Top Chinese Uni fears Middle Kingdom is way behind on tech – and US sanctions make catching up hard
- Reference: 1644477310
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2022/02/10/china_tech_lagging_report/
- Source link:
The report came from the Peking University Institute of International and Strategic Studies (IISS) and was curated by Wang Jisi, a dean and professor at IISS with the help of doctoral students and research assistants. It focuses on three fields: information technology, artificial intelligence and aerospace.
The Register was able to find an [1]archive of the document and it pulls few punches. It notes China's enormous scientific and technological progress in recent years, but asserts the US will remain the world's leading power in both fields.
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The report states that current tensions between the two nations – which have seen the US cut off access to some tech – hurt both the US and China. But the authors assert China suffers more as it loses access to technologies it either does not possess, or does not execute well.
[3]
[4]
One example offered is China's dependence on imported chips for radio frequency applications – an obvious bottleneck given China's plan for pervasive 5G to create vast industrial networks that improve industry efficiency.
Other areas cited where the US exceled within IT were OS kernels and most industrial software.
[5]
The document also observes that China's enormous funding of key research has narrowed the competition between the two countries, and that China competes as an equal in some fields and leads in a "very small number."
It reports that China has reduced the gap with the US in terms of the numbers of scientific publications, financial investment in research and development and setting international technical standards. It also finds that China leads in number of R&D personnel and patent applications.
But in the US, quality was held to be higher.
[6]
In their consideration of the US's [7]sanctions on China, the authors did not shy from noting their effectiveness – as demonstrated by Huawei's difficulties. But the document also suggests the US's actions are not all motivated by national security concerns.
"The United States has used network and data security as an excuse to suppress Chinese companies such as Huawei and to exaggerate the Chinese threat on a global scale, making it more difficult for relevant international cooperation, and created a trend of politicization," Wang and crew write.
[8]Geomagnetic storm takes out 40 of 49 brand new Starlink satellites
[9]UK.gov threatens to make adults give credit card details for access to Facebook or TikTok
[10]Arm's $66bn sale to Nvidia is off: Deal collapses after world's competition regulators raise concerns
[11]You should read Section 8 of the Unix User's Manual
[12]Microsoft manages a mere 51 security fixes for February update bundle
As for AI, China is reportedly lagging in terms of computing power and algorithms, however China leads at big data. Ultimately, "the US has a clear advantage in original, groundbreaking research," according to the authors.
And in aerospace, the report indicates the US is "absolutely leading" in space transport, human spaceflight, satellite navigation, space comms, and deep space exploration. China is considered a second-tier player in space.
As for civil aviation, "which relies on market players and obeys business logic," the reports finds that "China's disadvantages are extremely obvious."
Steven Okun, senior advisor at McLarty Associates, told The Register "China has many advantages when it comes to key 21st century technologies such as AI – 1.4 billion users and immense engineering talent. But US leadership on foundational technology such as semiconductors provides an edge even in these sectors."
Okun said the potential for a reverse Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) – a brewing potential US government review process for outbound US investment and offshoring to China and other places – would "further maintain that imbalance, albeit with other costs to be borne elsewhere."
But while Okun feels positively about China's tech talent pipeline, the report doesn't paint a rosy picture of it; not at making integrated circuits, operating systems and industrial software, nor AI.
The report reveals that of the Chinese students who study AI in the US, almost 90 per cent stay there and just ten per cent return to China.
The report concludes that China should encourage academic exchanges and international cooperation, continue to invest in R&D, and build a talent pipeline as to avoid further widening competitive gaps – and be poised for a dominant position in emerging fields.
However, China appears to be growing more insular. Its borders remain shut, and it seeks technological autonomy while pursuing a zero-COVID strategy – a strategy that research firm Forrester [13]said initially benefitted the Middle Kingdom but will eventually slow growth in new phases of the pandemic.
As for the article's mysterious disappearance from the IISS website, theories The Register has encountered suggest the document was considered an unpatriotic dampener on the Chinese New Year festivities that followed just days after its release. Or maybe Beijing saw it as insufficiently patriotic reading before the imminent Winter-Olympics.
The paper's frank disclosure of weaknesses that rivals could exploit is seen as another reason for suppressing the study, as is the fact it doesn't fully support the Party line that China's doing great at most things.
What is certain is that Beijing won't explain its actions. ®
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[1] http://cn3.uscnpm.org/model_item.html?action=view&table=article&id=27016
[2] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2YgTwXuHCkCYIAGL1bz485QAAAMU&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[3] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44YgTwXuHCkCYIAGL1bz485QAAAMU&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
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[6] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33YgTwXuHCkCYIAGL1bz485QAAAMU&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[7] https://www.theregister.com/2020/09/28/us_throws_new_sanctions_at/
[8] https://www.theregister.com/2022/02/09/starlink_satellites_burned_by_geomagnetic_storm/
[9] https://www.theregister.com/2022/02/08/age_verification_for_social_media_ukgov_plans/
[10] https://www.theregister.com/2022/02/08/arm_cancels_sale_to_nvidia/
[11] https://www.theregister.com/2022/02/09/section_8_unix_user_manual/
[12] https://www.theregister.com/2022/02/09/microsoft_patch_tuesday/
[13] https://www.theregister.com/2022/02/10/apac_tech_growth_prospects_2022/
[14] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
Re: Wait, what ?
As for Windows, the latest is that Microsoft coders have decided to test just how far they could push their victims customers by announcing that [1]their next update will take EIGHT HOURS .
What I find noteworthy is that Microsoft isn't apologising for this and promising to fix it, no, the fact that they only offer coping strategies suggests they deem this completely acceptable.
That said, maybe it takes 8 hours because outbound connectivity is always less than inbound? Maybe this is simply implementing the ultimate telemetry: copy ALL user content?
[1] https://www.tomshardware.com/news/windows-update-needs-eight-hours
Re: Wait, what ?
"the rampant and very public xenophobia of the previous US resident in the Oval Office"
The fuck does that have to do with it????
China's been on a "Learn, borrow or steal ALL the IP" mission for decades now. It's stated that it's goal was to catch up and surpass the rest of the world in tech and manufacturing LONG before the Trumpa-Lumpa got into the White House. Trump changed absolutely NOTHING in that regard. But hey, it gets you to shout "Orange Man BAD" again, so... at least it makes you happy?
The fact that the article has disappeared, shows the Chinese government has paid attention to it and the negative points are likely to provoke discussion and impetus to improve in those areas.
Or more likely the article gets pulled, the Professor and his students end up in a re-education camp, the University denies every employing a Professor by that name, and the state sponsored hackers start trying to obtain more data in those areas the article outlined.
However, no other changes will be undertaken, as the changes required would need the Communist Party to admit it needs cooperation with the rest of the world to advance it's own goals, which goes against the great leader's glorious vision...
Ah yes, but they're not stupid: they will take note and address it. The challenge is doing it without the US copying and embargoing it as soon as they advance - see "Huawei, ban"..
The police rapidly figured out the whole plan and arrested all criminals, successfully preventing the ....[knock at door, silence]
shed the pride and start competing
stop wasting effort like neutralizing technical terms for inclusiveness (for example, the endless debate of male/female/master/slave...) and start competing. don't assume that you are leading in tech - always have the mindset of an underling. especially after the covid where many people are becoming poorer in general and if you cannot compete dollar per dollar (i am not saying cheaper is better; i mean the worthiness of each dollar spent) the game is lost. don't under-estimate the power of your opponent - workers in china, in many industries, are like robots; they can churn out stuff with much less overhead than others do, especially in terms of lower labour cost, less consideration to the environment, more hazardrous working environment etc. and they copy (ideas, etc.) and feel that's a natural thing to do.
if you want to sell your stuff at higher price, prove that it worth it. sometimes i even wonder if open-source is a good thing - it seems the idea of open-source was bred in a previous era where the world was simpler, and now it feels like giving free weapons to your opponent to shoot at you.
maybe i am biased, but as a hongkonger who are experiencing the increasing aura from mainland i feel it never hurts to be a bit cynical.
Controversial opinion
Could it be that some Chinese universities are just shells, and the real Chinese academic work is done outside of China? The UK is very popular, especially for tech/science subjects, and some UK universities will happily take £22K + fees per term. These students are extremely bright of course, but are not encouraged to express opinions on subjects other than what they're studying.
China should encourage academic exchanges?
Does that mean kidnappings or some other form of forced residence in China? If 90% of your students decide to stay overseas, you have a problem.
Is that right?
“The United States has used network and data security as an excuse to suppress Chinese companies such as Huawei and to exaggerate the Chinese threat on a global scale, making it more difficult for relevant international cooperation, and created a trend of politicization,” Wang and crew wrote.
So not entirely honest and open about the industrial-scale cyber-intrusion, then.
And, despite much discussion of aerospace, our hack fails to mention the military/defence sector. Is that a reflection of an equal and prudent lack in the report?
Cliffnotes
"We need a few more years' worth of wholescale industrial espionage, IP theft and bribing Western politicians before we're fully up to speed. Don't start WW3 until we say so!"
Signed, a collection of CCP "academics"
Wait, what ?
" Other areas cited where the US exceled within IT were OS kernels "
I'm sorry, am I supposed to believe that the Windows 1 0 kernel is a point of excellence ?
Apple's iOS might be slightly marginally better, but I would still not call it excellent.
Linus Torvalds is the only person I know of who could be called excellent at OS kernels. The fact that he lives in the US now is just a coincidence.
Now, China may be behind on tech today, but thanks to the rampant and very public xenophobia of the previous US resident in the Oval Office, it has recieved the impetus it needed to start getting up and standing on its own two feet.
China might be suffering now, but the tech landscape will change and the US (and Europe) is going to have to learn to fight tooth and nail with quality, not just bluster, diplomatic backhandedness and aircraft carriers.
The dragon is waking up, and that is going to shake the market like nobody can imagine today.