Good news: There's a slightly increased chance of asteroid Bennu hitting Earth. Bad news: It's still really slight
(2021/08/12)
- Reference: 1628748667
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2021/08/12/nasa_bennu_collision/
- Source link:
Bennu, already considered the second most dangerous asteroid in the Solar System, has a slightly increased chance of hitting Earth in the coming centuries, NASA said this week.
There is, according to the latest calculations, a 1-in-2,700 chance (0.037 per cent) that the half-kilometre-wide space rock will collide with Earth on September 24, 2182, and a 1-in-1,750 (0.057 per cent) chance of a strike by 2300 – a tiny bit higher than previous estimates.
The spinning top-shaped space rock is one of the two most hazardous known asteroids in the Solar System – hazardous to Earth, that is – with the other being 1950 DA, which has an [1]estimated 0.3 per cent chance of hitting our planet on March 16, 2880. Astronomers are much more familiar with Bennu, however, thanks to NASA’s OSIRIS-REx mission during which a spacecraft orbited the asteroid for years.
[2]
The probe briefly touched down on the surface to [3]obtain a sample of Bennu's regolith. The craft is [4]heading back to Earth , where it is expected to arrive on September 24, 2023. Data already collected by that mission was used to recalculate Bennu's path and thus its chance of whacking into Earth.
[5]
[6]
“The OSIRIS-REx data give us so much more precise information, we can test the limits of our models and calculate the future trajectory of Bennu to a very high degree of certainty through 2135,” [7]said Davide Farnocchia, of the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies ( [8]CNEOS ), which is run by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). “We’ve never modeled an asteroid’s trajectory to this precision before.”
Farnocchia and his colleagues presented their [9]results on Tuesday in the journal Icarus. The NASA man [10]added that "the impact probability went up just a little bit, but it's not a significant change."
[11]
OSIRIS-REx has provided scientists with the most accurate data yet on Bennu’s size, shape, mass, spin, chemical composition, and orbital motion. There are multiple factors to consider when trying to map its path as it travels through the Solar System. The team had to model the gravitational interactions between the asteroid and the Sun, and other planets and their satellites, as well as more than 300 other space rocks, and pressure from the solar wind.
[12]NASA's first asteroid sample on its way to Earth after OSIRIS-REx boosts for home
[13]NASA trying to stuff excess baggage into OSIRIS-REx after too-successful asteroid scoop
[14]We got it! Japanese space agency confirms its probe has Ryugu asteroid samples
[15]We know there are a lot of, er, distractions right now but NASA's got some sweet video of its asteroid rubble raiser
Although the researchers had a good idea of the asteroid’s path, it can be nudged by something called the Yarkovsky effect. As Bennu spins, the side of its body facing the Sun absorbs heat and rotates away. The heat is then radiated back into space as it cools down, releasing infrared energy that generates a small push on the asteroid. The effects are minuscule though can adjust Bennu’s motion over long-enough periods of time. Yarkovsky effect measurements from the OSIRIS-REx probe were thus used to fine-tune Bennu's trajectory.
NASA has a good explanation of the Yarkovsky effect and its impact on Bennu traveling through gravitational keyholes in the video below.
[16]Youtube Video
“The Yarkovsky effect will act on all asteroids of all sizes, and while it has been measured for a small fraction of the asteroid population from afar, OSIRIS-REx gave us the first opportunity to measure it in detail as Bennu traveled around the Sun,” explained Steve Chesley, co-author of the paper and a senior research scientist at JPL.
[17]
“The effect on Bennu is equivalent to the weight of three grapes constantly acting on the asteroid – tiny, yes, but significant when determining Bennu’s future impact chances over the decades and centuries to come.”
Also, NASA did not significantly alter Bennu’s motion when its probe ejected a puff of nitrogen gas to kick up dirt to collect and return to Earth.
“The force exerted on Bennu’s surface during the [18]Touch-and-Go (TAG) event were tiny even in comparison to the effects of other small forces considered,” Rich Burns, the project manager of the OSIRIS-REx mission, who was not directly involved in the research, said. “TAG did not alter Bennu’s likelihood of impacting Earth.” ®
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[1] https://academic.oup.com/gji/article/153/3/F6/2122672
[2] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2YRTxXoS4iJ2ZVLZAlfBHJgAAAMc&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[3] https://www.theregister.com/2021/05/10/nasas_asteroid_sample/
[4] https://www.theregister.com/2020/10/21/nasa_bennu_sample/
[5] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44YRTxXoS4iJ2ZVLZAlfBHJgAAAMc&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
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[7] https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/nasa-spacecraft-provides-insight-into-asteroid-bennus-future-orbit
[8] https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/about/cneos.html
[9] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0019103521002591
[10] https://www.npr.org/2021/08/11/1026681421/got-plans-for-sept-24-2182-this-big-asteroid-might-too
[11] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44YRTxXoS4iJ2ZVLZAlfBHJgAAAMc&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[12] https://www.theregister.com/2021/05/10/nasas_asteroid_sample/
[13] https://www.theregister.com/2020/10/26/osiris_rex_excess_baggage/
[14] https://www.theregister.com/2020/12/15/jaxa_asteroid_samples/
[15] https://www.theregister.com/2020/10/22/bennu_scoop_video/
[16] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cb9IL8AqrGA
[17] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33YRTxXoS4iJ2ZVLZAlfBHJgAAAMc&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[18] https://www.theregister.com/2020/10/22/bennu_scoop_video/
[19] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
There is, according to the latest calculations, a 1-in-2,700 chance (0.037 per cent) that the half-kilometre-wide space rock will collide with Earth on September 24, 2182, and a 1-in-1,750 (0.057 per cent) chance of a strike by 2300 – a tiny bit higher than previous estimates.
The spinning top-shaped space rock is one of the two most hazardous known asteroids in the Solar System – hazardous to Earth, that is – with the other being 1950 DA, which has an [1]estimated 0.3 per cent chance of hitting our planet on March 16, 2880. Astronomers are much more familiar with Bennu, however, thanks to NASA’s OSIRIS-REx mission during which a spacecraft orbited the asteroid for years.
[2]
The probe briefly touched down on the surface to [3]obtain a sample of Bennu's regolith. The craft is [4]heading back to Earth , where it is expected to arrive on September 24, 2023. Data already collected by that mission was used to recalculate Bennu's path and thus its chance of whacking into Earth.
[5]
[6]
“The OSIRIS-REx data give us so much more precise information, we can test the limits of our models and calculate the future trajectory of Bennu to a very high degree of certainty through 2135,” [7]said Davide Farnocchia, of the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies ( [8]CNEOS ), which is run by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). “We’ve never modeled an asteroid’s trajectory to this precision before.”
Farnocchia and his colleagues presented their [9]results on Tuesday in the journal Icarus. The NASA man [10]added that "the impact probability went up just a little bit, but it's not a significant change."
[11]
OSIRIS-REx has provided scientists with the most accurate data yet on Bennu’s size, shape, mass, spin, chemical composition, and orbital motion. There are multiple factors to consider when trying to map its path as it travels through the Solar System. The team had to model the gravitational interactions between the asteroid and the Sun, and other planets and their satellites, as well as more than 300 other space rocks, and pressure from the solar wind.
[12]NASA's first asteroid sample on its way to Earth after OSIRIS-REx boosts for home
[13]NASA trying to stuff excess baggage into OSIRIS-REx after too-successful asteroid scoop
[14]We got it! Japanese space agency confirms its probe has Ryugu asteroid samples
[15]We know there are a lot of, er, distractions right now but NASA's got some sweet video of its asteroid rubble raiser
Although the researchers had a good idea of the asteroid’s path, it can be nudged by something called the Yarkovsky effect. As Bennu spins, the side of its body facing the Sun absorbs heat and rotates away. The heat is then radiated back into space as it cools down, releasing infrared energy that generates a small push on the asteroid. The effects are minuscule though can adjust Bennu’s motion over long-enough periods of time. Yarkovsky effect measurements from the OSIRIS-REx probe were thus used to fine-tune Bennu's trajectory.
NASA has a good explanation of the Yarkovsky effect and its impact on Bennu traveling through gravitational keyholes in the video below.
[16]Youtube Video
“The Yarkovsky effect will act on all asteroids of all sizes, and while it has been measured for a small fraction of the asteroid population from afar, OSIRIS-REx gave us the first opportunity to measure it in detail as Bennu traveled around the Sun,” explained Steve Chesley, co-author of the paper and a senior research scientist at JPL.
[17]
“The effect on Bennu is equivalent to the weight of three grapes constantly acting on the asteroid – tiny, yes, but significant when determining Bennu’s future impact chances over the decades and centuries to come.”
Also, NASA did not significantly alter Bennu’s motion when its probe ejected a puff of nitrogen gas to kick up dirt to collect and return to Earth.
“The force exerted on Bennu’s surface during the [18]Touch-and-Go (TAG) event were tiny even in comparison to the effects of other small forces considered,” Rich Burns, the project manager of the OSIRIS-REx mission, who was not directly involved in the research, said. “TAG did not alter Bennu’s likelihood of impacting Earth.” ®
Get our [19]Tech Resources
[1] https://academic.oup.com/gji/article/153/3/F6/2122672
[2] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2YRTxXoS4iJ2ZVLZAlfBHJgAAAMc&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[3] https://www.theregister.com/2021/05/10/nasas_asteroid_sample/
[4] https://www.theregister.com/2020/10/21/nasa_bennu_sample/
[5] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44YRTxXoS4iJ2ZVLZAlfBHJgAAAMc&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
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[7] https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/nasa-spacecraft-provides-insight-into-asteroid-bennus-future-orbit
[8] https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/about/cneos.html
[9] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0019103521002591
[10] https://www.npr.org/2021/08/11/1026681421/got-plans-for-sept-24-2182-this-big-asteroid-might-too
[11] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44YRTxXoS4iJ2ZVLZAlfBHJgAAAMc&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[12] https://www.theregister.com/2021/05/10/nasas_asteroid_sample/
[13] https://www.theregister.com/2020/10/26/osiris_rex_excess_baggage/
[14] https://www.theregister.com/2020/12/15/jaxa_asteroid_samples/
[15] https://www.theregister.com/2020/10/22/bennu_scoop_video/
[16] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cb9IL8AqrGA
[17] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33YRTxXoS4iJ2ZVLZAlfBHJgAAAMc&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[18] https://www.theregister.com/2020/10/22/bennu_scoop_video/
[19] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
Lucky it's not 1,000,000:1
Chris G
Nine times out of ten it would hit the Earth!
Re: Lucky it's not 1,000,000:1
UCAP
As the late, great, PTerry would have said: Oook!
Re: Lucky it's not 1,000,000:1
Joe W
Considering people hope to win the lottery (at 1:60 million or thereabouts) this is not such a small chance...
Re: Lucky it's not 1,000,000:1
werdsmith
Considering people hope to win the lottery (at 1:60 million or thereabouts) this is not such a small chance...
"People" do win lotteries almost every week though. If there were as many Earths as there were lottery players then the asteroid would hit.
TAG did not alter Bennu’s likelihood of impacting Earth
cookieMonster
Of course they’d say that. They would hardly say “Opps, our bad”
Re: TAG did not alter Bennu’s likelihood of impacting Earth
Eclectic Man
And after visiting Bennu there has been an increased interest in manned spaceflight, setting up a new Moon base and visiting Mars.
I wonder why?
six_tymes
2182? I'm sure pelosi and biden will still be politicians then.
doh!
Andy The Hat
"1 in 2,700 and falling ..." noted Trillian. Zaphod didn't see the big rock hurtling towards him as his view had unexpectedly turned a delightful shade of dark indigo.
By the way, the "weight of three grapes" is not exactly helpful, it's not even derived from an El Reg approved unit*.
Is it the weight of three grapes on the surface of the asteroid or the weight of three grapes at sea level on the Earth? And are they the little squitty grapes at the bottom of the tray in Morrisons or big fresh ones from Waitrose? And does it include any diamegnetic repulsion (yes, you can repel grapes with a magnet, look up the grape dumbell experiment, works with lots of other 'non magnetic' things too at least to the size of oranges ... apart from the ones that confuse the issue by being paramagnetic ... :-) )? So many questions ...
*Surely the gravitational force experienced by one Bulgarian Fun Bag when the encapsulant is standing on the tarmac at Schipol Airport would be the El Reg unit of force?
“We’ve never modeled an asteroid’s trajectory to this precision before”
Pascal Monett
I'm not entirely sure that that is actually reassuring . . .
I'm sure by then it will not be a problem even if it was going to impact Earth, we would have killed off everything on the planet by then anyway.