One decade, 46 million units: Happy birthday, Raspberry Pi
- Reference: 1646051465
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2022/02/28/pi_at_10/
- Source link:
The Raspberry Pi team has elected to mark the milestone on 28 February, it being the last day of the month this year – for many 29 February 2012 was when units were first available. Looking back at 2012, the numbers look almost farcical when one considers how things turned out.
50,000 people downloaded this really primitive operating system for a machine that you couldn't buy!
"We were already aware that it was going to be bigger than expected," says Upton. "We had this idea of doing 1,000 or 10,000 or something... we had a couple of thousand units on order with our first contract manufacturer in China.
"Around Christmas time, when we got the first beta boards back, we put an operating system [based on Debian] online… and it had 50,000 downloads. And all you could do was run it in QEMU (there was a QEMU config you could build that was similar enough to a Raspberry Pi).
"50,000 people downloaded this really primitive operating system for a machine that you couldn't buy!" he exclaims.
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And that was when realisation dawned that demand for the hardware would be far higher than a run of 1,000, 10,000 or even 100,000 units.
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Upton tells us that approximately 46 million units have been manufactured to date. Although getting hold of one in 2022 is a bit of challenge. More on that later.
While the final iterations of those first Raspberry Pi computers, the Pi 1 Model A+ and B+, can still be purchased, for Upton it was the Raspberry Pi 2 that marked the biggest step change, despite the relatively short period before the 3 arrived in 2016.
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"Although Pi 3 kind of took out Pi 2," he says, "Pi 2 is still the impressive one, it's the one where all of the internal architectural cleverness that let us build 2836 is leveraged again to build 2837 [used for later models of the Pi 2 and the Pi 3]… you couldn't have done 3 and 3+ without doing 2 first."
After the Pi 2, Upton ranked the Zero and the latest model, the Pi 4, as significant milestones. "Every product we launch is a milestone," he jokes, "but Pi 4 really is a milestone. There's another chunky 3x of performance, it relaxed the memory constraint, it opened up multiple price points for us [thanks to the memory configurations] and again, it's the jump in performance that opens up different worlds."
Again, assuming one can actually buy one given the global shortages of components impacting every tech vendor.
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"We're running at about half a million Pis a month," says Upton. "That's not enough, it's not nothing – it's a lot of Pis… but I still think we have one to two million units of genuine customer backlog."
Upton would dearly like to flex up production, but tells us he has given up speculating when supply chain issues will ease. "I think the situation is making fools of us all," he states before quoting Stein's Law: "If something cannot go on forever, it will stop," referring to the shortages rather than demand for the computer.
[6]Raspberry Pis gain power to flash their own OSes with new network install function
[7]Out of beta and ready for data: 64-bit Raspberry Pi OS is here
[8]Buy 'em by the punnet: Raspberry Pi offers RP2040 chips in bulk
[9]Online retailers delaying sales of Raspberry Pi 4 model until 2023, thanks to a few good chips getting scarce
As for the future, a Raspberry Pi 5 is inevitable but, in a blow to those hoping for something even more exotic in the SoC, RISC-V isn't on the cards, certainly not in the timeframe for the next generation of Pi. "I can't go out today and license a RISC-V core," says Upton, citing the current state of the ecosystem, "which is even as good as the core of the Raspberry Pi 4."
"Hopefully I will in the future," he adds.
The implosion of the Nvidia/Arm deal has also reduced the chances of a RISC-V Pi (in the 2030 timeframe), down from 20 per cent to 10 per cent, according to Upton. "The ownership of the core of the de-facto standard low-power architecture by an organisation that's also a player was potentially very destabilising... and it was always going to be to the benefit of the obvious alternative architecture."
The Pi has gone far beyond its original remit, becoming popular in commercial settings even as the most "out there" incarnations on the International Space Station continue to do a sterling job in the realm of educational outreach. But what of the future? Raspberry Pi is an undoubted success story; could an acquisition be on the cards?
"I have no plans," says Upton, before perhaps softening his stance: "We're very committed to doing our engineering in Cambridge."
Also the location of chip designer Arm's HQ. ®
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[6] https://www.theregister.com/2022/02/09/raspberry_pi_network_install_beta/
[7] https://www.theregister.com/2022/02/03/64bit_raspberry_pi_os_released/
[8] https://www.theregister.com/2022/01/17/raspberries_pi_direct_launch/
[9] https://www.theregister.com/2021/12/20/raspberry_pi_delay/
[10] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
Re: "I can't go out today and license a RISC-V core,"
The Pico could've been RISC-V, but they went with ARM for their own silicon. You have to draw the conclusion that they're really not interested in open source, for all the money they've made out of it.
I think they're making a real mistake in not embracing RISC-V : their core market is still open source techie enthusiasts, who are eager for open hardware. Upton et al might one day soon wonder where all their customers went.
Re: "I can't go out today and license a RISC-V core,"
they're really not interested in open source
The Pi originally shipped with a huge binary blob containing Broadcom proprietary code. The size of that blob and the amount of closed-source code diminished over time.
The Pi team will have to speak for their own motives, but it seems to me a crucial part of the Pi's success has been in getting the price right and if that meant some foot-dragging on fully-open licensing that seems to me to be a perfectly reasonable trade-off.
Re: "I can't go out today and license a RISC-V core,"
I agree with you, and with others here who applaud what they've achieved (and for using chips that the industry had thought were waste):
- the first of its kind
- documentation and, as you say,
- price.
Remarkable.
But I do wonder if they've also missed some tricks. Look at how Pine64 riffs on their boards, with the SBC, the laptop, the phone, the watch, the tablet, the e-ink... Meanwhile RPi have left it to 3rd parties to do things like the CutiePi.
And I do kind of resent them for going after Arduino with their Pico.
Re: "I can't go out today and license a RISC-V core,"
Competition is normally a good thing, if both sides have to raise their game to get the traffic.
Minor complaint with both ecosystems. In my line of work I need folks that can deal with the down and dirty of TTL logic circuits and the like.
Still, Pi is a hell of a useful tool for getting "easy-mode" electronics out into a wider audience.
I forget the name of them exactly, but in the early 90's I recall my school having a ton of logic boards showing and/or/not gates etc that you could plug bits of stuff into. Teacher I remember set me away building a 4-bit safe lock (not very safe!!!) - which took me about 5 mins to prove (through brute force naturally). I built a half-adder out of the boards later that day. I suspect scared the bejesus out more than a few of the staff.
Of course, having used the C64 since 1985 it was all pretty trivial. The C64's manual covered logic gates well, and a copy of "the way things work" had me building a half-adder later the same day out of a stack of these boards.
One downside, they didn't have a bloody clue what to do next, being "that far ahead". Which wasn't really that far ahead, but principle of the thing stands...
I do wish education generally would leap on the strengths of individuals and develop them. Yes, yes, some fundamentals needed by everyone. But not to the detriment of actually getting good at what interests you!
Re: "I can't go out today and license a RISC-V core,"
I'd be inclined to believe Upton that there isn't a RISC-V SOC that is as cost effective as the ARM options. Its probably beyond expecting the Raspberry gang to be able to rapidly obtain the chip design skills to contemplate evaluating a no-yet-gone-to-silicon design. I'm fairly sure in the next couple of years there will be available parts if not a complete silicon SOC available and then perhaps they can have a look at cross-compiling Rasbian and all the apps to it and launching another revolution in credit-card sized PCs. For now they are best to stick with what works. Pi5 may be a RISK-V design but its too much to ask Upton and co to make that leap now.
Re: "I can't go out today and license a RISC-V core,"
It's true if Sipeed have gone with the unratified AllWinner D1 (on their Nezha SBC) which is nowhere near as powerful as the ARM on a Pi4, and can't sell it for less than £87 direct from China (or £140 all taxes paid on Amazon UK) then obviously the economics aren't there yet.
Pi5 will be ARM just like all the other back-compatible Pis.
Re: "I can't go out today and license a RISC-V core,"
There are already RISC-V SBC offerings from SiFive, Sipeed and others.
Beagleboard are promising two RISC-V SBCs this year, and it will be really interesting to see what they produce. If a 64bit OS on RISC-V gets close to the speed of a Pi 4, then that's sufficient for general computing - at least, that's what the RaspberryPi marketing says!
Then it'll come down to apps, and price.
Re: "I can't go out today and license a RISC-V core,"
Mango Pi also has the AllWinner D1. Tina OS and a single core XuanTie C906.
The Beagle SBC is looking around $120.
Risc V is not ready yet, but it's good that he is looking at it.
Chip crisis
The Pi is a wonderful project to be proud of. But it's a shame you haven't generally been able to buy them for months now. That 45 million figure could have been a fair bit higher but for the chip crisis, which seemed to start almost overnight but which drags on and on....
Re: Chip crisis
I've been able to buy a few from Mouser on this side of the pond. I ordered 3x of the 3B+ and they came in in 6 weeks instead of the quoted 4 months.
Interesting.
I've been doing a fair bit of work with the Pi4. Mostly I like it, but two things irritate me. The first is the physical position of the major I/O. The second is no built-in ability to connect an SSD.
Re: Interesting.
It's a trade off. A processor with fatter I/O would obviously solve that, but half of the point of the Pi is stack em high and sell em cheap using readily available parts that were intended for Phones or similar.
I'm not sure Broadcom (or others) would be desperately interested in making a SOC purely for the Pi Market, though it is not impossible given the volume demand. Fat I/O isn't "really" a requirement for IOT devices either.
Small form factor computers with rather more I/O are available - whether you would want one is another matter of course!
Re: Interesting.
I often see people demanding more memory, features and CPU horsepower for the Pi but I hope Upton and co resist these calls. I'd hate to see the project deviate from its original remit and it ends up no longer being an affordable, low power and compact device.
Re: Interesting.
We are already there. The Pi4 needs active cooling (mostly, as far as I understand it)...
Re: Interesting.
I'm using a Pi4 with passive cooling. The heat sink is the entire chassis, but it works very well.
The Pi4 does need more Ampere than the Pi3. A USB2 hub would not suffice.
Re: Interesting.
Yes, Pi4 works nicely in a FLIRC passive cooling case. I use one, with a 1TB SATA SSD. Perfectly good.
Re: Interesting.
Which is why I've stuck with 3B+ as that's got WiFi and Bluetooth, and more than plenty in the speed and memory departments.
Re: Interesting.
I've said it before, but I'll keep saying it... include an eMMC or similar.
The original idea of using SD cards was great at the time, but SD cards aren't as ubiquitous now - we have to buy them specifically for the Pi. Add (selectable?) USB mass storage mode to write to it and you cover the 'unbrickable' aspect.
(yes, net booting helps, but I would prefer something that can operate independently of the network/server)
Re: Interesting.
eMMC is on the Compute module, but it costs. If it increases the price too much then forget it. 40+ million says it's OK like it it.
Re: Interesting.
Are you kidding? I have to buy SD cards for a ton of stuff... my 3D printer, my digital cameras, some data logging bits. SD cards of all flavors are available at brick & mortar everywhere.
Less of the same
All other Pi's had more processor and RAM but the PiZeroW had just enough of each at a price you can't go past. Brilliant!
Where are they?
I keep hearing about the new Pi models. Then I go to online sources and they're never in stock. Sometimes obsolete models are available, or higher end previous-gen models in expensive bundles. Or I could buy one on Amazon at a huge markup, from profiteers trading on scarcity. It seems like this "disruptive" computer has fallen to the same old greedy vendors and supply chain problems.
Re: Where are they?
Well, if you're needing the latest & greatest... you're going to wait. Have you tried buying a Playstation 5 recently?
I did have to wait a month for some 3B+ from Mouser, but at the time it was deep in virus crisis mode.
How many?
46 million sold. 45 million sitting in cupboards doing nothing.
I have 3 of them myself.
It's too difficult to do anything useful, usually much easier to repurpose an old mobile phone.
Re: How many?
Three useful things you can do with a Pi
Pi Hole
VPN server
Media Server (mini DLNA, Plex etc)
Re: How many?
Well, I've bought nine over the last 2 years and only one is not currently in use, and that's an older 3B
"I can't go out today and license a RISC-V core,"
Now there is a project I wish I had time to get involved in - and he wouldnt need to license the bugger either!