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Quantum computing to grow by 50 per cent per year until 2027, when revenue will still be chump change

(2021/11/30)


Don't rush to convert your analog computing skills into the quantum realm – analyst firm International Data Corporation (IDC) reckons that in 2027 the annual market for quantum computing globally will still only be worth $8.6 billion. Which sounds like a lot, but really isn't.

While the firm [1]predicts quantum tech will grow fast in coming years – it predicts CAGR of 50 per cent between now and 2027 – even that rapid growth will leave the industry's annual revenue somewhat modest. By way of comparison, Dell's most recent quarterly revenue figure was $28.4 billion – most of it made selling boring old classical computers.

Investments in the quantum computing market – including those made both privately and publicly – are estimated to grow at a six-year CAGR (2021–2027) of 11.3 per cent to almost $16.4 billion by the end of the six-year period. That's about twice what the entire quantum industry's annual revenue is expected to hit the same year.

[2]

"Like any breakthrough technology of the last few decades, the industry will pour billions of dollars into making the technology commonplace and ready for mass adoption," reports IDC.

[3]Warning: China planning to swipe a bunch of data soon, so quantum computers can decrypt it later

[4]A diverse range of processing units linked via interconnects. Sounds familiar? Yes, it's IBM's quantum computing

[5]Quantum computing startups pull in millions as VCs rush to get ahead of the game

The analyst firm reckons 2021 is a "pivotal year" for the industry, as this is the time that vendors are making significant efforts to define quantum computing roadmaps, find new funding opportunities or partner up – all to prime their "quantum ecosystem" for the day it pays off down the road.

IDC's analysts and researchers offer key advice about priming organizations for their "quantum journey" – and preparation is key. Being ready for a quantum ecosystem will undoubtedly have later payoffs – just don't expect them to be huge a mere five years hence.

[6]

When markets are new, small change makes for impressive results – like a New Year's resolution to start exercising that makes the first journey off the couch an infinite improvement on previous lack of efforts. Rapid growth for quantum computing is therefore to be expected. How long it will take to produce something sleek and eye-catching – rather than just sweat and effort – remains uncertain. ®

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[1] https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS48414121

[2] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2YaYEXwmhUl0RGHIeEjtsSwAAAEs&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0

[3] https://www.theregister.com/2021/11/29/china_quantum_ai_offensive/

[4] https://www.theregister.com/2021/11/16/ibms_quantum_system/

[5] https://www.theregister.com/2021/10/08/quantum_computing_startups/

[6] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44YaYEXwmhUl0RGHIeEjtsSwAAAEs&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0

[7] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/



Filippo

Or, in other words, quantum computing is projected to be a specialist field, with important specialist applications. That's quite respectable, if it happens.

Anonymous Coward

HR will make 8 years Quantum computing experience mandatory in Job specs when it's finally developed.

€1.8 billion from French government

Len

Do those amounts include the €1.8 billion that the French government have poured into developing a quantum computing research ecosystem? I was quite impressed when I read that.

[1]What Europe can learn from France when it comes to quantum computing

And I suppose it makes sense. For a country the size of France, 1.8 bn is chump change but if it can help spur an industry to rival China and the US then it's money well invested. If it doesn't provide a return on investment in ten years it's a shame but no major issue.

[1] https://sifted.eu/articles/france-quantum-computing-investment/

Re: €1.8 billion from French government

Anonymous Coward

Australia have been putting money into quantum computing since the 1990s. They currently fund the Centre for Quantum Computation and Communication Technology:

https://www.cqc2t.org/

Re: €1.8 billion from French government

Anonymous Coward

No, its a big issue as it means your assessment criteria aren't great and that research money could've gone elsewhere to something better.

Like fusion (snigger!)

A fool and their money are easily parted.

druck

That's still a lot of people paying a lot of money for something that doesn't work now, and still wont work in 2027.

Re: A fool and their money are easily parted.

Ian Johnston

That's why nobody dares to take the lid off and look inside.

Re: A fool and their money are easily parted.

LionelB

Well sure, they don't want to kill the cat.

Chump Change vs Champion Commission Charge

amanfromMars 1

If you believe the revenue quantum will generate will still be only chump change as opposed to overwhelmingly futures and markets leading, be respectfully advised that you are fundamentally and radically mistaken and misinformed.

And as virtually and relatively unknown as it might be to many a bod/bot, quantum is certainly presently in many specialised circles* widely recognised as a vital subject of immediate interest because of its unprecedented disruptive power and unrivalled revolutionary growth potential.

* ..... [1]https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2021/11/29/nations-vie-for-growing-quantum-cryptography-market

[1] https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2021/11/29/nations-vie-for-growing-quantum-cryptography-market

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