US Army journal's top paper from 2021 says Taiwan should destroy TSMC if China invades
(2022/01/05)
- Reference: 1641409270
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2022/01/05/taiwan_should_destory_tsmc_paper/
- Source link:
A top US Army War College paper suggests Taiwan should credibly threaten to eradicate its semiconductor industry if threatened by China so that Beijing would no longer be interested in unification.
The US Army War College showed the paper was its most popular of the year, when it revealed it topped a list of the most downloaded papers of 2021 from its quarterly academic journal Parameters .
The bright idea comes from two American scholars. Their reasoning goes:
[1]
Potential war with the US over Taiwan is no longer a deterrent for China as Beijing believes its military would dominate. Therefore, to make the island unappealing, it needs to be perceived as presenting an "unacceptable economic, political, and strategic costs upon Beijing." As it currently stands, Taiwan appears to be an enticing technology powerhouse ripe for absorption. However, destroying TSMC, an important supplier for China, would create a desperately unwanted major economic crisis on the mainland and make China chipless while it was also engaged in a war effort.
[2]
[3]
"If done correctly, such a strategy could discourage a Chinese invasion of Taiwan while simultaneously lessening the chances of an unwanted great-power conflict, especially if combined with good-faith efforts by the United States to make the status quo more tolerable for both China and Taiwan," [4]wrote [PDF] the authors.
The boffins say that in order for this to succeed, China really does have to believe Taiwan will go through with the threat and suggests designing an automated mechanism to destroy the foundries if China were to invade. And if Taiwan really wants to prove a point, they could create a defensive plan to blow up Chinese chip maker Semiconductor Manufacturing International Company (SMIC) if they are attacked too.
[5]
Unfortunately for those interested in moving forward with the plan, Beijing has already heard about the paper. The Chinese State Council's Taiwan Affairs Office responded on 23 December by denying that TSMC was the reason the country was seeking reunification with Taiwan.
[6]Intel 'regrets' offending China with letter telling suppliers to avoid Xinjiang
[7]Microsoft rang in the new year with a cutesy tweet in C#. Just one problem: The code sucked
[8]At 9 for every 100 workers, robots are rife in Singapore – so we decided to visit them
[9]China's road to homegrown chip glory looks to be going for a RISC-V future
But the plan's not that crazy for two reasons: China is desperate for the computer brains and the tactic has been used before. Sweden made a similar threat during the Second World War regarding iron ore mines to keep the Nazis out.
As for China's struggle in the [10]global chip drought , the US has continually found ways to starve China of semiconductor technology, including [11]trade sanctions and [12]blocking mergers involving Chinese companies.
The plan seems to be working. China decided it wanted to be 70 per cent self-sufficient when it comes to semiconductors by 2025. In February 2020, less than [13]6 per cent of the silicon the Middle Kingdom needed was made domestically.
Although the paper may be an endorsement of this strategy from the two authors, it is not one from the US military. The publication is [14]described as "a refereed forum for contemporary strategy and landpower issues" that "furthers the education and professional development of senior military officers and members of government and academia concerned with national security affairs."
[15]
The second through 10th most downloaded papers for the year can be found [16]here .
Finally, we note TSMC is [17]building chip fabs in the United States. ®
Get our [18]Tech Resources
[1] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_security/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2YdYjGlBWqsDjnYqtgM-PKQAAAEw&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
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[4] https://press.armywarcollege.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3089&context=parameters
[5] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_security/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44YdYjGlBWqsDjnYqtgM-PKQAAAEw&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[6] https://www.theregister.com/2021/12/23/intel_regrets_offending_china_with_xianjing_opinion/
[7] https://www.theregister.com/2022/01/04/microsoft_date_comparison_tweet/
[8] https://www.theregister.com/2022/01/05/singapore_robot_holiday/
[9] https://www.theregister.com/2021/12/09/china_homegrown_chips/
[10] https://www.theregister.com/2021/06/01/automakers_pc_chip_shortage_explained/
[11] https://www.theregister.com/2020/09/28/us_throws_new_sanctions_at/
[12] https://www.theregister.com/2021/12/15/magnachip_wise_road_merger_dead/
[13] https://www.theregister.com/2021/02/22/ic_insights_china_silicon_market_share/
[14] https://press.armywarcollege.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3089&context=parameters
[15] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_security/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33YdYjGlBWqsDjnYqtgM-PKQAAAEw&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[16] https://press.armywarcollege.edu/parameters/topdownloads.html
[17] https://www.theregister.com/2021/05/04/tsmc_arizona_fabs/
[18] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
The US Army War College showed the paper was its most popular of the year, when it revealed it topped a list of the most downloaded papers of 2021 from its quarterly academic journal Parameters .
The bright idea comes from two American scholars. Their reasoning goes:
[1]
Potential war with the US over Taiwan is no longer a deterrent for China as Beijing believes its military would dominate. Therefore, to make the island unappealing, it needs to be perceived as presenting an "unacceptable economic, political, and strategic costs upon Beijing." As it currently stands, Taiwan appears to be an enticing technology powerhouse ripe for absorption. However, destroying TSMC, an important supplier for China, would create a desperately unwanted major economic crisis on the mainland and make China chipless while it was also engaged in a war effort.
[2]
[3]
"If done correctly, such a strategy could discourage a Chinese invasion of Taiwan while simultaneously lessening the chances of an unwanted great-power conflict, especially if combined with good-faith efforts by the United States to make the status quo more tolerable for both China and Taiwan," [4]wrote [PDF] the authors.
The boffins say that in order for this to succeed, China really does have to believe Taiwan will go through with the threat and suggests designing an automated mechanism to destroy the foundries if China were to invade. And if Taiwan really wants to prove a point, they could create a defensive plan to blow up Chinese chip maker Semiconductor Manufacturing International Company (SMIC) if they are attacked too.
[5]
Unfortunately for those interested in moving forward with the plan, Beijing has already heard about the paper. The Chinese State Council's Taiwan Affairs Office responded on 23 December by denying that TSMC was the reason the country was seeking reunification with Taiwan.
[6]Intel 'regrets' offending China with letter telling suppliers to avoid Xinjiang
[7]Microsoft rang in the new year with a cutesy tweet in C#. Just one problem: The code sucked
[8]At 9 for every 100 workers, robots are rife in Singapore – so we decided to visit them
[9]China's road to homegrown chip glory looks to be going for a RISC-V future
But the plan's not that crazy for two reasons: China is desperate for the computer brains and the tactic has been used before. Sweden made a similar threat during the Second World War regarding iron ore mines to keep the Nazis out.
As for China's struggle in the [10]global chip drought , the US has continually found ways to starve China of semiconductor technology, including [11]trade sanctions and [12]blocking mergers involving Chinese companies.
The plan seems to be working. China decided it wanted to be 70 per cent self-sufficient when it comes to semiconductors by 2025. In February 2020, less than [13]6 per cent of the silicon the Middle Kingdom needed was made domestically.
Although the paper may be an endorsement of this strategy from the two authors, it is not one from the US military. The publication is [14]described as "a refereed forum for contemporary strategy and landpower issues" that "furthers the education and professional development of senior military officers and members of government and academia concerned with national security affairs."
[15]
The second through 10th most downloaded papers for the year can be found [16]here .
Finally, we note TSMC is [17]building chip fabs in the United States. ®
Get our [18]Tech Resources
[1] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_security/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2YdYjGlBWqsDjnYqtgM-PKQAAAEw&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[2] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_security/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44YdYjGlBWqsDjnYqtgM-PKQAAAEw&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[3] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_security/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33YdYjGlBWqsDjnYqtgM-PKQAAAEw&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[4] https://press.armywarcollege.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3089&context=parameters
[5] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_security/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44YdYjGlBWqsDjnYqtgM-PKQAAAEw&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[6] https://www.theregister.com/2021/12/23/intel_regrets_offending_china_with_xianjing_opinion/
[7] https://www.theregister.com/2022/01/04/microsoft_date_comparison_tweet/
[8] https://www.theregister.com/2022/01/05/singapore_robot_holiday/
[9] https://www.theregister.com/2021/12/09/china_homegrown_chips/
[10] https://www.theregister.com/2021/06/01/automakers_pc_chip_shortage_explained/
[11] https://www.theregister.com/2020/09/28/us_throws_new_sanctions_at/
[12] https://www.theregister.com/2021/12/15/magnachip_wise_road_merger_dead/
[13] https://www.theregister.com/2021/02/22/ic_insights_china_silicon_market_share/
[14] https://press.armywarcollege.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3089&context=parameters
[15] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_security/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33YdYjGlBWqsDjnYqtgM-PKQAAAEw&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[16] https://press.armywarcollege.edu/parameters/topdownloads.html
[17] https://www.theregister.com/2021/05/04/tsmc_arizona_fabs/
[18] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
How many of those downloads came from the PRC?
elDog
Just asking.
I used to write scenarios for brass (military and non). They are a dime a dozen (well, more like $1M per). Should be taken with grains of salt. However sometimes one of these scenarios is latched onto by someone with too much authority and frequently not enough brains and becomes some form of reality.
No, not TSMC
Bitsminer
PRC wants repatriation of Stinky tofu (臭豆腐). Nothing less will do.
(If you've never tasted/endured it, you are now forewarned.)
Alan J. Wylie
an automated mechanism to destroy the foundries
Dr. Strangelove would be proud. Taiwan needs to be carefully considering its Power Over Ethernet vulnerabilities
(I'll get my coat)
Blazde
Dr. Strangelove would be proud
Like the Swedish, what the Taiwanese really need is a credible plan to fill in their mine-shafts! I'll get writing a paper at once..
US Army plans to destroy world economy.
Ian Mason
" US Army journal's top paper from 2021 says Taiwan should destroy TSMC if China invades "
And then watch the Western economy tank as the world supply of all the many various vendor's chips TSMC manufacture for them dries up. One only has to watch what's happening at the moment with semiconductor shortages to get a flavour of that. TSMC has a 50% market share of the total world silicon foundry market, heavily biased toward the more crucial high density and low power areas of the market.
In other news, Pinocchio cuts off his own nose to spite his face.
Re: US Army plans to destroy world economy.
Anonymous Coward
More crucial only for gaming PCs and smartphones - not for military kit or power parts.
The current semiconductor shortage that is crippling industry isn't a shortage of 3090 graphics cards or other 5nm parts
I'm not convinced. China's need to re-absorb Taiwan is deeply idealogical rather than motivated by economic considerations. I expect a Punic Wars solution with all of Taiwan salted and unliveable would be acceptable to Beijing, and certainly dear old Not Omicron or Nu.
What does that say about US warfighters' insight.