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NASA delays crewed moon landing until 2025, citing technical infeasibility

(2021/11/10)


NASA has delayed the first Artemis crewed mission to the moon until 2025, rather than the previously planned 2024.

The goal date of 2024 was originally set by the Trump administration in 2017. The failure of that timetable is not uniquely Trumpy. George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush had done similar, with Jr stating the US must do so by 2020 and Daddy Bush giving much more vague directives.

“The Trump administration’s target of 2024 human landing was not grounded in technical feasibility,” NASA’s head honcho Bill Nelson said on a conference call during which he delivered the first major Artemis update under the Biden-Harris Administration.

[1]

He also gave some dollar amounts, announcing the development of the Orion spacecraft used in the Artemis mission has reached US$9.3bn since 2012 through the first crewed flight test to take place no later than May 2024.

[2]

[3]

The Artemis mission includes a series of missions that use NASA's Space Launch System (SLS) - the most powerful rocket the agency has ever built. Artemis I (planned 2022) is an uncrewed test of the SLS and its accompanying spacecraft Orion. Artemis II (2024) will be the first crewed test flight of the series and should sail 40,000 miles past the Moon, further in space than any human have travelled before. Only after those are completed will the Artemis III lunar landing occur. An Artemis IV is also planned for 2026, and Artemises V through VIII at this point are “proposed.”

As if the timeline for the Artemis moon landing wasn’t aggressive enough in engineering terms, NASA has been battling legal issues since Blue Origin [4]sued the space agency claiming it unfairly awarded rival SpaceX a US$2.94B contract to develop the lunar lander slated for use in Artemis III.

[5]Now that's a splash down: Astronauts spend 8-hour trip to Earth in diapers after SpaceX capsule toilet breaks

[6]NASA advised to study up on what open source, free software, and permissive licenses actually mean

[7]NASA picks spot at Moon's South Pole to perform first ice-drilling experiment

“We’re pleased with the U.S. Court of Federal Claims’ thorough evaluation of NASA’s source selection process for the human landing system (HLS), and we have already resumed conversations with SpaceX. It’s clear we’re both eager to get back to work together and establish a new timeline for our initial lunar demonstration missions,” [8]said Nelson, who then reassured his audience that returning to the Moon as quickly and safely as possible is an agency priority.

In addition to the technical unfeasibility on a tight schedule and the lawsuit, the NASA administrator cited COVID-19, Congress not appropriating sufficient funds for the SLS competition and general first-time development challenges as adding to the delay.

[9]

Nelson did say that NASA plans to issue a formal solicitation next spring for recurring human landing systems services, so maybe that will be Jeff Bezos' shot at a fat government contract.

SpaceX, meanwhile, is pressing ahead with development of its own "Starship", a rocket with greater payload capacity than SLS and also better re-usability. NASA has pondered using Starship as part of the Artemis program, including for crewed lunar missions. ®

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[1] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2YYumcs8Ka0kcGiILAwVOXQAAAAE&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0

[2] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44YYumcs8Ka0kcGiILAwVOXQAAAAE&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0

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[4] https://www.theregister.com/2021/08/16/blue_origin_lawsuit/

[5] https://www.theregister.com/2021/11/09/broken_toilet_spacex/

[6] https://www.theregister.com/2021/11/05/nasa_software_licenses/

[7] https://www.theregister.com/2021/11/04/moon_mining_location/

[8] https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-outlines-challenges-progress-for-artemis-moon-missions

[9] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44YYumcs8Ka0kcGiILAwVOXQAAAAE&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0

[10] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/



"awarded [...] contract to develop the lunar lander"

LDS

Without which any moon landing is actually quite "technically infeasible" - NASA can plan a moon landing only when it has a working one.

Re: "awarded [...] contract to develop the lunar lander"

seven of five

Bah, landing is easy.

edit: depending on who is inside the lander, a later takeoff (or rather, the lack of it) might be the preferred option.

Dust off Apollo

Steve Kerr

Just saying!

Shame that over the years it's all been turned into bean counters and strangled funding for Nasa where so much science and technology has come off of the back of pushing frontiers.

Would be good to see a second moon landing in my lifetime though the first I would've been mostly going "goo goo goo" and soiling nappies.

Re: Dust off Apollo

Paul Herber

'going "goo goo goo" and soiling nappies.'

That can happen at both ends of life.

Re: Dust off Apollo

A Non e-mouse

The problem with re-doing Apollo/Saturn V (apart from the tiny fact that they don't actually know how they built the darn things) is that the program was "of its time". And by that, I don't mean technically, but socially & politically. Now, there is much less drive to go back.

Re: Dust off Apollo

Alan_Peery

I think part of the reason the drive is less is exactly because the ambition is less. When we were coming up on Apollo 8, there were plans for multiple missions, locations, etc, that were being actively circulated in the main press. Now we see a less ambitious proposal, it sparks less excitement.

So NASA will *never* make it to the Moon

Pete 2

> the first Artemis crewed mission to the moon until 2025

Yet a few months ago [1]SpaceX said they would be ready to send people to the Moon "before 2024".

Even given SpaceX's rather optimstic and frequently missed projections AND combine that with NASA's dates slipping in almost real-time, there is a pretty good chance than a musky rocket will make it there before a NASA manned mission.

At which point, there will be a lot of american politicians asking what would be the point of a NASA mission?

A question that would have few answers that did not include the word (or implication) "pork".

[1] https://www.newsweek.com/elon-musk-spacex-ready-humans-moon-sooner-2024-1619475

Re: So NASA will *never* make it to the Moon

ArrZarr

Given the rate of progress that SpaceX has shown it can pull off, I'm not exactly certain that they won't pull off a manned lunar mission before NASA.

Re: So NASA will *never* make it to the Moon

John Robson

Neither will I be.

Dragon to orbit, dock with Lunar starship.

Leave dragon in orbit of either the earth or the moon.

Starship to moon, land, take off, redock with dragon, return.

What's the big deal about throwing away perfectly good Shuttle main engines along with slightly stretched SRBs - reusable before it was feasible.

The Magician of the Ivory Tower brought his latest invention for the
master programmer to examine. The magician wheeled a large black box into the
master's office while the master waited in silence.
"This is an integrated, distributed, general-purpose workstation,"
began the magician, "ergonomically designed with a proprietary operating
system, sixth generation languages, and multiple state of the art user
interfaces. It took my assistants several hundred man years to construct.
Is it not amazing?"
The master raised his eyebrows slightly. "It is indeed amazing," he
said.
"Corporate Headquarters has commanded," continued the magician, "that
everyone use this workstation as a platform for new programs. Do you agree
to this?"
"Certainly," replied the master, "I will have it transported to the
data center immediately!" And the magician returned to his tower, well
pleased.
Several days later, a novice wandered into the office of the master
programmer and said, "I cannot find the listing for my new program. Do
you know where it might be?"
"Yes," replied the master, "the listings are stacked on the platform
in the data center."
-- Geoffrey James, "The Tao of Programming"