens and how long it will take to backfill the shortfall.
I don't know what facilities there are for LNG imports using ships. You need to have storage capacity when it is unloaded. Now in theory Germany has that as there was (until the lack of wind) about 10 weeks storage capacity. Whether it is in the right place to allow LNG that has been shipped to be stored again I don't know.
My guess is that storage is still well under capacity so the buffer will be limited.
There is presumably demand for LNG ships at the moment and they are very specialised so the assumption is that there is not the capacity to just make up the shortfall in the timescale.
That takes us back to square one, a very nasty short-term hit on major European economies. The knock-on will also be further increases in energy costs for everyone else so the overall impact will be wider.
Re: You want to play hardball?
Largely correct but (some of) the baltics have already dropped Russian gas and are importing lpg instead
Re: You want to play hardball?
Closing that off would be a huge economic hit for Russia
Look east. Specifically, south east asia. There are some countries that would benefit from very cheap Ural oil.
It took a long time for the US government to stop China from "sharing" oil with NK.
China also has a huge appetite with oil. Russia is one of China's biggest oil supplier. The other is Iran.
Re: You want to play hardball?
& let the world return to a saner footing?
wait .... before the invasion the main talking points where lockdowns and curfews because of some techno-mutated virus, Humanity ending with rising temperature and climate change, millions of refugees worlwide, central banks printing money without end while the banksters continue to take in billions of profits .... the world before was not sane, that's why we got this now.
Re: You want to play hardball?
None of those things led to Putin deciding to go nuts and invade Ukraine with a woefully (thankfully) unprepared military that can do nothing but try to bomb Ukraine back to the stone age.
Well apart from perhaps that Putin seemed to put himself in isolation throughout Covid reducing the number of people he was talking to, which seems to have left him only talking to the Yes men, and no one telling him he was being utterly stupid.
All those other things are the new "normal". We're changing the definition of insanity as we speak...
Re: You want to play hardball?
Professor Maersheimer (University of Chicago).
"Why the Ukraine is the West's fault."
You may not like what you hear, that doesn't make it false though.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4
Re: You want to play hardball?
> "Why the Ukraine is the West's fault." [emphasis added]
There's an interesting reason why Ukraine would like everyone to stop using the definite article in front of their country's name, see e.g. [1]Ukraine or the Ukraine: Why do some country names have 'the'?
[1] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-18233844
Re: You want to play hardball?
More like Paul Manafort's fault. It was Manafort that got that Putin puppet Yanukovych, back into power after the rigged election of 2004.
It's easy to forget Manafort works for the Russians, installing puppet leaders into democracies using black money he gets from Russia to market them.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/yanukovych-manafort-indictment-trump_n_59f72e5ae4b03cd20b82fe20
Re: You want to play hardball?
Maersheimer also said that Putin would NEVER invade Ukraine......
Re: You want to play hardball?
I'm at work so I cant watch that video, but all I will say is this.
An independent nation is free to do as it chooses, based on the will of its own people.
And maybe Russia should consider the old saying - if the people you considered friends/allies/subordinates start turning away from you and seeking new friends and allies, perhaps the problem isn't with them, or the new people they are talking to, but with yourself. Maybe Russia should think about why all those old soviet block countries turned away from them, rather than trying to bully and scare them into coming back...
But, but where am I going to get all my SPAM, now !?
or the bounces for all of the "joe job"s where your e-mail address is in the 'From' header in thousands of spam mails [less likely if SPF records are done/handled right].
And those "luxury replicas" - how HORRIBLE not having THOSE....
You want to play hardball?
Then we're refusing to buy any borsch, caviar, or vodka. See how you like them apples, nyaaaaa!
*Sigh*
I wish this war would end already. Can someone please go put the child to bed so he can sleep off the temper tantrum & let the world return to a saner footing?